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Stress Testing: Approaches, Methods and Applications PDF

265 Pages·2013·3.429 MB·English
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The years since the fi nancial crisis have seen The book includes several of the high profi le S stress testing emerge as a cornerstone of both system-wide stress-testing exercises that were tre Stress s modern risk management and regulatory good essential elements of the public sector response s practice. to the fi nancial crisis. Te s tin Acknowledged as an essential part of the risk Key chapters focus on: g Testing manager’s armoury, increasingly regulators • Counterparty exposures and supervisors see stress tests as key to • Validation and independent review understanding the risks an institution faces and • Scenario design and model estimation also, critically, those macroprudential risks with • Capital ratios systemic impact. • CCAR stress testing Stress testing is the common currency of the Contributors include Paolo Bisio, Approaches, Methods regulation shaping the future of the fi nancial Demelze Jurcevic and Mario Quagliariello E stoys Itnetmer fargoemnc By aSsterle IsIsI Taensdt itnhge g Duioddadn–ceF riann tkh Ae cUt,S ((EFeudreorpaela Rn eBseanrvkein Bgo Aaurdth),o rOitlyiv),ie Dr advei dB Lanydntc,h dite and Applications d and CRD-IV in Europe. Nicolas Dumontaux, Vincent Martin and b Denys Médée (Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel), y In Stress Testing: Approaches, Methods and Benjamin M. Tabak, Solange M. Guerra, A Applications, editors Akhtar Siddique (Offi ce Sergio R. S. Souza and Rodrigo C. C. Miranda k h of the Comptroller of Currency) and Iftekhar (Central Bank of Brazil) and David E. Palmer ta Hasan (Fordham University) have assembled (Federal Reserve Board). r S contributions from key fi gures directly involved id EDITED BY AKHTAR SIDDIQUE in the measurement and application of these new “With this book as a guide, both fi nancial d stress-testing practices. regulators and fi nancial practitioners can gain iq AND IFTEKHAR HASAN u insights that will help them do their jobs more e a This new book sets out and analyses the eff ectively.” n techniques used, providing key insight into MARK LEVONIAN, Senior Deputy Comptroller, d supervisory perspectives and expectations. Offi ce of the Comptroller of the Currency Ifte k h a r H a s a n PEFC Certified This book has been produced entirely from sustainable papers that are accredited as PEFC compliant. www.pefc.org Stress Testing v4_2.indd 1 21/05/2013 10:08 Stress Testing: Approaches, Methods and Applications stress_testing.indd 1 20/05/2013 18:45 stress_testing.indd 2 20/05/2013 18:45 Stress Testing: Approaches, Methods and Applications Edited by Akhtar Siddique and Iftekhar Hasan stress_testing.indd 3 20/05/2013 18:45 Published by Risk Books, a Division of Incisive Media Investments Ltd Incisive Media 32–34 Broadwick Street London W1A 2HG Tel: +44(0) 20 7316 9000 E-mail: [email protected] Sites: www.riskbooks.com www.incisivemedia.com © 2013 Incisive Media ISBN 978-1-78272-008-9 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Publisher: Nick Carver Editorial Development: Amy Jordan Commissioning Editor: Sarah Hastings Managing Editor: Lewis O’Sullivan Designer: Lisa Ling Copy-edited by Laurie Donaldson Typeset by Tricolour Design Printed and bound in the UK by Berforts Group Conditions of sale All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form whether by photocopying or storing in any medium by electronic means whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use for this publication without the prior written consent of the copy- right owner except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Limited of Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS, UK. Warning: the doing of any unauthorised act in relation to this work may result in both civil and criminal liability. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the text at the time of publication, this includes efforts to contact each author to ensure the accuracy of their details at publication is correct. However, no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of the material contained in this publication will be accepted by the copyright owner, the editor, the authors or Incisive Media. Many of the product names contained in this publication are registered trade marks, and Risk Books has made every effort to print them with the capitalisation and punctuation used by the trademark owner. For reasons of textual clarity, it is not our house style to use symbols such as TM, ®, etc. However, the absence of such symbols should not be taken to indicate absence of trademark protection; anyone wishing to use product names in the public domain should first clear such use with the product owner. While best efforts have been intended for the preparation of this book, neither the publisher, the editor nor any of the potentially implicitly affiliated organisations accept responsibility for any errors, mistakes and or omissions it may provide or for any losses howsoever arising from or in reliance upon its information, meanings and interpretations by any parties. stress_testing.indd 4 20/05/2013 18:45 Contents Acknowledgements from the Editors vii Foreword xi About the Editors xv About the Authors xvii Introduction xxv Akhtar Siddique; Iftekhar Hasan Office of the Comptroller of Currency; Fordham University 1 Governance over Stress Testing 1 David E. Palmer Federal Reserve Board 2 Stress Testing and Other Risk-Management Tools 15 Akhtar Siddique; Iftekhar Hasan Office of the Comptroller of Currency; Fordham University 3 Stress Testing for Market Risk 25 Dilip K. Patro, Akhtar Siddique; Xian Sun Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; Johns Hopkins University 4 The Evolution of Stress Testing Counterparty Exposures 37 David Lynch Federal Reserve Board 5 Operational Risk: An Overview of Stress-Testing Methodologies 57 Brian Clark; Bakhodir Ergashev Office of the Comptroller of Currency; Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 6 Stress Testing of Bank Loan Portfolios as a Diagnostic Tool 71 Paul Calem, Arden Hall Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia v stress_testing.indd 5 20/05/2013 18:45 StreSS teSting: ApproAcheS, MethodS And ApplicAtionS 7 Stress-Test Modelling for Loan Losses and Reserves 89 Michael Carhill, Jonathan Jones Office of the Comptroller of the Currency 8 A Framework for Stress Testing Banks’ Corporate Credit Portfolio 109 Olivier de Bandt, Nicolas Dumontaux, Vincent Martin, Denys Médée Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (French Prudential Supervision Authority) 9 EU-Wide Stress Test: The Experience of the EBA 127 Paolo Bisio, Demelza Jurcevic and Mario Quagliariello European Banking Authority 10 Stress Testing Across International Exposures and Activities 143 Robert Scavotto, Robert H. Skinkle Office of the Comptroller of the Currency 11 Liquidity Risk: The Case of the Brazilian Banking System 161 Benjamin M. Tabak, Solange M. Guerra, Sergio R. S. Souza, Rodrigo C. C. Miranda Banco Central do Brasil 12 Determining the Severity of Macroeconomic Stress Scenarios 193 Kapo Yuen Federal Reserve Bank of New York Index 225 vi stress_testing.indd 6 20/05/2013 18:45 Acknowledgements from the Editors We would like to acknowledge advice from and discussions with colleagues in various settings. Akhtar would like to acknowledge discussions with colleagues from the OCC, Federal Reserve Banks and the FDIC during examinations as well as in policy settings. En- couragement from Mark Levonian and Mike Carhill are particu- larly acknowledged. We would also like to thank Clayton Lamar for research assistance and help. vii stress_testing.indd 7 20/05/2013 18:45 stress_testing.indd 8 20/05/2013 18:45 To the people in our lives. For Akhtar, the children in his life, Ayaan, Aahil and his nieces Babu and Putul but above all, his parents, wife: Deepa, sister: Moon, and his in-laws. For Iftekhar, his parents, parents in-law, siblings, nephews, nieces, and his spouse. stress_testing.indd 9 20/05/2013 18:45

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