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Global Power Shift Xuewu Gu Structural Power in the Global Age Why Modernity is Ending and Globality Prevails Global Power Shift Series Editor Xuewu Gu, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Managing Editor Hendrik W. Ohnesorge, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Advisory Editors G. John Ikenberry, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA Canrong Jin, Renmin University of Beijing, Beijing, China Srikanth Kondapalli, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India Beate Neuss, Chemnitz University of Technology, Chemnitz, Germany Carla Norrlof, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Dingli Shen, Fudan University, Shanghai, China Kazuhiko Togo, Kyoto Sanyo University, Tokyo, Japan Roberto Zoboli, Catholic University of Milan, Milano, Italy Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of international relations taking place between industrialized countries and emerging powers, as well as between states and non-state actors. However, there is a dearth of theoretical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent approaches to understand and measure the transformation. The central issues to be addressed include theoretical questions and empirical puzzles: How can studies of global power shift and the rise of ‘emerging powers’ benefit from existing theories, and which alternative aspects and theoretical approaches might be suitable? How can the meanings, perceptions, dynamics, and consequences of global power shift be determined and assessed? This edited series will include highly innovative research on these topics. It aims to bring together scholars from all major world regions as well as different disciplines, including political science, economics and human geography. The overall aim is to discuss and possibly blend their different approaches and provide new frameworks for understanding global affairs and the governance of global power shifts. All titles in this series are peer-reviewed. This book series is indexed in Scopus. Xuewu Gu Structural Power in the Global Age Why Modernity is Ending and Globality Prevails Xuewu Gu Center for Global Studies University of Bonn Bonn, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany ISSN 2198-7343 ISSN 2198-7351 (electronic) Global Power Shift ISBN 978-3-031-15466-9 ISBN 978-3-031-15467-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15467-6 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Preface: Modernity, Globality, and Structural Power The purpose of this book is to provide a globality-oriented and structural power- founded perspective of human life and international relations in the “Global Age.” In the style of Martin Albrow,1 I argue that the Global Age is rapidly supplanting the Modern Age. Things that are taking place in the twenty-first century cannot any longer be efficiently described, understood, and explained with the concept of modernity, which originated more than 500 years ago when Spain was postulated as the first “modern state” of the world in 1492.2 This is particularly true when it comes, for example, to grasp the logic of the enor- mous transformative impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on global economics; the high degree of compatibility of “Global Navigation Satellite Systems” of the United States, China, Russia, and the EU; the global race for 5G, or the devastating failure of NATO troops in Afghanistan. The reason is simple: The Global Age is, as distinct from the Modern Age, coined by globality of things with “its own shape and key characteristics.” “Seeking to fit global phenomena into the frame of modernity only compounds the sense of dissonance and fragmentation”, 3 as Albrow anticipated almost thirty years ago. However, the inability of modernity to precisely reflect human life in the Global Age is not mainly attributed to its ignorance of the “dichotomy ratio- nality/irrationality” or its character as “a time reference” that “highlights innovation and obsolescence, shifts and rejects the useless old, applauds purpose and control and hence expansion”,4 as Albrow has assumed. Rather, it has largely to do with the ethnocentric character that is inherent in the concept of modernity from birth on. In the proper meaning of the word, the figure of modernity belongs to categories of thought of cultural exceptionalism. Indeed, the concept of modernity was a product of Eurocentrism. Like all ethnocentric products, be it American exceptionalism, 1 Albrow, Martin: The Global Age. State and Society beyond Modernity, Stanford 1996. 2 Dussel, Enrique: Europe, Modernity, and Eurocentrism, in: Nepantla: Views from South, Vol. 1, No. 3, 2000, p. 470, accessed on January 10, 2022. 3 Albrow: The Global Age, p. 119. 4 Ibid., p. 25, p. 83. v vi Preface:Modernity,Globality,andStructuralPower orientalism, or the Chinese concept of “Tianxia,” Eurocentrism has proven, refer- ring to Enrique Dussel’s critique on it, “provincial and regional”,5 if not parochial and narcissistic. Continuing to use such an ethnocentric concept to expound issues in a globalized world is neither rational (anyway rationality is said to be the basic principle of modernity) nor factually founded. Global Age calls for Global Thought. Indeed, the Covid-19 pandemic has virtual- ized and is still virtualizing how authentically we are situating in an “epochal shift” with huge uncertainty about whether and to what extent the “modernity” reached by industrialization, urbanization, and democratization could survive. Possibly, the war of Russia on Ukraine and its geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences could accelerate the shift from the Modern Age to the Global Age. Those who predicate, however, that the war could generate “The End of Globalization”6 should pay more attention to the fact that it is the intrinsic nature of capitalism to expand globally, driven by its congenital impetus to accumulate profits endlessly. As long