Simulating Social Complexity: A Handbook PDF
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Understanding Complex Systems Bruce Edmonds Ruth Meyer Editors Simulating Social Complexity A Handbook Springer Complexity Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the best research and academic-levelteachingonbothfundamentalandappliedaspectsofcomplexsystems —cuttingacrossalltraditionaldisciplinesofthenaturalandlifesciences,engineering, economics,medicine,neuroscience,socialandcomputerscience. ComplexSystemsaresystemsthatcomprisemanyinteractingpartswiththeabilityto generateanewqualityofmacroscopiccollectivebehaviorthemanifestationsofwhichare thespontaneousformationofdistinctivetemporal,spatialorfunctionalstructures.Models ofsuchsystemscanbesuccessfullymappedontoquitediverse“real-life”situationslikethe climate,thecoherentemissionoflightfromlasers,chemicalreaction-diffusionsystems, biologicalcellularnetworks,thedynamicsofstockmarketsandoftheinternet,earthquake statisticsandprediction,freewaytraffic,thehumanbrain,ortheformationofopinionsin socialsystems,tonamejustsomeofthepopularapplications. Although their scope and methodologies overlap somewhat, one can distinguish the following main concepts and tools: self-organization, nonlinear dynamics, synergetics, turbulence, dynamical systems, catastrophes, instabilities, stochastic processes, chaos, graphsandnetworks,cellularautomata,adaptivesystems,geneticalgorithmsandcompu- tationalintelligence. ThethreemajorbookpublicationplatformsoftheSpringerComplexityprogramarethe monographseries“UnderstandingComplexSystems”focusingonthevariousapplications ofcomplexity,the“SpringerSeriesinSynergetics”,whichisdevotedtothequantitative theoretical and methodological foundations, and the “SpringerBriefs in Complexity” whichareconciseandtopicalworkingreports,case-studies,surveys,essaysandlecture notesofrelevancetothefield.Inadditiontothebooksinthesetwocoreseries,theprogram alsoincorporatesindividualtitlesrangingfromtextbookstomajorreferenceworks. EditorialandProgrammeAdvisoryBoard HenryAbarbanel,InstituteforNonlinearScience,UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,USA DanBraha,NewEnglandComplexSystemsInstituteandUniversityofMassachusettsDartmouth,USA Pe´terE´rdi,CenterforComplexSystemsStudies,KalamazooCollege,USAandHungarianAcademyof Sciences,Budapest,Hungary KarlFriston,InstituteofCognitiveNeuroscience,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,UK HermannHaken,CenterofSynergetics,UniversityofStuttgart,Stuttgart,Germany Viktor Jirsa, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universite´ de la Me´diterrane´e, Marseille,France JanuszKacprzyk,SystemResearch,PolishAcademyofSciences,Warsaw,Poland KunihikoKaneko,ResearchCenterforComplexSystemsBiology,TheUniversityofTokyo,Tokyo, Japan ScottKelso,CenterforComplexSystemsandBrainSciences,FloridaAtlanticUniversity,BocaRaton, USA MarkusKirkilionis,MathematicsInstituteandCentreforComplexSystems,UniversityofWarwick, Coventry,UK Ju¨rgenKurths,NonlinearDynamicsGroup,UniversityofPotsdam,Potsdam,Germany AndrzejNowak,DepartmentofPsychology,WarsawUniversity,Poland LindaReichl,CenterforComplexQuantumSystems,UniversityofTexas,Austin,USA PeterSchuster,TheoreticalChemistryandStructuralBiology,UniversityofVienna,Vienna,Austria FrankSchweitzer,SystemDesign,ETHZurich,Zurich,Switzerland DidierSornette,EntrepreneurialRisk,ETHZurich,Zurich,Switzerland StefanThurner,SectionforScienceofComplexSystems,MedicalUniversityofVienna,Vienna,Austria Understanding Complex Systems FoundingEditor:S.Kelso Future scientific and technological developments in many fields will necessarily dependuponcomingtogripswithcomplexsystems.Suchsystemsarecomplexin both their composition -typicallymanydifferent kinds ofcomponents interacting simultaneouslyandnonlinearlywitheachotherandtheirenvironmentsonmultiple levels–andintherichdiversityofbehaviorofwhichtheyarecapable. TheSpringerSeriesinUnderstandingComplexSystemsseries(UCS)promotes new strategies and paradigms for understanding and realizing applications of complex systems research in a wide variety of fields and endeavors. UCS is explicitlytransdisciplinary.Ithasthreemaingoals: First, to elaborate the concepts, methods and tools of complex systems at all levels of description and in all scientific fields, especially newly emerging areas within the life, social, behavioral, economic, neuro- and cognitive sciences (and derivatives thereof); second, to encourage novel applications of these ideas in various fields of engineering and computation such as robotics, nano-technology and informatics; third, toprovide a single forumwithin which commonalities and differencesintheworkingsofcomplexsystemsmaybediscerned,henceleadingto deeperinsightandunderstanding. UCS will publish monographs, lecture notes and selected edited contributions aimedatcommunicatingnewfindingstoalargemultidisciplinaryaudience. Forfurthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5394 Bruce Edmonds (cid:129) Ruth Meyer Editors Simulating Social Complexity A Handbook Editors BruceEdmonds RuthMeyer CPM-CentreforPolicyModelling ManchesterMetropolitanUniversity Manchester UnitedKingdom ISSN1860-0832 ISSN1860-0840(electronic) ISBN978-3-540-93812-5 ISBN978-3-540-93813-2(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-540-93813-2 SpringerHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013934710 #Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2013 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.Exemptedfromthislegalreservationarebriefexcerpts inconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysisormaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeing enteredandexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework.Duplication ofthispublicationorpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheCopyrightLawofthe Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer.PermissionsforusemaybeobtainedthroughRightsLinkattheCopyrightClearanceCenter. ViolationsareliabletoprosecutionundertherespectiveCopyrightLaw. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication,neithertheauthorsnortheeditorsnorthepublishercanacceptanylegalresponsibilityfor anyerrorsoromissionsthatmaybemade.Thepublishermakesnowarranty,expressorimplied,with respecttothematerialcontainedherein. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Contents PartI IntroductoryMaterial 1 IntroductiontotheHandbook. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. 3 BruceEdmondsandRuthMeyer 2 HistoricalIntroduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 KlausG.Troitzsch 3 TypesofSimulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 PaulDavidssonandHarkoVerhagen PartII Methodology 4 InformalApproachestoDevelopingSimulationModels. . . . . . . . . 39 EmmaNorling,BruceEdmonds,andRuthMeyer 5 AFormalApproachtoBuildingCompositionalAgent-Based Simulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 CatholijnM.JonkerandJanTreur 6 CheckingSimulations:DetectingandAvoidingErrors andArtefacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Jose´M.Gala´n,LuisR.Izquierdo,SegismundoS.Izquierdo,Jose´I.Santos, RicardodelOlmo,andAdolfoLo´pez-Paredes 7 DocumentingSocialSimulationModels:TheODDProtocol asaStandard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 VolkerGrimm,GaryPolhill,andJuliaTouza 8 ValidatingSimulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 NunoDavid 9 UnderstandingSimulationResults. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 AndrewEvans,AlisonHeppenstall,andMarkBirkin v vi Contents 10 ParticipatoryApproaches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 OlivierBarreteau,PieterBots,KatherineDaniell,MichelEtienne, PascalPerez,Ce´cileBarnaud,DidierBazile,NicolasBecu, Jean-ChristopheCastella,William’sDare´,andGuyTrebuil 11 CombiningMathematicalandSimulationApproachesto UnderstandtheDynamicsofComputerModels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 LuisR.Izquierdo,SegismundoS.Izquierdo,Jose´ M.Gala´n, andJose´ I.Santos 12 InterpretingandUnderstandingSimulations:ThePhilosophy ofSocialSimulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 R.KeithSawyer PartIII Mechanisms 13 Utility,Games,andNarratives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 GuidoFioretti 14 SocialConstraint. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. 335 MartinNeumann 15 Reputation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 FrancescaGiardini,RosariaConte,andMarioPaolucci 16 SocialNetworksandSpatialDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 Fre´de´ricAmblardandWalterQuattrociocchi 17 Learning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431 MichaelW.Macy,StephenBenard,andAndreasFlache 18 EvolutionaryMechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 EdmundChattoe-BrownandBruceEdmonds PartIV Applications 19 Agent-BasedModellingandSimulationAppliedto EnvironmentalManagement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 ChristopheLePage,DidierBazile,NicolasBecu,PierreBommel, Franc¸oisBousquet,MichelEtienne,RaphaelMathevet, Ve´roniqueSouche`re,GuyTre´buil,andJacquesWeber 20 AssessingOrganisationalDesign. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541 VirginiaDignum 21 DistributedComputerSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563 DavidHales Contents vii 22 SimulatingComplexityofAnimalSocialBehaviour. . . . . . . . . . . . 581 CharlotteHemelrijk 23 Agent-BasedSimulationasaUsefulToolfortheStudy ofMarkets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617 JulietteRouchier 24 MovementofPeopleandGoods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 651 LindaRamstedt,JohannaTo¨rnquistKrasemann,andPaulDavidsson 25 ModelingPowerandAuthority:AnEmergentistViewfrom Afghanistan. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 667 ArmandoGellerandScottMoss 26 HumanSocieties:UnderstandingObservedSocialPhenomena. .. . 709 BruceEdmonds,PabloLucas,JulietteRouchier,andRichardTaylor Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 749 Part I Introductory Material Chapter 1 Introduction to the Handbook BruceEdmondsandRuthMeyer WhyReadThisChapter? Tounderstandsomeofthebackgroundandmotivation forthehandbookandhowitisstructured. 1.1 Simulating Social Complexity As the title indicates, this book is about Simulating Social Complexity. Each of thesethreewordsisimportant. Simulating–thefocushereisonindividual-oragent-basedcomputationalsimulation ratherthananalyticornaturallanguageapproaches(althoughthesecanbeinvolved). In other words, this book deals with computer simulations where the individual elementsofthesocialsystemarerepresentedasseparateelementsofthesimulation model. It does not cover models where the whole population of interacting individuals is collapsed into a single set of variables. Also, it does not deal with purelyqualitativeapproachesofdiscussingandunderstandingsocialphenomena,but justthosethattrytoincreasetheirunderstandingviatheconstructionandtestingof simulationmodels. Social–theelementsunderstudyhavetobeusefullyinterpretableasinteracting elementsofasociety.Thefocuswillbeonhumansociety,butcanbeextended to include social animals or artificial agents where such work enhances our understanding of human society. Thus this book does not deal with models of singleindividualsorwherethetargetsystemisdealtwithasifitwereasingle entity.Ratheritisthedifferingstatesoftheindividualsandtheirinteractionsthat arethefocushere. B.Edmonds(*)(cid:129)R.Meyer ManchesterMetropolitanUniversity,CentreforPolicyModelling,ManchesterMetropolitan UniversityBusinessSchool,AllSaintsCampus,OxfordRoad,M156BHManchester,UK e-mail:[email protected];[email protected] B.EdmondsandR.Meyer(eds.),SimulatingSocialComplexity, 3 UnderstandingComplexSystems,DOI10.1007/978-3-540-93813-2_1, #Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2013
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