Smart Solutions to Climate Change: Comparing Costs and Benefits

438 Pages·2010·13.813 MB·English

by  Bjørn Lomborg

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SmartSolutionstoClimateChange
ThefailureoftheCopenhagenclimateconferencein
December2009revealedmajorflawsinthewaythe
world’spolicymakershaveattemptedtoprevent
dangerouslevelsofincreasesinglobaltemperatures.
Theexpertauthorsinthisspeciallycommissioned
collectionfocusonthelikelycostsandbenefitsofa
verywiderangeofpolicyoptions,including
geoengineering;mitigationofCO ,CH ,and“black
2 4
carbon”;expandingforestCarbonSequestration;
R&Doflow-carbonenergy;andencouraginggreen
technologytransfer.Foreachpolicy,theauthors
outlineallofthecosts,benefits,andlikelyoutcomes,
infullyreferenced,clearlypresentedchapters
accompaniedbyshorter,criticalalternative
Perspectivepapers.Tofurtherstimulatedebate,an
ExpertPanelofeconomists,includingthreeNobel
laureates,evaluatesandrankstheattractivenessof
thepolicies.
Thisauthoritativeandthought-provokingbook
willchallengereaderstoformtheirownconclusions
aboutthebestwaystorespondtoglobalwarming.
BJØRNLOMBORGisDirectoroftheCopenhagen
ConsensusCenterandAdjunctProfessorinthe
DepartmentofManagement,PoliticsandPhilosophy
atCopenhagenBusinessSchool.Heistheauthor
ofthecontroversialbestseller,TheSkeptical
Environmentalist(Cambridge,2001),andwasnamed
asoneofthetop100intellectualsbyForeignPolicy
andProspectmagazinesin2008.