as countries, especially the leading nations in the world including China with its state-steered capi- talism, refuse to return to a socialistic planning economy or to agricultural autarky leading to a massive loss of wealth and security, they have no choice but to stick to capitalism. Globality is, however, the DNA of capitalism. A high degree of globality of capital is the root of the prosperity of human life at the present. Even though processes of globalization generating globality of things may weaken or suffer from interruptions by political conflicts on and off, global dimensions of our life already reached by the global penetration of capitalism, accelerated and reinforced by digital revolution, and telecommunication innovations will remain persistent. Globality is both a condition reference and a thought category. In terms of state or condition of things, globality always manifests itself typically in reference to space. It can only be defined with reference to a geographic space, constituting its defining and distinguishing characteristic. As such, it refers to the geographical “reach” of an ideational, material, or institutional element of worldly human existence or co-existence across the globe. This understanding allows us to address the Glob- ality of “Things” meaning everything has a certain degree of globality, low or high, depending on its spatial reach on earth. Accordingly, a large spectrum and diversity of terms can be applied depending on the object of analytical inquiry: for example, globality of democracy, globality of beer, globality of 5G technologies, globality of computers, globality of the German language, globality of Chinese cuisine, glob- ality of fresco painting, or globality of Bauhaus architecture. Because any expansion process can be accelerated or throttled by human activities, the degree of globality can be shaped and managed by human action. In terms of thought, globality presents itself as an interpreting concept, a narra- tive, and an analytical approach to address issues with a global-epochal range. As 5 Dussel: Europe, Modernity, and Eurocentrism, p. 469. 6 Posen, Adam S.: The End of Globalization? What Russia’s War in Ukraine Means for the World Economy, in: Foreign Affairs, March 17, 2022, accessed on March 20, 2022, at: https://www.for eignaffairs.com/articles/world/2022-03-17/end-globalization. Preface:Modernity,Globality,andStructuralPower vii Tilman Mayer pointed out, globality “means a reflective process that conveys how we can see the world in a new way.”7 What makes it distinct from modernity is its global-horizontal perspective and spatial-extraverted mentality. These characteristics contrast strikingly with modernity with its nation-orientated mentality, its attachment for the past to justify efforts for Fortschritt, and its habitus to gauge non-European issues by European standards. It is, therefore, hard to envisage that the concept of modernity could bring with it the power necessary for taming the intellectual chal- lenges of “The Global Age.” The logic that a new age necessitates a new concept of thought promises, indeed, the end of modernity both as a narrative and an analytical approach to address issues with global-epochal range. Globality, however, does not “happen” out of thin air. In fact, globality is itself the result of the global implementation of an originally local element. It may constitute a product, an idea, an institution, or an organization. It is rare that these sorts of things expand independently or automatically. On the contrary, an idea, product, or institution, by and large, can only expand and be implemented when it is driven by a certain force or power. This book is challenging the academic and societal tendency to view international power-related phenomena dichotomously between hard and soft power. I assume that a power source, independent from hard and soft power, does exist. It is invisible, structure-manipulating, and effectively leveraging. It is this very “third power” that drives and shapes power phenomena in the “Global Age” more energetically than hard and soft power, particularly when it comes to the final outcomes of power competition and the prevailing of political preferences among competing actors. The presumption waged here adopts the “structural power” term originally conceptualized by Susan Strange.8 It is, however, derived most fundamentally from the observation of a particular political phenomenon that appears to eschew explana- tion by the dichotomy between hard and soft power: the phenomenon of decoupling between power resources at the disposal of states on the one hand, and their power to assert themselves at international level on the other. Increasingly states which have impressive hard power, as well as those with ostensibly sufficient soft power, prove incapable of asserting their state preferences at international level. Conversely, there are increasing instances of states with weaker positions in terms of both classic power forms that manage to either assert their will against seemingly more powerful actors or undermine the latter’s objectives. The fact that the much weaker Ukraine has been in the position to pit itself against the superpower Russia provides proof for this kind of phenomenon. This book is an attempt to verify the posited hypotheses regarding globality and structural power by applying them to a set of selected global phenomena particularly from the domains of geopolitics (Belt & Road Initiative, Afghanistan, Iran conflict, 7 Mayer, Tilman: Humanity, Globality, and Politics, in: Ludger Kühnhardt and Tilman Mayer (eds.): The Bonn Handbook of Globality, Heidelberg 2019, p. 1409. 