Structural Interdependence and Economic Development: Proceedings of an International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Geneva, September 1961

372 Pages·1963·31.918 MB·English

by  Tibor Barna (eds.)

STRUCTURAL INTERDEPENDENCE AND
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Structural Interdependence
and
Economic Development
PROCEEDINGS OF
AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
ON INPUT-OUTPUT TECHNIQ.UES,
GENEVA, SEPTEMBER 196 I
EDITED BY
TIBOR BARNA
IN COLLABORATION WITH
WILLIAM I. ABRAHAM and
ZOLTAN KENESSEY
Palgrave Macmillan
1963
Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com
ISBN 978-1-349-81636-1 ISBN 978-1-349-81634-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-81634-7
Copyright © Macmillan & Co Ltd 1963
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1963978-0-333-08986-6
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Preface
by WASSILY LEONTIEF
The papers brought together in this book were presented at the Third
International Input-Output Conference held in September 1961 in
Geneva. The·meetings were sponsored jointly by the Secretariat of the
United Nations and the Harvard Economic Research Project. Over two
hundred economists and statisticians, coming from forty-one different
countries, took part in them.
The first international conference on interindustrial relations met in
1951 in Driebergen, Holland; its programme centered on the construction
and empirical implementation of the basic theoretical systems [1]. Con
tinued work on analytical, statistical and computational procedures is
reflected in the proceedings [2] of the second conference which took place
in 1954- in Varenna, Italy. The application of the input-output tech
niques to economic projection and developmental planning appeared on
its programme among other 'special applications.' The tide of the present
volume indicates that the proceedings in Geneva were dominated by
these two subjects.
For the first time experts from the Soviet Union and other socialist
countries and planners from underdeveloped areas shared their ideas
and practical experiences in the study of interindustrial relationships
with economists working on the same problems in countries of private
enterprise.
Direct and indirect interdependence between the input and the output
flows of all goods and services governs the intersectoral balance of every
economic system. In one way or another such a balance is maintained in
industrialized countries as weIl as in countries still in the early stages of
economic growth. The same is true of the necessary intertemporal con
nection between capital accumulation, i.e., investment in productive
capacities of specific kind and the expansion rates of various outputs.
Depending on the nature of the social and economic institutions of the
particular country, such a balance is established and such an intertem
poral dependence maintained either through a more or less effective
operation of the impersonal forces of the market mechanism, through a
more or less efficient planning action or through so me combination of
both. In either case the input-output method is used as an effective
projection or a planning too1.
In the development of this analytical technique and of its variou
applications, economists and statisticians from private enterprise econos
mies and from socialist states, from highly industrialized areas as weIl as
v
vi Preface
from areas that are just entering the steep path of economic growth, can
profitably work together since the scientific problems they are facing are,
in this particular instance, essentially the same.
The present exchange of methodological ideas should naturally lead to
international cooperation of a more substantive kind.
A national input-output table permits us to analyse the interindustrial
relationships between the sectors of the economy of a given country in
great detail, but when it comes to the description of the ftow of goods and
services connecting that economy with the economies of other countries,
it traces them up to the geographie border - but not beyond. Thus, the
analytical schemes based on such data must of necessity be kept 'open'
in respect to external trade: the foreign demand for any good or service
exported from a given country is treated not as an integral element of the
picture, but rather as apart of its external frame, and so is the supply of
imports obtained from abroad. This procedure restricts severely the
analytical power and consequently also the practieal usefulness of
national input-output computations, particularly for the small and the
developing economies in whose internal balance exports and imports
play an important and frequently even a dominant role.
Establishment of effective statistieal and analytical links between the
national input-output tables of countries trading with each other would
obviously increase the usefulness of the factual information contained in
each one of these tables. The lively discussion of the international
standardization of input-output statistics summarized in the last chapter
of this volume deserves, because of that, particular attention. A proper
conceptual and numerical alignment of the import and export figures
entered in the tables of interindustrial ftows prepared for individual
countries would represent a most significant advance in the development
of input-output techniques.
In the name of the Sponsoring Committee of the Geneva Conference I
want to thank Professor Tibor Barna for the effective discharge of his
responsibilities as Chairman of the Editorial Committee; Dr. Zoltan
Kenessey and Professor William Abraham cooperated with him in the
performance of that demanding task.
REFERENCES
[1] The Netherlands Economic Institute, ed., Input-Output Relations, Pro
