Statistics: Concepts and Controversies with Tables & ESEE Access Card, 7th Edition PDF
Preview Statistics: Concepts and Controversies with Tables & ESEE Access Card, 7th Edition
This page intentionally left blank Statistics ConceptsandControversies SeniorPublisher: CraigBleyer Publisher: RuthBaruth ExecutiveMarketingManager: JenniferSomerville DevelopmentEditors: ShonaBurke,AnneScanlan-Rohrer SeniorMediaEditor: RolandCheyney AssistantEditor: BrianTedesco EditorialAssistant: KatrinaWilhelm MarketingAssistant: EileenRothschild PhotoEditor: TedSzczepanski PhotoResearcher: JulieTesser TextDesigner: VickiTomaselli CoverDesigner: PaulaJoSmith SeniorProjectEditor: MaryLouiseByrd Illustrations: ICCMacmillanInc., MarkChickinelli ProductionManager: PaulW.Rohloff Composition: ICCMacmillanInc. PrintingandBinding: RRDonnelly MinitabisaregisteredtrademarkofMinitab,Inc.SPSSisaregisteredtrademarkofSPSSInc. LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2008932369 ISBN-13:978-1-4292-2991-3 ISBN-10:1-4292-2991-8 ©2009byW.H.FreemanandCompany.Allrightsreserved. PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica Firstprinting W.H.FreemanandCompany 41MadisonAvenue NewYork,NY10010 www.whfreeman.com Statistics Concepts and Controversies SEVENTHEDITION David S. Moore Purdue University William I. Notz The Ohio State University W. H. Freeman and Company New York This page intentionally left blank Brief Contents Part I Producing Data 1 1 Where Do Data Come From? 3 2 Samples, Good and Bad 21 3 What Do Samples Tell Us? 35 4 Sample Surveys in the Real World 57 5 Experiments, Good and Bad 81 6 Experiments in the Real World 101 7 Data Ethics 123 8 Measuring 143 9 Do the Numbers Make Sense? 165 Part I Review 181 Part II Organizing Data 191 10 Graphs, Good and Bad 193 11 Displaying Distributions with Graphs 217 12 Describing Distributions with Numbers 239 13 Normal Distributions 265 14 Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation 287 15 Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction, and Causation 311 16 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics 339 Part II Review 359 v vi BriefContents Part III Chance 373 17 Thinking about Chance 375 18 Probability Models 395 19 Simulation 411 20 The House Edge: Expected Values 429 Part III Review 445 Part IV Inference 453 21 What Is a Confidence Interval? 455 22 What Is a Test of Significance? 481 23 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference 505 24 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-Square Test∗ 521 Part IV Review 545 ∗Thismaterialisoptional. Contents TotheTeacher:StatisticsasaLiberalDiscipline xiii ApplicationsIndex xxi Prelude:MakingSenseofStatistics xxvii StatisticsandYou:WhatLiesAheadinThisBook xxxiii AbouttheAuthors xxxv Part I Producing Data 1 1 Where Do Data Come From? 3 CaseStudy 3 Talkingaboutdata:Individualsandvariables 4 Observationalstudies 6 Samplesurveys 8 Census 11 Experiments 12 StatisticsinSummary 14 CaseStudy Evaluated 14 Chapter1Exercises 15 ExploringtheWeb 19 NotesandDataSources 19 2 Samples, Good and Bad 21 CaseStudy 21 Howtosamplebadly 21 Simplerandom samples 23 Canyoutrustasample? 28 StatisticsinSummary 29 CaseStudyEvaluated 30 Chapter2Exercises 30 Exploringthe Web 34 NotesandDataSources 34 3 What Do Samples Tell Us? 35 CaseStudy 35 Fromsampletopopulation 36 Sampling variability 37 Marginoferrorandallthat 41 Confidence statements 43 Samplingfromlargepopulations 45 Statistical Controversies:ShouldElectionPollsBeBanned? 46 Statisticsin Summary 47 CaseStudyEvaluated 48 Chapter3Exercises 48 ExploringtheWeb 54 NotesandDataSources 55 4 Sample Surveys in the Real World 57 CaseStudy 57 Howsamplesurveysgowrong 58 Sampling errors 58 Nonsamplingerrors 60 Wordingquestions 63 Howtolivewithnonsamplingerrors 65 Sampledesigninthereal world 65 Questionstoaskbeforeyoubelieveapoll 70 Statisticsin Summary 70 CaseStudyEvaluated 71 Chapter4Exercises 71 ExploringtheWeb 78 NotesandDataSources 79 vii viii Contents 5 Experiments, Good and Bad 81 CaseStudy 81 Talkingaboutexperiments 81 Howtoexperiment badly 83 Randomizedcomparativeexperiments 85 Thelogicof experimentaldesign 88 Statisticalsignificance 90 Howtolive withobservationalstudies 91 StatisticsinSummary 93 Case StudyEvaluated 93 Chapter5Exercises 94 ExploringtheWeb 99 NotesandDataSources 100 6 Experiments in the Real World 101 CaseStudy 101 Equaltreatmentforall 101 Double-blind experiments 102 Refusals,nonadherers,anddropouts 104 Canwegeneralize? 106 Experimentaldesignintherealworld 108 Matchedpairsandblockdesigns 110 StatisticalControversies:IsIt orIsn’tItaPlacebo? 113 StatisticsinSummary 114 CaseStudy Evaluated 114 Chapter6Exercises 115 ExploringtheWeb 120 NotesandDataSources 121 7 Data Ethics 123 CaseStudy 123 Firstprinciples 123 Institutionalreview boards 125 Informedconsent 125 Confidentiality 127 Clinical trials 128 StatisticalControversies:HopeforSale? 130 Behavioralandsocialscienceexperiments 132 Statisticsin Summary 134 CaseStudyEvaluated 134 Chapter7Exercises 135 ExploringtheWeb 141 NotesandDataSources 141 8 Measuring 143 CaseStudy 143 Measurementbasics 143 Knowyour variables 145 Measurementsvalidandinvalid 147 Statistical Controversies:SATExamsinCollegeAdmissions 150 Measurementsaccurateandinaccurate 151 Improvingreliability, reducingbias 153 Pitythepoorpsychologist 155 Statisticsin Summary 157 CaseStudyEvaluated 158 Chapter8Exercises 158 ExploringtheWeb 163 NotesandDataSources 163 9 Do the Numbers Make Sense? 165 CaseStudy 165 Whatdidn’ttheytellus? 165 Arethenumbers consistentwitheachother? 167 Arethenumbersplausible? 169 Arethenumberstoogoodtobetrue? 169 Isthearithmetic right? 170 Isthereahiddenagenda? 173 Statisticsin Summary 174 CaseStudyEvaluated 174 Chapter9 Exercises 175 ExploringtheWeb 179 NotesandData Sources 180
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