Scenario analysis for the risk of pine shoot beetle outbreaks resulting from the movement of pine logs from regulated areas PDF
Preview Scenario analysis for the risk of pine shoot beetle outbreaks resulting from the movement of pine logs from regulated areas
Historic, Archive Document Do not assume content reflects current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. DRAFT Scenario Analysis for the Risk of Pine Shoot Beetle Outbreaks Resulting from the Movement of Pine Logs from Regulated Areas U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service December 1994 Contents: Background Pages 1-4 Pestand Objective PestDistribution Backgroundonthe Situation BackgroundonthePest AssessmentMethodology Figure Diagram ofCombined Scenarios 1: Probability andFrequencyEstimates Pages 5-15 IntroductiontoProbabilityData AssumptionsandDefinitionofSeasons General Information Frequencyand ScenarioProbability Summary Discussion Analysis Pages 16-27 Table 1: CombinedProbabilityEstimates - All Scenarios & D Scenarios A, B, C, Individual ScenarioswithTablesofEstimates and Point Products Probability DistributionCurves Table2: FrequencyofOutbreaksby Season and YearsperOutbreak Table 3: PercentRiskby Scenarioand Season Figure 2: ComparativeRiskBasedonMode Values Table4: Sub-scenarioRankingby RiskBasedonMode Values RiskManagement Pages 29-32 MitigationDiscussion Listingof Potential RiskManagement Recommendations i Table5: Potential Treatment Measures Table6: Mitigation Applications Appendix Pages33-34 I. ReferencesandEvidence II. Assessors andExperts I Scenario Analysis for the Risk of Pine Shoot Beetle Outbreaks Resulting from the Movement of Pine Logs from Regulated Areas Pest: Tomicus =Blastophagus piniperda (L.) ( ) Coleoptera: Scolytidae (Bark Beetles) Common Name: Pine Shoot Beetle (PSB) Objective: A quantitative characterization ofthe risks associated with the movement ofpine logs from regulated areas and to identify the best combination ofavailable mitigation measures that effectively reduce the risk ofartificial spread to acceptable levels while also relieving the regulatory burden on the logging industry as much as reasonably possible. The product ofthis effort will provide the basis for changes in PPQ domestic quarantine regulations. Pest Distribution: Europe, Asia, and the Great Lakes region ofthe United States Background on the Situation: PSB was discovered near Cleveland, Ohio in July 1992. It is now known to be established in six States: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It is expected to continue spreading naturally. Infested counties are currently regulated under Federal and State quarantines. At present, logs of pine trees can be transported from infested counties to non-infested areas from July 1 through October 31 with no restriction (most beetles are assumed to be in the shoots during this time - normal logging practice would remove all branches from the logs before moving to the sawmill). From November 1 through June 30, logs must be fumigated or processed at the destination within 24 hours ofharvest (beetles are overwintering at the base ofthe tree during this time - the assumption is that beetles are destroyed during debarkin^processing at the sawmill). Early in 1994, the Michigan Dept, ofAgriculture (MDA) proposed modifications to the current regulatory regime. PPQ rejected the proposal, resulting in a continuing discourse with MDA, PPQ, and the Forest Service about technical aspects ofthe proposal, options, and risk. This document has been developed by PPQ to characterize the risks as the basis for decisionmaking associated with a regulatory proposal for changes in the existing regulations. Scenario analysis has been offered as a methodology that could be used to evaluate the variables contributing to the pest risk and to identify the options to mitigate the risk. , I
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