(ST2004/ST2352) aka Cool Stuff with Random Numbers

21 Pages·2015·0.19 MB·English

Applied Probability (ST2004/ST2352)
a.k.a. Cool Stuff with Random Numbers
Instructor: Brett Houlding
E-mail: [email protected]
Room: Lloyd’s Room 129
Class hours:
Monday 09:00–10:00 ICT Lab 1 & 2
Tuesday 17:00–18:00 LB08
Wednesday 15:00–16:00 LB04
Location of on-line resources:
https://www.scss.tcd.ie/Brett.Houlding/Index/ST2004_ST2352.html
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Assessment
•
Exam 2 hours (80%).
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Two compulsory group projects (10% and 10%).
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Reassessment 100% supplimental exam.
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Optional single project worth 30% of your marks and which can only
increase your grade!
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For example, if a standard assessment gives a mark of 40.
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Then if optional project had a mark of 30 the final mark remains at 40.
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But if optional project had a mark of 50 the final mark becomes
. × . ×
0 3 50 + 0 7 40 = 43.
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What is examinable?
Unless expressly stated otherwise:
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All material presented in class/labs including:
– Material in handouts.
– Anything additional that is written on the blackboard.
– Anything else additional that is said verbally during lectures or labs.
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Reading
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There is one main text, namely Tjims’ ‘Understanding Probability’
(Cambridge 2007).
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Part One is Probability in Action
– Chapter 1 has 12 probability questions.
– Chapters 2 and 3 include detailed case studies.
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Part Two has relevant chapters 7 through 11 and 13.
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More Reading
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Other texts include:
– Swift, L: ‘Mathematics and Statistics for Business, Management and
Finance’ (MacMillan 1997).
– Dekker, Kraaikamp, Lopuhaa, Meester: ‘A Modern Introduction to
Probability and Statistics’ (Springer 2005).
– Stirzaker, D: ‘Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner’s Guide’
(Cambridge 2005).
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Idea Generating Reads
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Other texts, good for ideas!
– Applebaum, D: ‘Probability and Information’ (Cambridge 2nd edition
2008).
– Plous, S: ‘The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making’
(Cambridge 2005).
– Taleb, NN: ‘Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the
Markets and in Life (Random House, 2005).
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Web Resources
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http://understandinguncertainty.org/
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http://www.rss.org.uk/
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http://www.random.org/
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http://www.intuitor.com/statistics/index.html
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And many others...
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What are we about?
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Making precise statements about uncertainty.
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Uncertainty is lack of information.
– Information means money/competitive advantage.
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Making decisions
– In face of uncertainty!
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Modelling, discussing, evaluating systems.
– Using computer and elementary maths.
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Understanding Uncertainty in ‘Systems’ ?
• model
Use computers to uncertainty.
– Using random numbers to represent events.
– Summaries of many replications allow us to consider how a system
with randomness behaves in the long run.
•
We will use mathematical notation:
– Precise statements about combining elementary events.
– Probability distributions for random variables.
– Summaries of probability distributions.
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Labs
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We will use Excel in labs.
– Alternative computing platforms fine (I use R in ST2006 and ST3011).
– Pseudo-code ok to use in exam environment.
– If unfamiliar of syntax/functions templates and help are available.
•
Excel and Maths:
etc X Y etc
– Cells such as A1, B3, . can represent variables or .
– They can contain values, instances, realisations.
Y X2
– Math formula of = 2 + 3 would be represented as an Excel formula
in a particular cell, say B3, of =2*A1^2+3.
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