Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis: The HESPERIA HORIZON 2020 Project and Beyond

210 Pages·2018·7.438 MB·English

by  Olga E. Malandraki,Norma B. Crosby (eds.)

Astrophysics and Space Science Library 444
Olga E. Malandraki
Norma B. Crosby
Editors
Solar Particle
Radiation Storms
Forecasting
and Analysis
The HESPERIA HORIZON 2020 Project
and Beyond
Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting
and Analysis
Astrophysics and Space Science Library
EDITORIAL BOARD
Chairman
W.B.BURTON,NationalRadioAstronomyObservatory,Charlottesville,
Virginia,U.S.A.([email protected]);UniversityofLeiden,TheNetherlands
([email protected])
F.BERTOLA,UniversityofPadua,Italy
C.J.CESARSKY,CommissionforAtomicEnergy,Saclay,France
P.EHRENFREUND,LeidenUniversity,TheNetherlands
O.ENGVOLD,UniversityofOslo,Norway
E.P.J.VANDENHEUVEL,UniversityofAmsterdam,TheNetherlands
V.M.KASPI,McGillUniversity,Montreal,Canada
J.M.E.KUIJPERS,UniversityofNijmegen,TheNetherlands
H.VANDERLAAN,UniversityofUtrecht,TheNetherlands
P.G.MURDIN,InstituteofAstronomy,Cambridge,UK
B.V.SOMOV,AstronomicalInstitute,MoscowStateUniversity,Russia
R.A.SUNYAEV,MaxPlanckInstituteforAstrophysics,Garching,Germany
Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/5664
Olga E. Malandraki • Norma B. Crosby
Editors
Solar Particle Radiation
Storms Forecasting
and Analysis
The HESPERIA HORIZON 2020 Project
and Beyond
Editors
OlgaE.Malandraki NormaB.Crosby
NationalObservatoryofAthens SpacePhysicsDivision-SpaceWeather
IAASARS RoyalBelgianInstituteforSpaceAeronomy
Athens,Greece Brussels,Belgium
ISSN0067-0057 ISSN2214-7985 (electronic)
AstrophysicsandSpaceScienceLibrary
ISBN978-3-319-60050-5 ISBN978-3-319-60051-2 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-60051-2
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Preface
RanginginenergyfromtensofkeVtoafewGeVsolarenergeticparticles(SEPs)
are an important contributor to the characterization of the space environment.
EmittedfromtheSuntheyareassociatedwithsolarflaresandshockwavesdriven
bycoronalmassejections(CMEs).SEPradiationstormsmaylastfromaperiodof
hours to days or even weeks and have a large range of energy spectrum profiles.
Theseeventsposeathreattomoderntechnologyrelyingonspacecraftandhumans
in space as they are a serious radiation hazard. Though our understanding of
the underlyingphysics behind the generation mechanism of SEP events and their
propagationfromtheSuntoEarthhasimprovedduringthelastdecades,tobeable
tosuccessfullypredictaSEPeventisstillnotastraightforwardprocess.
Themotivationbehindthe2-yearHESPERIA(HighEnergySolarParticleEvents
forecastingandAnalysis)projectoftheEUHORIZON2020programme,success-
fullycompletedinApril2017,wasindeedtofurtherourscientificunderstandingand
predictioncapabilityofhigh-energySEP eventsby buildingnew forecastingtools
whileexploitingnovelaswellasalreadyexistingdatasets.HESPERIA,ledbythe
NationalObservatoryofAthens,withProjectCoordinatorDr.OlgaE.Malandraki,
wasaconsortiumofnineEuropeanteamsthatalsocollaboratedduringtheproject
with a number of institutes and individuals from the international community.
The complementary expertise of the teams made it possible to achieve the main
objectivesoftheHESPERIAproject:
(cid:129) To develop two novel real-time SEP forecasting systems based upon proven
concepts.
(cid:129) To develop SEP forecasting tools searching for electromagnetic proxies of the
gamma-rayemissioninordertopredictlargeSEPevents.
(cid:129) To perform systematic exploitation of novel high-energy gamma-ray observa-
tionsoftheFERMImissiontogetherwithinsituSEPmeasurementsnear1AU.