8 Strange, Susan: States and Markets, London 1988; Strange, Susan: The Retreat of the State. The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy, Cambridge 1996; Strange, Susan: Political Economy and International Relations, in: Ken Booth and Steve Smith (eds.): International Relations Theory Today, Oxford 1997, pp. 154–174. viii Preface:Modernity,Globality,andStructuralPower Afghanistan War, competition for a new world order) and technology (Global Navi- gation Satellite Systems, 5G infrastructure, race for international standards, and ICT rivalry). Instead of systematically examining each of these subjects as such, it focuses on extracting theoretical meanings from these cases to demonstrate the logic of glob- ality and structural power, partly from global-horizontal perspectives, partly through a structural-vertical lens. Especially in this last regard, a verification of the hypotheses regarding the exis- tence of structural power in the Global Age and how it emerges and takes effect bears far-reaching potential for developing a new theory of power that expands its conven- tional understanding with a new dimension, underpinned by empirical research. Consequently, this endeavor could lead to replacing the established dichotomy between hard and soft power with a trichotomy of hard, soft, and structural power, which fosters a more differentiated perspective on the phenomenon of power and facilitates its respective conceptualization in the Global Age. The resultant epistemic gain may provide for a new ontology of power that not only expands common explanatory approaches but also could raise societal aware- ness of the co-constitutive role of relevant structures within a given context for the actual development of power. Both with regard to political science research and to the societal applicability, research on structural power dedicated to testing the under- lying hypothesis for verification or falsification promises a manifold and fruitful perspective. The ongoing supplanting of the Modern Age by the Global Age doesn’t mean that the features characterizing the conditions of modernity would vanish from our lives. On the contrary, many physical, ideational, and institutional elements constituting the conditions of modernity will not only remain alive but also continue to thrive. Running water, electricity, developed road systems, modern schools, universities, rationality, secularity, sovereignty, social insurance systems, and health care systems have been the mainstay of the conditions of modernity and will still play a decisive role in human life in the Global Age. But modernity as a concept of thought is losing its power to reflect and interpret the globalized world precisely and meaningfully. In a world where global supply chains, global migration, global financial flows, global warming dynamics, global satellite navigation, global technological transfer, and global cyber connectivity dominate human activities, ethnocentric and nation- concentrated figures like the concept of modernity have no room left. The days for modernity as an intellectual narrative or postulate are numbered. In this context, the increasing efforts of forces, especially populist politicians and cramped security officials in different countries, to de-globalize the world and to decouple nations, often in the name of national security, are to be seen as the last attack of the mentality of modernity on globality. Globalization and the spirit of globality are suffering from reversals not because the logic of capitalism has changed, but because the forces that have captured the ruling power in national capitals are those that are not ready to say adieu to the Modern Age and to embrace the Global Age candidly. We are witnesses to the war between Russia and the West. In a certain manner, it is a war between the Modern Age and the Global Age, at least relating to the weapons Preface:Modernity,Globality,andStructuralPower ix used by both sides, even the Western countries are not theoretically aware of this fact. The power of the sanctions exposed by the West on Russia is mostly derived from globalized structures especially globalized financial structures and globalized supply chains, while Putin mostly relies on hard power. Indeed, Putin declared the war on Ukraine with tanks, missiles, and bombers. In contrast to him, the West declared the war on Russia with structural power in terms of financial and technological leverages. To put it another way, the war is fought by Russia with weapons of the Modern Age and by the West with weapons of the Global Age. Alone due to this factor, the West is on the “right side” of history. In fact, this strategy works. The fight against the militarily powerful Russia without utilizing NATO troops at the front is becoming a full-scale victory for the West. If Napoleon Bonaparte, who recognized the effect of soft power much earlier than most by saying “the pen is mightier than the sword,” was still alive, he would have tried to advise Russia’s president to be careful with using his missiles as a sword against the West. But now, it could be too late for Vladimir Putin to realize “the banks are more powerful than tanks” in the Global Age. This should serve as a lesson for all those who fail to understand the tide changes. Modernity is giving way to globality even though the way is, as Mao Zedong once mused on the “Long March,” “winding, but promising.” This book grew out of my teaching and research with my team at the Center for Global Studies at the University of Bonn over the last ten years. A lot of ideas and suggestions from my assistants and students are integrated into this book. From the initial conception of this book to its final manuscript, I have tremendously benefited from many brainstorming discussions and exchanges with them. Particularly Clara Dinkelbach, Christiane Heidbrink, Ying Huang, Philip Nock, Hendrik Ohnesorge, and Andrej Pustovitovskij deserve my special acknowledgment. I can only express my deepest thanks to them. It is their help that made this book possible. Thanks also to student assistant Emilia Dette who assisted me in the formatting of the manuscript. Certainly, I am solely responsible for the text with all its possible deficiencies and flaws. Bonn, Germany Xuewu Gu

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