South Asia Economic and Policy Studies Editor Selim Raihan Structural Change and Dynamics of Labor Markets in Bangladesh South Asia Economic and Policy Studies Series editors Sachin Chaturvedi, RIS for Developing Countries, New Delhi, India Mustafizur Rahman, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dhaka, Bangladesh Abid Suleri, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad, Pakistan Dushni Weerakoon, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka The Series aims to address evolving and new challenges and policy actions that maybeneededintheSouthAsianRegioninthe21stcentury.Itventuresnicheand makes critical assessment to evolve a coherent understanding of the nature of challengesandallow/facilitatedialogueamongscholarsandpolicymakersfromthe regionworkingwiththecommonpurposeofexploringandstrengtheningnewways toimplementregionalcooperation.Theseriesismultidisciplinaryinitsorientation and invites contributions from academicians, policy makers, practitioners, consul- tants working in the broad fields of regional cooperation; trade and investment; finance; economic growth and development; industry and technology; agriculture; services; environment, resources and climate change; demography and migration; disaster management, globalization and institutions among others. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15400 Selim Raihan Editor Structural Change and Dynamics of Labor Markets in Bangladesh 123 Editor Selim Raihan University of Dhaka Dhaka,Bangladesh and SANEM Bangladesh ISSN 2522-5502 ISSN 2522-5510 (electronic) SouthAsiaEconomic andPolicy Studies ISBN978-981-13-2070-5 ISBN978-981-13-2071-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2071-2 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018950950 ©SpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd.2018 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd. Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:152BeachRoad,#21-01/04GatewayEast,Singapore189721, Singapore Preface Bangladesh’sachievementineconomicgrowthoverthelastdecadehasbeenquite robust. The country has recently been upgraded from a low-income country (LIC) to a lower-middle-income country (LMIC) as per the World Bank’s classi- fication.ThereisanaspirationtograduatefromtheLDCstatus by2024asperthe UnitedNations’classification.TheSeventhFive-YearPlansetsanambitioustarget of8percentgrowthinGDPby2020.Therearealsosteepdevelopmenttargetstobe achievedundertheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)by2030.Allthesewill require an enormous leap forward from the current level of economic growth rate andsustainingitinthefuture.Thesituationalsodemandsaconsiderablestructural change inthe economy,leading tolarge-scale economicdiversification, promotion oflabor-intensiveandhigh-productivity sectors, inboth farmandnonfarmsectors, and interventions to enhance productivity, job, and income in traditional and informal activities where there are large pools of surplus labor. Against this backdrop, this volume titled Structural Change and Dynamics of LaborMarketsinBangladeshcoversawiderangeofissuesrelatedtolabormarkets in Bangladesh. These include structural change and employment creation, factors affectingthechoicebetweenfarmandnonfarmemployment,employmentstatusand well-beingofruralhouseholds,factorsinfluencingfemalelaborforceparticipation, unpacking unpaid family labor, dynamics of employment in the urban informal sector, social protection programs impacting on labor force participation behavior, impactofbothinternationalandinternalremittancesonthedomesticlabormarket, some estimates of the first demographic dividend in Bangladesh, role of education andskilldevelopmentinthetransitionfrom‘good-enough’jobto‘decent’job,issue of agricultural seasonality in skill training, and policy simulations using social accountingmatrix and computable general equilibrium frameworks. We wish to extend our sincere gratitude to IDRC, Canada, for their financial support to successfully publish this volume. It is our pleasure to thank Edgard Rodriguez,IDRC,Canada,forhissupportandadvice.Wearepleasedtorecognize the contributions from authors and co-authors of the chapters in this volume. The list includes Selim Raihan, Bazlul Haque Khondker, Simeen Mahmud, Sayema Haque Bidisha, Abu Parves Shonchoy, Nafiz Ifteakhar, Mir Tanzim Nur Angkur, v vi Preface MuhammadMoshiurRahman,FatimaTuzZohora,SyerTazimHaque,IsratJahan, Mahtab Uddin, and Andilip Afroze. Finally, we would like to thank Sk. Ashibur Rahman Anjon, Raisa Tamanna Khan, Sunera Saba Khan, Nabila Hasan, Wahid Ferdous Ibon, and Md. Jillur Rahman for their excellent support services. Dhaka, Bangladesh Selim Raihan Contents Structural Change in Bangladesh: Challenges for Growth and Employment Creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Selim Raihan What Determines the Choice Between Farm and Nonfarm Employments in the Rural Bangladesh?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Selim Raihan and Syer Tazim Haque How Does Employment Status Matter for the Well-Being of Rural Households in Bangladesh? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Selim Raihan and Fatima Tuz Zohora Female Labor Market Participation in Bangladesh: Structural Changes and Determinants of Labor Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Simeen Mahmud and Sayema Haque Bidisha Unpaid Family Labor: A Hidden Form of Labor Market Discrimination of Women in Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Sayema Haque Bidisha and Selim Raihan Dynamics of Employment in the Urban Informal Sector in Bangladesh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Selim Raihan, K. M. Nafiz Ifteakhar and Mir Tanzim Nur Angkur Some Estimates of First Demographic Dividend in Bangladesh: An Application of the Bangladesh National Transfer Account. . . . . . . . 93 Bazlul H. Khondker and Muhammad Moshiur Rahman How Does Social Protection Affect Labor Force Participation in Bangladesh?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Selim Raihan and Israt Jahan vii viii Contents How Do Education and Skill Development Affect the Transition from “Good-Enough” Job to “Decent” Job? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Selim Raihan and Mahtab Uddin Does Participation in Vocational Training Differ on Agricultural Seasonality? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Israt Jahan and Abu S. Shonchoy How Does Remittance Affect Labor Force Participation Behavior and Employment Choice in Bangladesh? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Selim Raihan, Muhammad Moshiur Rahman, Andilip Afroze and Mahtab Uddin Backward and Forward Linkages in the Bangladesh Economy: Application of the Social Accounting Matrix Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Bazlul H. Khondker Economy-Wide and Employment Effects of Different Scenarios in Bangladesh: Application of a CGE Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Selim Raihan Editor and Contributors About the Editor Dr. Selim Raihan is Professor in the Department of Economics, University of Dhaka,andExecutiveDirectoroftheSouthAsianNetworkonEconomicModeling (SANEM).HeholdsaPh.D.fromtheUniversityofManchester,UK.Hepossesses vast expertise in research on international trade, labor market dynamics, poverty, economic growth, and political economy analysis of growth and development. He has a long experience in teaching international trade, economic modeling, quanti- tative economics, econometrics, development economics, and poverty dynamics at the University of Dhaka. He is Editor of a monthly digest Thinking Aloud, pub- lished from SANEM. He has a number of publicationsin reputed journals and has alsowrittenseveralbooksandchapterspublishedbyreputedpublishersinLondon, New York, New Delhi, and Dhaka. He has worked for several national and international organizations including the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, UNDP, UNESCAP, UNCTAD, IFPRI, the Commonwealth Secretariat, FAO, the European Commission, ILO, IDRC, DFID. Contributors Ms. Andilip Afroze is Research Associate at the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM). She obtained her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the Department of Economics, University of Dhaka. Her major areas of interest include labor economics, international trade, and development economics. MirTanzimNurAngkur isLecturerintheDepartmentofEconomics,EastWest University, and Research Associate at the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM). He obtained his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the Department of Economics, University of Dhaka. His research interests lie in the areas of international trade, global value chain, and informal sector. ix