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Francesco Sylos Labini Science Economic and the Crisis Impact on Science, Lessons from Science Science and the Economic Crisis Francesco Sylos Labini Science and the Economic Crisis Impact on Science, Lessons from Science 123 Francesco Sylos Labini EnricoFermi Center andInstitute for ComplexSystems (National Research Council) Rome Italy ISBN978-3-319-29527-5 ISBN978-3-319-29528-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-29528-2 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016931354 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2016 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor foranyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerland Foreword The world is in the grip of the biggest economic crisis for more than 80 years. Nearly all nations are affected, though, of course, some are more affected than others. The key political question of today is: “What should be done to bring this crisis to an end?” In this book, Francesco Sylos Labini, who is a researcher in physics, takes an unusual approach to the crisis by relating it to the situation in science. How is this economiccrisisrelatedtoscientificresearch?Alittlereflectionshowsthatthislink is in fact very close. The neoliberal economic policies, which have dominated for thepast30orsoyears,arebasedonneoclassicaleconomics.Thislooksverymuch like a science such as physics, since it consists of equations and mathematical models. But is it really scientific? Should we trust the predictions of neoclassical economicsinthesamewaythatwetrustthoseofphysics?SylosLabinigivesgood reasonsforthinkingthatweshouldnot,andthatneoclassicaleconomicsismoreof a pseudo-science, like astrology, than a genuine science, like astronomy. Sylos Labini begins his argument by analyzing predictions in the natural sci- ences.Insomeareas,suchasthefuturepositionsofplanetsandcomets,predictions can be made with extraordinary accuracy; but this is not always the case. Predictions of tomorrows’ weather, or of when volcanic eruptions or earthquakes will occur, are much less certain. Let us consider meteorology. Here the laws governingthebehavioroftheatmospherearepreciseandwellestablished,butthere is a difficulty—the so-called butterfly effect. A small disturbance, such a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil, can be magnified and cause a hurricane in the United States. This leads to what is called chaotic behavior—a subject which has been studied mathematically, and in which Sylos Labini is an expert. Despite the diffi- culties caused by chaos, weather forecasting can be, and has been, improved by better collection of observations, better mathematical models, and the use of more powerful computers. If we turn from this to neoclassical economics, we see that the situation is completely different. As Sylos Labini points out, we do not know the laws of economicdevelopmentinthewaythatweknowthelawsgoverningtheatmosphere. v vi Foreword Thebutterflyeffectseemstoapplytotheworldeconomy,however,sincethefailure of a few sub-prime mortgages in a region of the United States led to a worldwide economicrecession.Yetneoclassicaleconomiststakenoaccountofthemathematics of chaos whose use is now standard in the natural sciences. Although weather forecasts can be trusted up to a point, little credence should be given to those of neoclassicaleconomics,andyet,asSylosLabinipointsout,neoclassicaleconomics hasnonethelessachievedaculturalhegemony.Inordertoexplainhowthishasbeen possible,SylosLabiniturnstoaconsiderationoftheorganizationofresearch,and, more generally, ofthe universities. Whatisinterestingisthatneoliberal policieshavethesamegeneraleffectinthe universitiesastheydoinsocietyasawhole.Insociety,theirtendencyhasbeento concentratewealthinfewerandfewerhands.Therichest1%hasgrownricherand richerattheexpensenotonlyoftheworkingclassbutalsooftheoldmiddleclass. Similarly, in the university sector, more and more funding is going to a few privileged universities and their researchers at the expense of the others. This is justified on the grounds that these universities and researchers are better than the others, so that it more efficient to concentrate funding on them. To find out which universities and researchers are better, regular research assessments are conducted, and they are used to guide the allocation of funds. But how accurate are these research assessments in picking out the researchers who are better from those who arenotsogood?SylosLabinigivesusgoodreasonsforthinkingthattheseresearch assessments, far from being accurate, are highly misleading. One striking result, which he mentions, is known as the Queen’s question. Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008 and started the great recession. By chance, Queen Elizabeth visited the London School of Economics to inaugurate a newbuildinginNovember2008,andheresheaskedherfamousquestion:“whydid no one see the economic crisis coming?” Of course the neoclassical economists oftheLondonSchoolofEconomicsnotonlydidnotforeseethecrisis,buttheyhad been advocating the very neoliberal policies that led to it. In December 2008, the UK’sresearchassessment exercisereported its results. Theseshowed that the field that had obtained the highest score of any in the country was none other than economics, which in the UK had by then become almost exclusively neoclassical economics. If the results of this assessment were to be believed, then economics was the field in which the best research in the UK had been done in the preceding 5 years—better than the research in physics, computer science, or the biomedical sciences.Obviously this shows that somethinghadgone very wrong with research assessment. SylosLabiniisanactivememberofReturnonAcademicResearch(Roars.it),an organization that is active in opposing the attempts of the Italian government to introduce aresearch organizationmodeled ontheUKintoItaly.Hisbookexplains thefailingsofsuchresearchassessmentsystems.Oneinterestingargumentheuses concernssomeofthemajordiscoveriesinphysicsandmathematicsmadeinthelast few decades. In physics he discusses high-temperature superconductivity, the scanningtunnelingmicroscope,andgraphene;andinmathematicsYitang Zhang’s proof of an important theorem in prime number theory. Unknown individuals, Foreword vii working in low-rated institutions, made all these discoveries that is to say, researchers who would have had their research funding cut by the rigorous implementation of research assessment exercises. The point is that scientific dis- covery is unpredictable, and one has a better chance of increasing important dis- coveries by spreading funds more evenly rather than by concentrating them in the hands of a small elite. In the final part of his book, Sylos Labini points out that the same neoliberal push towards inequality is to be found in throughout Europe. Research funds are being concentrated more in Northern Europe and less in Southern Europe. Sylos Labiniarguesnotonlyforamoreegalitariandistributionofresearchfunds,butalso for an overall increase in the funding for research and development. This is the strategy that will produce innovations capable of revitalizing the economies and putting them once more on a growth path. Sylos Labini makes a very strong case forhispointofview.Letushopethatanewgenerationofpoliticianswillbewilling andabletoimplementhisideas.Meantimehisbookistobestronglyrecommended to anyone seeking to understand the current crisis and its ramifications. July 2015 Donald Gillies Emeritus Professor of Philosophy of Science and Mathematics University College London Acknowledgments IamgratefultoAngeloVulpiani,oneofmymentorsinphysics.Inadditiontoour countlessinterestingdiscussionsontheroleofforecastsinscience,Ithankhimfor painstakinglycommentingonapreliminaryversionofthiswork.Iamalsothankful for his unwavering encouragement. Several friends and colleagues, who have read early versions of this work, or specific chapters, have given me valuable advice and suggestions. In particular IthankLaviniaAzzone,AntonioBanfi,DavidBenhaiem,AndreaCavagna,Guido Chiarotti, Francesco Coniglione, Stefano Demichelis, Luca Enriques, Donald Gillies, Grazia Ietto-Gillies, Michael Joyce, Martin Lopez Corredoira, Laura Margottini, Enzo Marinari, Maurizio Paglia, Daniela Palma, Roberto Petrini, Francesco Sinopoli, Giorgio Sirilli, Fabio Speranza, and Marco Viola. Many ideas presented in this work come from the blog Return On Academic ReSearch (Roars.it), which has given me a privileged observation point on several issues. I am therefore grateful to all its editors for our extensive daily discussions ever since we embarked on the Roars.it adventure in 2011, and for sharing my commitmenttobebotharesearcherandacitizen.Eachoneofthemhastaughtmea lot and has influenced my ideas on some of the issues raised in this work, espe- cially, but not exclusively, with regard to research and higher education issues. My Roars friends and colleagues include the following: Alberto Baccini, Antonio Banfi, Michele Dantini, Francesco Coniglione, Giuseppe de Nicolao, Paola Galimberti, Daniela Palma, Mario Ricciardi, Vito Velluzzi and Marco Viola. I thank Luciano Pietronero, Andrea Gabrielli, and Guido Chiarotti for our numerous discussions on many topics touched upon in this work, and specifically for their collaboration in the study on the diversification of national research sys- tems, as well as for sharing with me their results on “economic complexity” that I will discuss in Chaps. 2 and 4. I had fruitful discussions with Giulio Cimini and MatthieuCristelliontheuseofbigdataineconomics.IalsothankMauroGallegati forpointingoutseveralreferencesthathaveallowedmetodeepenvariousconcepts regarding neoclassical economics. ix

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