Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources (International Association for Mathematical Geology: Studies in Mathematical Geology)

257 Pages·2008·4.88 MB·English

by  P.J. Lee

Statistical Methods for Estimating
Petroleum Resources
International Association for Mathematical Geology
STUDIES IN MATHEMATICAL GEOLOGY
1. William B. Size, Editor
Use and Abuse of Statistical Methods in the Earth Sciences
2. Lawrence J. Drew
Oil and Gas Forecasting: Refl ections of a Petroleum Geologist
3. Ricardo A. Olea, Editor
Geostatistical Glossary and Multilingual Dictionary
4. Regina L. Hunter and C. John Mann, Editors
Techniques for Determining Probabilities of Geologic Events and Processes
5. John C. Davis and Ute Christina Herzfeld, Editors
Computers in Geology—25 Years of Progress
6. George Christakos
Modern Spatiotemporal Geostatistics
7. Vera Pawlowsky–Glahn and Ricardo Olea
Geostatistical Analysis of Compositional Data
8. P. J. Lee
Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources
STATISTICAL METHODS FOR
ESTIMATING PETROLEUM
RESOURCES
P. J. Lee
3
2008
1
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Lee, P. J.
Statistical methods for estimating petroleum resources / P.J. Lee.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-19-533190-5
1. Petroleum—Statistics. 2. Petroleum reserves—Statistics.
3. Petroleum industry and trade—Statistics. I. Title.
TN871.L374 2008
333.8′23015195—dc22 2007023993
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
Pei-Jen (P.J.) Lee
1934–1999
Oxford University Press mourns the loss of P.J. Lee,
scholar, teacher, author, and friend. He completed work
on this book just before his untimely death, and we
gratefully dedicate it to him in recognition of his lifelong
commitment to science.
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Foreword to the Series
This series, Studies in Mathematical Geology (SMG), is issued under
the auspices of the International Association for Mathematical
Geology. It was established in 1984 by founding editor Richard B.
McCammon to serve as an outlet for book-length contributions on
topics of special interest to the geomathematical community and
interdisciplinary branches that look to the Association for leadership
in the application and use of mathematics in geoscience research and
technology.
SMG no. 8 describes the underlying statistical concepts and meth-
odology used by the PETRIMES system for petroleum resource assess-
ment. Research on PETRIMES was initiated in 1979 at the Geological
Survey of Canada by P. J. Lee, who acknowledged Prof. Gordon
Kaufman’s original discovery process model as his inspiration. The
manuscript was written in 1999 during Prof. Lee’s tenure at the National
Cheng Kung University of Taiwan, shortly before his regrettably early,
unexpected death. Originally intended as a text for graduate students,
Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources summarizes
Prof. Lee’s research on the topic. The PETRIMES system, widely used
in the petroleum industry, continues to evolve.
Jo Anne DeGraffenreid, Editor
Baldwin City, Kansas, USA
vii
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Foreword
Oil and gas discovery process modeling bloomed during the late 1970s
and early 1980s. P. J. Lee was a principal gardener. He nourished its
development with passion. P. J. insisted that forecasts of undiscovered
oil and gas in petroleum plays that he analyzed be based on sound geol-
ogy and accurate modeling.
It is one thing to construct a model of oil and gas discovery in a petro-
leum play and publish a paper describing how to apply it to one or two
example plays. However, a much larger and more diffi cult undertaking
is the construction of a smoothly functioning system for the projection
of future discoveries in each of a hundred plays with widely varying
geological characteristics and discovery histories based on models of
oil and gas discovery. P. J. was an intellectual spark plug who, with
single-minded intensity, insisted on logical rigor, careful calibration,
and constant improvement of just such a system: PETRIMES. He and
his longtime colleagues Richard Procter and Paul Wang created this
fl agship of petroleum discovery systems. P. J. continued to modify and
improve it until he left us—much too soon.
We are fortunate that he chose to write for us this account of discov-
ery process modeling. It refl ects his long and deep experience in appli-
cations of PETRIMES to petroleum plays throughout the world, and
to plays in Alberta’s Western Canada Sedimentary Basin in particular.
In addition to being an invaluable record of research for a period of
nearly 20 years, this manuscript is a benchmark for future research. It
is required reading for the next generation of practitioners.
I have always been struck by the elegant fashion in which the
Geological Survey of Canada presents its periodic summaries of
Canadian oil and gas remaining to be discovered. These publications
bear P. J.’s mark. If he were still with us, I know that he would be an
enthusiastic participant in applying the new wave of computational
methods washing over computer modeling and simulation.
I met P. J. soon after his arrival at the Institute of Sedimentary and
Petroleum Geology. It was clear from the outset that he was beyond
dedicated, driven perhaps, to understand and to get it right. Although I
wish that I could have had more personal time with him, we maintained
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