Smart Solutions
to Climate
Change
Comparing Costs
and Benefits
Editedby
BJØRN LOMBORG
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore,
São Paulo, Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521763424
© Copenhagen Consensus Center 2010
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the
provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part
may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2010
ISBN-13 978-0-521-76342-4 Hardback
ISBN-13 978-0-521-13856-7 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy
of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
Contents
Listoffigures vii
Listoftables x
Listofcontributors xiv
Acknowledgments xix
Listofabbreviationsandacronyms xx
Introduction 1
BjørnLomborg
PART I THE SOLUTIONS
1 ClimateEngineering 9
J.EricBickelandLeeLane
alternative perspectives
1.1 RogerA.Pielke,Jr. 52
1.2 AnneE.Smith 62
2 CarbonDioxideMitigation 74
RichardS.J.Tol
alternative perspectives
2.1 OnnoKuik 106
2.2 RobertoRoson 109
3 ForestryCarbonSequestration 114
BrentSohngen
alternative perspective
3.1 SabineFuss 133
4 BlackCarbonMitigation 142
RobertE.Baron,W.DavidMontgomery,
andSugandhaD.Tuladhar
alternative perspective
4.1 MilindKandlikar,ConorC.O.
Reynolds,andAndrewP.Grieshop 159
5 MethaneMitigation 172
ClaudiaKemfertandWolf-PeterSchill
alternative perspectives
5.1 DavidAnthoff 198
v
vi Contents
5.2 DanielJ.A.JohanssonandFredrik
Hedenus 208
6 Market-andPolicy-DrivenAdaptation 222
FrancescoBosello,CarloCarraro,and
EnricaDeCian
alternative perspectives
6.1 SamuelFankhauser 277
6.2 FrankJotzo 284
7 Technology-LedClimatePolicy 292
IsabelGalianaandChristopherGreen
alternative perspectives
7.1 ValentinaBosetti 340
7.2 GregoryNemet 349
8 TechnologyTransfer 360
ZiliYang
alternative perspective
8.1 DavidPopp 371
PART II RANKING THE OPPORTUNITIES
ExpertPanelRanking 381
NancyL.Stokey,VernonL.Smith,Thomas
C.Schelling,FinnE.Kydland,and
JagdishN.Bhagwati
Conclusion 395
BjørnLomborg
Index 397
Figures
1.1 NCtemperaturechangeswith 1.2.3 DecisiontreeforSRMdecision
thedeploymentofSRM madewithimprovedinformation
(2005–2205) page30 fromR&D 68
1.2 Differenceintemperature 2.1 Thefourteenestimatesofthe
(a)relativetoNCand(b)the globaleconomicimpactof
equivalentequilibriumradiative climatechange 77
forcing(2005–2205) 31 2.2 AveragereductioninGDPdueto
1.3 OCtemperaturechangeswiththe climatepolicyaimingatthree
deploymentofSRM(2005–2205) 32 alternativestabilizationtargets
1.4 (a)Optimalemissionscontrols foratmosphericGHGs
and(b)carbontaxeswiththeuse (2020–2100) 87
ofSRM(2005–2205) 32 2.3 Averagecarbontaxneededfor
1.5 DifferenceinSRMCO threealternativestabilization
2
concentrationscomparedtoOC targetsforatmosphericGHGs
andNC(2005–2205) 33 (2020–2100) 88
1.6 OCtemperaturechangeswith 2.4 Grossworldincomeforthe
2055deploymentofSRM no-policyandfivealternative
(2005–2205) 34 policyscenarios(2000–2100) 91
1.7 Temperaturechangeswiththe 2.5 GlobalCO emissionsfromfossil
2
deploymentofSRMundera2°C fuelcombustionandindustrial
temperatureconstraint processesfortheno-policyand
(2005–2205) 35 fivealternativepolicyscenarios
1.8 (a)Optimalemissionsratesand (2000–2100) 92
(b)carbontaxesundera2°C 2.6 Atmosphericconcentrationof
constraint(2005–2205) 35 CO fortheno-policyandfive
2
1.9 OCtemperaturechangeswiththe alternativepolicyscenarios
deploymentofAC(2005–2205) 38 (2000–2100) 92
1.10 (a)Optimalemissionscontrols 2.7 Monetizedimpactofclimate
and(b)carbontaxeswiththeuse changefortheno-policyandfive
ofAC(2005–2205) 38 alternativepolicyscenarios
1.11 DifferenceinACandSRMCO (2000–2100) 93
2
concentrationscomparedtoOC 2.8 Monetizedandnormalizedbenefit
(2005–2205) 39 ofthefivealternativepolicy
1.1.1 Radiativeforcingincontext 56 scenarios(2000–2100) 94
1.2.1 Representationofdeterministic 2.9 Normalizedcostofthefive
analysisofchapter1asadecision alternativepolicyscenarios
tree 65 (2000–2100) 94
1.2.2 RepresentationofSRMdecision 2.10 BCRofthefivealternativepolicy
asadecisionunderuncertainty 65 scenarios(2000–2100) 95
vii
viii Listoffigures
3.1 Marginalcostfunctionsfor 6.4 Technicalchangeandoptimal
carbonsequestration(2030) 119 abatementinthepresenceof
3.2 Carbonpricepathsunderthree mitigationandadaptation 231
scenarios(r=5%)(2010–2100) 122 6.5 Equilibrium(a)mitigationand(b)
3.3 Carbonpricepathsunderthree adaptationinthenon-cooperative
scenarios(r=3%)(2010–2100) 124 scenario(2010–2100) 235
3.4 Globalmarginalcostcurve(2030) 6.6 Residualdamageinthe
withandwithouttransaction non-cooperativescenario
costs 127 (2010–2100) 236
4.1 Uncertaintyintemperature 6.7 Residualdamageinthe
sensitivity 143 non-cooperativescenario:high
4.2 Contributionofblackcarbonto damagelowdiscountrate
increasesinaverageglobal (2010–2100) 237
temperature 146 6.8 Optimal(a)mitigationand
4.3 Blackcarbonemissions (b)adaptationinacooperative
(1900–2000) 147 scenario(2010–2100) 238
4.4 Regionalshareofblackcarbon 6.9 Effectsof(a)mitigationon
emissions(2000) 147 (b)adaptation(2010–2100) 239
4.5 Blackcarbonemissions,byregion 6.10 CO emissions(2010–2100) 240
2
(2000) 148 6.11 Globalwelfare(2010–2100) 240
4.6 MACsforblackcarbon 151 6.12 Scaleandtimingofadaptation
5.1 GlobalanthropogenicGHG investments,(a)cooperative,
emissions,bygas(2005) 173 (b)non-cooperative(2010–2100) 243
5.2 GlobalanthropogenicCH 6.13 Adaptationexpendituresin(a)
4
emissions,bysource(2005) 174 non-OECDand(b)OECD
5.3 CH emissions,differentregions countries(2010–2100) 244
4
(1970–2005) 175 6.14 Thestructureofanintegrated
5.4 GlobalCH emissions:baseline impactassessmentexercise 249
4
andeconomicmitigation 6.15 Directvs.finalclimatechange
potentials(2020) 186 costsaspercentageofregional
5.1.1 TemperatureforBAUand GDP(2050) 250
solutionA(2000–2100) 199 6.16 Roleofimpactinteraction:
5.1.2 Temperature 201 percentagedifferencebetween
5.2.1 Temperatureresponsefollowing GDPcostsofallclimaticimpacts
emissionpulsesofCO andCH 210 implementedjointlyandthesum
2 4
6.1 Temperatureestimatesofthe ofGDPcostsassociatedwith
IPCCSRES(IIASA),the eachimpactimplemented
WITCHmodelandthe individually 250
AD-WITCHbaselinescenario 6.17 Finalclimatechangeimpactas
(2010–2100) 224 percentageofregionalGDP
6.2 Climatechangedamagesasa (2050) 251
functionofglobalmean 6.18 Economiccostofclimatechange
temperatureincrease(above includingmarket-driven
preindustriallevels) 225 adaptation 252
6.3 Mitigationandadaptation 6.19 Climatechangedamagewithand
impacts:aschematic“decision withoutmarket-drivenadaptation
space” 231 (2005–2100) 252