(cid:129) Toprovideforthefirsttimepubliclyavailablesoftwaretoinvertneutronmonitor
observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared
withspace-bornemeasurementsatlowerenergies.
v
vi Preface
(cid:129) Toperformexaminationofcurrentlyunexploitedtools(e.g.radioemission).
(cid:129) TodesignrecommendationsforfutureSEPforecastingsystems.
This book reviews our current understanding of SEP physics and presents the
resultsoftheHESPERIAproject.InChap.1thebookprovidesahistoricaloverview
on how SEPs were discovered back in the 1940s and how our understanding has
increased and evolved since then. Current state of the art based on the unique
measurements analysed in the three-dimensional heliosphere and the key SEP
questionsthatremain to be answered in view of the future missionsSolar Orbiter
andParkerSolarProbethatwillexplorethesolarcoronaandinnerheliosphereare
alsopresented.ThisisfollowedbyanintroductiontowhySEPsarestudiedinthe
firstplacedescribingtherisksthatSEPeventsposeontechnologyandhumanhealth.
Chapters2through6serveasbackgroundmaterialcoveringsolaractivityrelatedto
SEP events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, particle acceleration
mechanisms,andtransportofparticlesthroughtheinterplanetarymedium,Earth’s
magnetosphere and atmosphere. Furthermore, ground-basedneutron monitors are
described.Thelastfourchaptersofthebookarededicatedtoandpresentthemain
resultsoftheHESPERIAproject.Thisincludesthetworeal-timeHESPERIASEP
forecastingtoolsthatweredeveloped,relativisticSEPrelatedgamma-rayandradio
datacomparisonstudies,modellingofSEPeventsassociatedwithgamma-raysand
theinversionmethodologyforneutronmonitorobservationsthatinferstherelease
timescalesofrelativisticSEPsatorneartheSun.
WithemphasisonSEPforecastinganddataanalysis,thisbookcanbothserveas
areferencebookandbeusedforspacephysicsandspaceweathercoursesaddressed
tograduateandadvancedundergraduatestudents.Wehopethereaderofthisbook
willfindtheworldofSEPeventsjustasfascinatingaswedoourselves.
OlgaE.Malandraki
NormaB.Crosby
Acknowledgements
TheHESPERIAprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon
2020research and innovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo 637324.The
authorsthanktheEU forthissupportmakingit possibleto furtherourknowledge
insolarenergeticparticleresearchandforecasting,aswellaswritethisbook.
The authors of Chaps. 4, 9 and 10 acknowledge the use of ERNE data from
the Space Research Laboratory of the University of Turku and of the SEPEM
ReferenceData Set version2.00,EuropeanSpace Agency(2016).Theythankthe
ACE/EPAM, SWEPAM and MAG instrumentteams and the ACE Science Center
for providingthe ACE data. They acknowledge the use of publicly available data
products from WIND/SWE and 3DP, GOES13/HEPAD and the CME catalogues
from SoHO/LASCO and STEREO/COR1. SoHO is a project of international
cooperation between ESA and NASA. They acknowledge also the use of the
Harvard-SmithsonianInterplanetaryshock Database maintained by M. L. Stevens
andJ.C.KasperandoftheHeliosphericShockDatabase,generatedandmaintained
attheUniversityofHelsinki.
Rolf Bütikofer thanks Erwin Flückiger and Claudine Frieden for their sug-
gestions and assistance in writing Chaps. 5 and 6. This work was supported by
the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI) under
the contract number 15.0233 and by the International Foundation High Altitude
ResearchStationsJungfraujochandGornergrat.
TheauthorsofChap.7thanktheNationalOceanicAtmosphericAdministration
(NOAA) for providing GOES data files which were used to calibrate and evalu-
ate the HESPERIA UMASEP-500 tool. They acknowledge the NMDB database
(www.nmdb.eu)fundedundertheEuropeanUnion’sFP7programme(contractNo.
213007).Theyalso acknowledgeDr. Juan RodriguezfromNOAA for his support
on the estimation of >500 MeV integral proton flux and expert advice on the
GOES/HEPADdata.
