Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making (Bradford Books)

355 Pages·2009·1.56 MB·English

by  Gary Klein

“I know of no one who combines theory and
observation—intellectual rigor and
painstaking observation of the real world—
so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.”
Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink
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Streetlights and Shadows

Streetlights and Shadows
SearchingfortheKeystoAdaptiveDecisionMaking
GaryKlein
ABradfordBook
TheMITPress
Cambridge,Massachusetts
London,England
(2009MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
Allrightsreserved.Nopart of thisbookmay bereproducedin anyformbyanyelec-
tronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorage
andretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.
MIT Press books may be purchased at special quantity discounts for business or sales
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SpecialSalesDepartment,MITPress,55HaywardStreet,Cambridge,MA02142.
SetinPalatinoon3B2byAscoTypesetters,HongKong.PrintedandboundintheUnited
StatesofAmerica.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Klein,Gary
Streetlightsandshadows:searchingforthekeystoadaptivedecisionmaking/Gary
Klein.
p. cm.
‘‘ABradfordBook.’’
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-262-01339-0(hardcover:alk.paper)
1.Decisionmaking. 2.Problemsolving. I.Title.
BF448.K54 2009
153.8'3—dc22 2009007501
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
toHelen,Devorah,andRebecca

Contents
ListofExamples ix
1 TenSurprisesaboutHowWeHandleAmbiguous
Situations 1
PartI MakingDecisions 13
2 APassionforProcedures 15
3 SeeingtheInvisible 33
4 HowBiasedIsOurThinking? 49
5 IntuitionversusAnalysis 67
6 BlendingIntuitionandAnalysistoMakeRapid
Decisions 83
7 ExpertsandErrors 101
8 AutomatingDecisions 115
PartII MakingSenseofSituations 127
9 MoreIsLess 129
10 WhenPatienceIsaVice 147
11 TheLimitsofFeedback 165
12 CorrectingtheDots 177
13 DoWeThinkLikeComputers? 199
viii Contents
PartIII Adapting 205
14 MovingTargets 207
15 TheRisksofRiskManagement 229
16 TheCognitiveWavelength 251
17 Unlearning 269
PartIV Finishing 283
18 ReclaimingOurMinds 285
19 GettingFound 295
Acknowledgments 303
Notes 305
Bibliography 319
Index 335
List of Examples
2.1: Aflyingbrick 19
2.2: Thehijackprocedures 20
2.3: Thehighroadandthelowroad 22
2.4: Thebubble 26
3.1: Sailsmanship 37
3.2: Thefallguy 38
3.3: Catchingcriminalswhiletheyaresleeping 40
3.4: Trackingthecustomers 41
3.5: Detectionwork 42
3.6: Thehiddenhotel 45
4.1: Howtolietoyourtoaster 57
4.2: Thegazeheuristic 59
5.1: Panningthepundits 68
5.2: Location,location,and...dislocation 74
5.3: Theunsinkablehedgefund 75
5.4: Deliberationwithoutattention 76
5.5: Whoisleadingtherace? 77
6.1: Pushingthefireout 88
6.2: Goodtothelastdrop 89
6.3: MiracleontheHudson 91