Strategy, Evolution, and War: From Apes to Artificial Intelligence

270 Pages·2018·1.428 MB·English

by  Kenneth Payne

Strategy, evolution, and War
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Strategy
From apeS to
evolution
artiFicial intelligence
and War
Kenneth Payne
Georgetown University Press / Washington, DC
© 2018 Georgetown University Press. All rights reserved. No part
of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording,
or by any information storage and retrieval system,
without permission in writing from the publisher.
The publisher is not responsible for third-party websites or their content.
URL links were active at time of publication.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Payne, Kenneth, 1974– author.
Title: Strategy, evolution, and war : from apes to artificial intelligence / Kenneth Payne.
Description: Washington, DC : Georgetown University Press, 2018. |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017057435 (print) | LCCN 2018012277 (ebook) |
ISBN 9781626165816 (ebook) | ISBN 9781626165793 (hardcover : alk. paper) |
ISBN 9781626165809 (pbk. : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Strategy. | Strategy—Psychological aspects. |
Artificial intelligence—Military applications.
Classification: LCC U162 (ebook) | LCC U162 .P39 2018 (print) | DDC 355.02—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017057435
Ó This book is printed on acid-free paper meeting the requirements
of the American National Standard for Permanence in Paper
for Printed Library Materials.
19 18 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 First printing
Printed in the United States of America
Cover design by John Barnett/4eyesdesign.com.
For Valerie Payne-Morris
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contentS
Introduction 1
part i the evolution of Strategists
1 Defining Strategy as Psychology 27
2 Evolutionary Strategy 42
3 Strategic Heuristics and Biases 73
part ii culture meets evolved Strategy
4 The Pen and the Sword in Ancient Greece 89
5 Clausewitz Explores the Psychology
of Strategy 116
6 Nuclear Weapons Are Not Psychologically
Revolutionary 135
part iii artificial intelligence and Strategy
7 Tactical Artificial Intelligence Arrives 163
8 Artificial General Intelligence Does
Strategy 193
Conclusion: Strategy Evolves beyond AI 216
Acknowledgments 223
References 225
Index 247
About the Author 261
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introduction
This book explores the evolutionary basis of human strategy in
war and considers the prospects of a radically distinct approach to strategy using
artificial intelligence (AI). Strategy is defined here as the purposeful use of violence
for political ends. This definition sharpens the focus onto war and away from other
human endeavors that may require a similar aptitude for planning imaginatively
to realize goals.
My conclusion is that strategy is soon to undergo something of a dramatic
transformation because machines will make important decisions about war and
will do so without input from human minds. The results may be dramatic—in-
cluding a shift in the utility of deterrence, a profound reordering of existing power
balances, and challenges to the notion of the “warrior.” AI will likely enhance the
power of the offensive side in conflict and will make decisions about escalation in
nonhuman ways at a pace that is inhumanly fast.
I take an evolutionary approach to understanding s trategy—seeing it largely as a
product of our intense and complex social relationships. Living in a group entails co-
operation and shared planning about future goals—especially when it comes to con-
flict with other groups. This process of negotiating goals within a group and working
together to achieve them is what we call strategy, particularly when it involves goals
that conflict with those of rival groups. Until now, all strategy has been inherently
biological—connected intimately to our evolved origins as social primates. Our
decision-m aking, conscious and otherwise, is informed by our human biology and
the motivations that derive from it. I describe this evolutionary process in the first
third of the book; in the second part I explore how the arrival of culture has modi-
fied this evolutionary process. The last third is an exploration of how artificial intelli-
gence might change this biological essence and radically alter the essence of strategy.
Human strategy reflects the human condition—starting with the basic real-
ity that we are social and embodied agents. We are motivated to reproduce and
survive and have evolved a series of subordinate goals and procedures to enhance
our prospect of survival. Warfare between groups of humans is the consequence of