ceedings of a Conference on Inter-industrial Relations held at Driebergen,
Holland. (Leiden, 1953.)
[2] Barna, Tibor, ed., The Structural Interdependence 0/ the Economy, Proceed
ings of an International Conference on Input-Output Analysis, Varenna,
27 June-lO July 1954. (New York and Milano, 1956.)
Contents
CHAPTER PAGE
Preface, by W ASSILY LEONTIEF V
Introduction, by TIBOR BARNA 1
PART I. MODELS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
1 The Use of Interindustry Analysis in Development
Programming, by HOLLIS B. CHENERY I I
2 Decomposition and Optimization of Short-run Planning
in a Planned Economy, by JERZY MYCIELSKI, KRZYSZTOF
REy and WITOLD TRZECIAKOWSKI 28
3 An Efficient Path for the Technological Transformation
of an Economy, by PURUSHOITAM NARAYAN MATHUR 39
4 The Food and Agricultural Sectors in Advanced
Economies, by KAHL A. Fox 57
5 Models of Agriculture and Industry in Less Developed
Economies, by J. K. SENGUPTA 76
Comments on papers by Professor Fox and Mr. Sengupta,
by RICHARD H. DAY 93
Reply by KARL A. Fox and J. K. SENGUPTA 99
PART 11. REGIONAL MODELS
6 Application of Input-Output Techniques to Regional
Science, by W ALTER ISARD and EUGENE SMOLENSKY 105
Comments on paper by Professors Isard and Smolensky,
by H. I. LIEBLING 115
7 Multiregional Input-Output Analysis, by WASSILY
LEONTIEF in collaboration with ALAN STROUT 119
8 Application of Input-Output Techniques to Urban Areas,
byWERNERZ. HIRSCH 151
PART 111. INPUT-OUTPUT TECHNIQUES AND
NATIONAL PLANNING
9 The Use of Statistical and Mathematical Methods in
Soviet Planning, by V. S. NEMCHINOV 171
vü
viii Contents
CHAPTER PAGE
10 Collection and Organization of Data for Interindustry
Study in France, by GEORGES DELANGE 189
11 The Input-Output Model in a Developing Economy:
Egypt, by GAMAL E. ELEISH 199
Addendum to paper by Mr Eleish, by A. R. ABDEL MEGUID 220
12 Some Applications of Input-Output Techniques to the
Analysis of the Structure and Development of Israel's
Economy, by MICHAEL BRUNO 224
13 Construction and Use of Input-Output Tables in Latin
American Countries, by MANUEL BALBOA 245
PART IV. PROBLEMS OF ESTIMATION AND STATISTICS
14 The Labour Coefficient and the Size of Establishment
in Two Japanese Industries, by RYUTARO KOMIYA and
TADAO UCHIDA 265
15 Incremental Flow Coefficients for aDynamie Input
Output Model with Changing Technology, by ANNE P.
CARTER 277
16 Changes in Input-Output Coefficients, by PER SEVALDSON 303
Comments on paper by Mr Sevaldson, by TSUNEHIKO
WATANABE 328
17 Problems of Standardization of Input-Output Statistics:
a Debate, by V. CAO-PINNA and B. ROELANTS DU
VIVIER, W. I. ABRAHAM and M. HOFFENBERG, M. R.
GOLDMAN, O. AUKRUST, Z. KENESSEY and A. NOVAK 333
List of Contributors
The position 0/ contributors given is that at the
time 0/ the con/erence
ABDEL MEGUID, A. R., Director of Research, Bank of Alexandria, Cairo.
ABRAHAM, WILLIAM 1., Statistical Office, United Nations.
AUKRUST, ODD, Director of Research, Central Bureau of Statistics of N orway.
BALBOA, MANUEL, Director, Economic Development and Research Division,
Economic Commission for Latin America.
BARNA, TIBOR, Assistant Director, National Institute of Economic and Social
Research, London.
BRUNo, MICHAEL, Research Department, Bank of Israel.
CAO-PINNA, VERA, Lecturer, University of Rome.
CARTER, ANNE P., Senior Research Associate, Harvard Economic Research
Project, Harvard University, U.S.A.
CHENERY, HOLLIS B., Professor ofEconomics, Stanford University, U.S.A.
DAY, RICHARD H., Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture.
DELANGE, GEORGES, Department of Economic and Financial Research,
Ministry of Finance, Paris.
ELEISH, GAMAL, Head of Input-Output Unit, National Planning Commission,
Cairo.
Fox, KARL A., Head, Department of Economics and Sociology, Iowa State
University, U.S.A.
GHOSH, AMBICA, Reader in Economics, Jadavpur University, Calcutta, India.
GOLDMAN, MORRIS, Office of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Com
merce,
HIRSCH, WERNER Z., Professor of Economics and Director of the Institute
for Urban and Regional Studies, Washington University, St. Louis,
U.S.A.
HOFFENBERG, MARVIN, Operations Research Office, Johns Hopkins University,
U.S.A.
ISARD, WALTER, Professor of Regional Science, Wharton School of Finance
and Commerce, U niversity of Pennsylvania, U. S.A.
KENESSEY, ZOLTA.N, Chief of Section, Hungarian Central Statistical Office
KOMIYA, RYUTARo, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of
Tokyo.
LEONTIEF, WASSILY, Professor of Economics and Director of Harvard
Economic Research Project, Harvard University, U.S.A.
LIEBLING, HERMAN, Director of Economic Studies, National Science Founda
tion, Washington.
MATHUR, PURUSHOTTAM N., Professor, Gokhale Institute of Politics and
Economics, Poona, India.
IX
x List 0/ Contributors
M YCIELSKI, JERZY, Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences.
NEMCHINOV, V. S., Director of the Laboratory of Economic-Mathematical
Sciences, Academy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R.
NOVAK, ANTE, Director, Federal Statistical Office, Belgrade.
REY, KRZYSZTOF, Economic Adviser, Computing Centre, Polish Academy of
Sciences.
ROELANTS DU VIVIER, B., O.E.E.C., Paris.
SENGUPTA, J. K., Fulbright Fellow at Iowa State University (U.S. Educational
Foundation in India).
SEVALDSON, PER, Central Bureau of Statistics ofNorway
SMOLENSKY, EUGENE, Assistant Professor of Economics, Haverford College,
U.S.A.
STROUT, ALAN, Technical Associate, Harvard Economic Research Project,
Harvard University, U.S.A.
TRZECIAKOWSKI, WITOLD, Head of Research Project, Polish Ministry of
Foreign Trade.
UCHIDA, TADAO, Assistant Professor, FacuIty of General Education,
U niversity of Tokyo.
WATANABE, TSUNEHIKO, Research Center in Economic Growth, Stanford
University, U.S.A.