The authors of Chap. 8 acknowledge STEREO/HET/LET/SEPT, ACE/EPAM,
ACE/SIS, GOES/HEPAD, WIND/3DP and SoHO/ERNE/EPHIN teams as well
as the SEPServer team for the availability of the energetic particle data. The
STEREO/SEPT and the SoHO/EPHIN projects are supported under grant
vii
viii Acknowledgements
50OC1702 by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology on the basis
of a decision by the German Bundestag. Gerald H. Share and Ronald J. Murphy
(Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park MD 20742
andNationalObservatoryof Athens;NavalResearchLaboratory,WashingtonDC
20375) are acknowledged for making Fermi/LAT data available to the project
prior to their publication. Specifically, the authors of Chap. 9 thank G. Share for
providingthedataoninteractingprotonspectraderivedfromtheFermi/LAT”-ray
observations.
Alexandr Afanasiev and Rami Vainio acknowledge the financial support of
the Academy of Finland (project 267186) and the computing resources of the
FinnishGridandCloudInfrastructuremaintainedbyCSC—ITCentreforScience
Ltd. (Espoo, Finland) and co-funded by the Academy of Finland and 13 Finnish
researchinstitutions.TheteamoftheUniversityofBarcelonahasbeenalsopartially
supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad,
under the project AYA2013-42614-P and MDM-2014-0369 of ICCUB (Unidad
de Excelencia ‘María de Maeztu’). Computational support was provided by the
ConsorcideServeisUniverstiarisdeCatalunya(CSUC).
Alexis P. Rouillard (externalcollaborator of the HESPERIA project) acknowl-
edges support from the plasma physics data center (Centre de Données de la
Physique des Plasmas; CDPP; http://cdpp.eu/), the Virtual Solar Observatory
(VSO;http://sdac.virtualsolar.org),theMultiExperimentData&OperationCenter
(MEDOC; https://idoc.ias.u-psud.fr/MEDOC), the French space agency (Centre
National des Etudes Spatiales; CNES; https://cnes.fr/fr) and the space weather
teaminToulouse(Solar-TerrestrialObservationsandModellingService;STORMS;
https://stormsweb.irap.omp.eu/).ThisincludesthedataminingtoolsAMDA(http://
amda.cdpp.eu/)and the propagationtool (http://propagationtool.cdpp.eu).He also
acknowledges financial support from the HELCATS project under the FP7 EU
contractnumber606692.TheSTEREOSECCHIdataareproducedbyaconsortium
ofRAL(UK),NRL(USA),LMSAL(USA),GSFC(USA),MPS(Germany),CSL
(Belgium),IOTA(France)andIAS(France).
The authorsthankSpringerfor their interest in the HESPERIA projectand the
opportunityforthepublicationofitsresults.
Contents
1 Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather: Science
andApplications............................................................ 1
OlgaE.MalandrakiandNormaB.Crosby
2 EruptiveActivityRelatedtoSolarEnergeticParticleEvents......... 27
Karl-LudwigKlein
3 ParticleAccelerationMechanisms........................................ 45
RamiVainioandAlexandrAfanasiev
4 ChargedParticleTransportintheInterplanetaryMedium........... 63
AngelsAran,NeusAgueda,AlexandrAfanasiev,andBlaiSanahuja
5 CosmicRayParticleTransportintheEarth’sMagnetosphere ....... 79
R.Bütikofer
6 Ground-Based Measurements of Energetic Particles
byNeutronMonitors....................................................... 95
R.Bütikofer
7 HESPERIAForecastingTools:Real-TimeandPost-Event ........... 113
Marlon Núñez, Karl-Ludwig Klein, Bernd Heber,
Olga E. Malandraki, Pietro Zucca, Johannes Labrens,
PedroReyes-Santiago,PatrickKuehl,andEvgeniosPavlos
8 X-Ray, Radio and SEP Observations of Relativistic
Gamma-RayEvents........................................................ 133
Karl-LudwigKlein,KostasTziotziou,PietroZucca,EinoValtonen,
Nicole Vilmer, Olga E. Malandraki, Clarisse Hamadache,
BerndHeber,andJürgenKiener
9 ModellingofShock-AcceleratedGamma-RayEvents.................. 157
AlexandrAfanasiev,AngelsAran,RamiVainio,AlexisRouillard,
Pietro Zucca, David Lario, Suvi Barcewicz, Robert Siipola,
JensPomoell,BlaiSanahuja,andOlgaE.Malandraki
ix