Statistical Methods for the Environmental Sciences: A Selection of Papers Presented at the Conference on Environmetrics, held in Cairo, Egypt, April 4–7, 1989

272 Pages·1991·18.88 MB·English

by  C. Borrego

STATISTICAL METHODS
FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
STATISTICAL METHODS
FOR THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
A Selection of Papers Presented at the Conference on Environmetrics,
held in Cairo, Egypt, April 4-7,1989
Edited by
A.H. EL-SHAARAWI
National Water Research Institute,
Canada Centre for Inland Waters, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Reprinted from Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,
Volumel7, Nos. 2/3 (1991)
w
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
Library of Congress Catalog1ng-1n-Publ1catIon Data
Statistical methods for the environrrenta 1 sciences : a selection of
papers presented at the Conference on Environmetrics, held in Cairo,
Egypt, April 4-7, 1989 / edited by A.H. El-Shaarawi.
p. cm.
ISBN 978-94-010-5405-8 ISBN 978-94-011-3186-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-3186-5
1. Pollution—Environmental aspects—Statistical methods-
-Congresses. I. El-Sharaawi, A. H. II. Conference on
Environmetrics (1989 : Cairo, Egypt)
TD193.S73 1991
628--dc20 91-3680
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 1991 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1991
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1991
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Editorial vii
Publisher'sAnnouncement viii
C. BORREGOand C. A. PIO/ Statistical Methods to Apportion the Sources of
ParticlesintheIndustrialRegionofEstarreja-Portugal [1]
A. M. ABOUAMMOH/TheDistributionofMonthlyRainfallIntensityatSome
SitesinSaudiArabia [11]
EKKOC. VAN IERLAND / TheEconomicsofTransboundary AirPollution in
Europe [23]
JACQUELINE OLER / True and False Positive Rates in Maximum Con-
taminantLevelTests [45]
HANS VIGGO SJEB0 / Statistical Analysis of Effects of Measures Against
AgriculturalPollution [59]
ULRICH HELFENSTEIN, URSULA ACKERMANN-LIEBRICH, CHAR
LOTTE BRAUN-FAHRLANDER, and HANS URS WANNER / Air
Pollution and Diseases ofthe Respiratory Tracts in Pre-School Children: A
TransferFunctionModel [69]
F.J. PHILBERT/TheNiagaraRiver: AWaterQualityManagementOverview [79]
BRAJENDRA C. SUTRADHAR and IAN B. MACNEILL / Time Series
ValuedExperimentalDesigns: AReview [89]
J. DUPONT/ExtentofAcidificationinSouthwesternQuebecLakes [103]
CLAUDE LABERGE and GERALD JONES / A Statistical Approach to Field
«ooq
MeasurementsoftheChemicalEvolutionofCold SnowCover [123]
PER SETTERGREN S0RENSEN, JES LA COUR JANSEN, and HENRIK
SPLnD/StatisticalControlofHygienicQualityofBathingWater [139]
STEPHEN J. SMITH, R. IAN PERRY, and L. PAUL FANNING / Relation-
ships Between Water Mass Characteristics and Estimates ofFish Population
Abundancefrom TrawlSurveys [149]
WALTERW. ZWIRNER/SamplingInference,anAlternateStatisticalModel [169]
ROY E. KWIATKOWSKI / Statistical Needs in National Water Quality
MonitoringPrograms [175]
GIOVANNA FINZI, ALBERTO NOVO, and SILVIO VIARENGO / An
Application ofMultivariate Analysis to Acid Rain Data in Northern Italy to
DiscriminateNaturalandMan-MadeCompounds [195]
vi TABLEOFCONTENTS
GUADALUPE SAENZ and NICHOLAS E. PINGITORE/ Characterization of
Hydrocarbon Contaminated Areas by Multivariate Statistical Analysis: Case
Studies [203]
FERNANDO CAMACHO and GIAN L. VASCOITO / Framework for
EnhancingtheStatisticalDesignofAquaticEnvironmentalStudies [225]
A. MAULand A. H. EL-SHAARAWI/ AnalysisofTwo-WayLayoutofCount
DatawithNegativeBinomialVariation [237]
GEOFF HOWELL and A. H. EL-SHAARAWI/ An Overview ofAcidification
ofLakesinAtlanticCanada [245]
A. H. EL-SHAARAWI and A. NADER! / Statistical Inference from Multiply
CensoredEnvironmentalData [261]
EDITORIAL
This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the Conference on Environ
metrics,heldApril4-7, 1989,atRamses HiltonHotel,Cairo,Egypt.Themainobjectives
oftheconferenceweretopromotethedevelopmentandapplicationofstatisticalmethods
inenvironmentalassessmentand toprovideapublishedstate-of-the-artsummaryofthe
application ofstatistical methods that are commonly used to deal with environmental
problems. The material given here will be useful for research workers, students and
decision makers who are involved with the collection, analysis and interpretation of
environmentaldata. Theconference would not have been possible without thesupport
from Environment Canada, the Egyptian Ministry of Scientific Research and the
Egyptian Academy of Scientific Research. I would like to thank Ian B. MacNeill,
Co-chairman ofthe Conference, and the organizingCommittee which included David
Brillinger,S. Fayed, S.R. Esterby, Eivind Damsleth, J. Gani, F. EI-Gohary and R.A.
VollenweiderwhoallcontributedtothesuccessoftheConference.TheassistanceofJohn
Santolucito, Associate Editor of Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, in pub
lishingtheproceedingsisalsogratefullyacknowledged.Thecontributorsandrefreesare
to be thanked for the fine spirit of cooperation and the prompt handling of the
correspondence. Also, thanks to Jocelyne Cantin for handlingthe correspondence and
typingsomeofthe manuscripts.
A.H. EI-Shaarawi
National WaterResearchInstitute.
Burlington. OntarioL7R 4A6. Canada
PUBLISHER'SANNOUNCEMENT
Please note that the page numbers in square brackets apply to this edition of
EnvironmentalMonitoringandAssessment.
The page numbers without square brackets apply to the journal edition (published
earlier).
[I]
STATISTICAL METHODS TO APPORTION THE SOURCES OF
PARTICLES IN THE INDUSTRIAL REGION OF
ESTARREJA - PORTUGAL
C. BORREGOand C.A. PIO
DepartamentodeAmbiente. UniversidadedeAveiro3800AVEIRO- Portugal
(ReceivedJuly 1990)
Abstract.Factoranalysismodelsareveryattractiveforsourceapportionmentandhavebeenwidelyapplied.
Theydonotrequireaprioriknowledgeofthenumberandcompositionofthesources,andtheycanactually
uncover previously unsuspected sources and estimate the composition ofthe sources using only ambient
monitoringdata.
Aerosolparticleswerecollectedfromanindustrialatmosphereandanalysesforwatersolubleandcarbon
components.Principalcomponentsanalysispermittedtheevaluationofthecontributionduetoindustries,soil
fraction,secondarypollutantsandseasprayparticlesofthetotalsuspendedaerosolmass.
Itcan beconcludedthattheatmosphericaerosolintheIndustrialAreaofEstarreja(Portugal)containsa
relativeimportantfractionthatiswatersoluble.Ammoniumsulphatesandnitratesarethemaincomponents
ofthisfraction. Carboncompoundsconstituteabout30%ofthetotalaerosolmass.Thesecompoundsare
mainly formed by organic matter emitted by the industries. Due to the mutagenic and carcinogenic
characteristicsofsomeorganiccompoundsprocessedintheIndustrialArea(vinylchloride,benzene,aniline,
etc.),theconcernexistsofnegativehumanhealtheffectsasaresultofprolongedinhalation.Soilcompoundsis
another important fraction ofthe aerosol mass, mainly in summer with dry, sunny and windy weather
conditions.
Amoreconclusiveideaofthesourcesandeffectsofaerosolmattercanonlybeobtainedwiththespecific
analysis oforganiccompoundsand the determination oftrace elements,characteristicofeach particular
source.
Introduction
Portugal, a semi-industrializedcountry in the western corner ofEurope, is not usually
affected byair pollution imported from moredeveloped European Nations. Therefore,
atmospheric pollutionexists only in restrictedand well localized regions, which include
the mainurbancentres,threeindustrialcomplexesandtheareassurroundingsomelarge
industrial units. In these zones, airpollutionepisodes are usual, resulting incomplaints
from thelocalpopulation.Asaresultofsocialpressures,theauthoritieshaveestablished
'Regional Air Management Commissions' in the most polluted zones with the aim of
assessingand improvinglocal air quality.
The region ofEstarreja,locatedon the westcoast,40 km south ofOporto(Figure 1)
containsacomplexofinorganicandorganicchemicalindustrieswhichinevitablygiverise
to air pollutant emissions. Metal corrosion experiments have indicated that the local
atmosphere is one of the most aggressive in the country (Justo, 1984). The first
measurementsofanairmonitoringprogrammetakingplaceunderthesupervisionofthe
'Estarreja Air Management Commission' have shown that total suspended particle
EnvironmentalMonitoringandAssessment17:79-87,1991.
© 1991KluwerAcademicPublishers.
80[2] C. BORREGOAND C.A. PIO
Fig. I. Mapofthe EstarrejaArea:(I)Main IndustrialComplex;(2)'Nestle';(3) PulpandpaperPlant;(4)
Monitoringsite.
concentrations are higher than the limits recommended by the Economic European
Community(EEC).
In this work, an investigation ofthe major ion composition and carbon content of
aerosol particles collected from Estarreja atmosphere is reported.
THEINDUSTRIALCOMPLEXAND ITSINDUSTRIES
Thefirst industrieswereinstalledin the 1940's;amorerecentexpansionoccurredatthe
beginningofthisdecade. Fourindependentcompanies,'Quimigal','Uniteca',Tires'and
'Isopor',arelocatedtogetherinanareaof2-3km2•'Quimigal'isthe largestinstallation
containing12factorieswhichmanufactureavarietyofcompounds,namelysulphuricacid
bythecontactprocessfrom theutilizationofpyrites,ammoniathrough thesynthesesof
nitrogen and hydrogen, nitricacid from the fertilizers, hydrogenand carbon monoxide
from thethermalcrackingofnaphtha,oxygenand hydrogenthroughtheelectrolysisof
water,nitrobenzenefromthenitrificationofbenzeneandanilinebycatalyticreductionof
nitrobenzene. Presently the ammonia factory is inactive. 'Uniteca' is a chlor-alkali
industry, producing chlorine and caustic soda from theelectrolysisofsodium chloride
brines bythemercurycathodeprocess. 'Cires'lodgesafactory producingvinylchloride
STATISTICALMETHODSTO APPORTION THESOURCES [3]81
monomerfrom acetyleneandtwo unitsproducingpolyvinylchloridebythesuspension
andemulsionprocesses. 'Isopor'manufacturesMDI(methyldiphenyl-isocyanate)using
aniline, chlorineand carbon monoxide as reagents. Located 3km north from the main
complexis'Nestle'a food processingindustry.Ten km tothesouthisapulpandpaper
mill(Figure 1).
Experimental
ThesurveywascarriedoutovertheperiodNovember 1983-September1985.Mostofthe
sampleswerecollectedinoneofeachthreedayperiodforaperiodof24hrs,startingat9
a.m. Thesamplingwasconductedattheoldinstallationofthe'Uprerfactory, located 1
km from the complex.Thesite is located inopen country betweenthe complexand the
town of Estarreja, in the direction of prevalent winds. Therefore, the measurements
should represent the worst pollution conditions in the zone. Aerosol samples were
obtained with a Hi-Volume. Gaseous pollutants were collected in parallel with aerosol
samples and analysed by manual wet chemistry methods.
METEOROLOGICALDATA
Continuousrecordsofwindspeedanddirection, relativehumidity(R.H.),temperature,
hours of sunshine and precipitation were obtained from the weather stations at the
University of Aveiro Campus and at the S. Jacinto Airfield, situated 15 and 18 km
respectively from the industrial complex. From the records, arithmetic mean values of
R.H., temperature and wind speed were calculated for each sampling period. Wind
directiondatawasusedtodeterminethefractionofthesampledairwhichhasbeenblown
through the industrialarea.
STATISTICALANALYSISOFTHE RESULTS
Factoranalysis modelsarebasedontheprincipalcomponentanalysisofthedatawhich
are usually centered and normalized in some manner. The principal components are
unique(uptosignreversals); however,thereareaninfinitenumberoffactormodelsthat
can bederivedfrom theprincipalcomponents.Allfactoranalysismodelsrelyonalinear
transformation oftheprincipal components.to produce a 'best' factor model. The two
most widely used transformations are the orthogonal VARIMAX rotation and the
oblique target transformation.
Principal Component Factor analysis is a technique frequently applied to aerosol
component concentrations for the identification of class sources contribution to TSP
(Total Suspended Particles) levels (Cooper and Watson, 1980). Incorporation of
meteorological data on the analysis has been done, permitting the clarification ofthe
influenceofweatherconditionsontheaerosolformationmechanisms(Sextonetal., 1985;
and Henry and Hidy, 1979).
Using Principal Components, or concentrations with higher factor scores, as inde
pendentvariablesandTSPasdependentvariables,MultilinearRegression methodshave