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OCHA POLICY AND STUDIES SERIES SAVING LIVES TODAY AND TOMORROW MANAGING THE RISK OF HUMANITARIAN CRISES OCHA OCHA POLICY AND STUDIES SERIES SAVING LIVES TODAY AND TOMORROW MANAGING THE RISK OF HUMANITARIAN CRISES OCHA ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Research for this report was undertaken for Southern Africa) and Dr. Ailsa Holloway jointly by the UN Offce for the Coordination (Stellenbosch University) for their permission of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and DARA. to integrate information and fndings from Humanitarian Trends in Southern Africa: Managing Editor: Andrew Thow Challenges and Opportunities into this study. Research and drafting team: Fernando Espada, Marybeth Redheffer, Daniela Finally, we thank those experts who devoted Ruegenberg, Andrea Noyes, Rodolpho their time to reviewing and discussing Valente, Nathalie Guillaume the study, including: Sandra Aviles, Rob Editor: Mark Turner Bailey, Rudi Coninx, Steve Darvill, François Copy Editor: Nina Doyle Grünewald, Nick Harvey, John Harding, Design and layout: wearebold.es, Debbie Hillier, Yves Horent, Daniel Kull, Christina Samson Robert Piper and Rachel Scott. This report benefted from the feedback Photo credits: Page 16 – OCHA / Zarina of our advisory group members: Dulce Nurmukhambetova, Page 32 – OCHA / David Chilundo, Ailsa Holloway, Randolph Kent, Ohana, Page 46 – FAO, Page 72 – OCHA. Pamela Komujuni, Toby Lanzer, Emanuel © United Nations 2014. This publication Tachie Obeng, Eva von Oelreich, Marianna enjoys copyright under Protocol 2 of the Olinger, Kevin Savage, Hansjoerg Strohmeyer Universal Copyright Convention. No portion and Misikir Tilahun. Special thanks are due of this publication may be reproduced for to the Chair of the advisory group, Sir John sale or mass publication without express and Holmes, for his commitment and guidance. written consent. OCHA and DARA thank the hundreds This report was made possible by funding of people who kindly shared their views from Australia and Germany. and experience for this report, including OCHA and DARA staff for their valuable Produced by: OCHA Policy Analysis and support, comments and suggestions. Thanks Innovation Section, Policy Development and especially to OCHA staff in case-study Studies Branch countries (Burkina Faso, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan Kirsten Gelsdorf, Chief, Policy Analysis and and Tajikistan) and in regional offces, as their Innovation Section support, comments and suggestions were Hansjoerg Strohmeyer, Chief, Policy instrumental in the success of feld research. Development and Studies Branch For more information, please contact: Thanks also to the Southern Africa Regional E-mail: TAbLE OF CONTENTS MESSAGES FROM THE ADVISORY GROUP 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 INTRODUCTION 8 Chapter 1: RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES 17 Global challenges and the changing risk landscape 18 From global risk to local crisis 20 Key concepts 24 Perspectives on risk 25 A multifaceted response to multidimensional crises 26 Can the humanitarian system adapt? 27 Chapter 2: WHY RISK MATTERS TO HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 33 Why manage crisis risk? 34 How risk is managed 34 Different contexts, different risks 36 Whose responsibility is it? 38 The role of humanitarian organizations in managing crisis risk 38 What stands in the way of managing crisis risk? 40 Translating support into action 45 Chapter 3 MANAGING CRISIS RISK MORE EFFECTIVELY 47 Linking Government, development and humanitarian efforts 48 Analysis, planning and programming 53 Funding a crisis-risk management approach 60 Leadership and advocacy 69 Chapter 4 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 73 Make preventing future humanitarian crises a priority 76 Create new partnerships and incentives 76 Work differently and systematically address risk 77 Dedicate resources today to save lives tomorrow 77 REFERENCES 78 11 MESSAGES FROM THE ADVISORY GROUP The sad fact is that not only are humanitarian Although it is impossible to avert all disasters, needs rising, as the rising world population measures can and must be taken to alleviate faces increased risks from climate change, suffering before it happens. This study makes environmental degradation and the the case for a paradigm shift in the way we consequences of confict, but anyone in the approach responses to humanitarian crises. business also knows we need to do much While response is still critical, much has to more to reduce the impact of disasters be done to boost crisis prevention. And the before they happen, and to build local task does not solely rest with humanitarian capacity. This report is another wake-up organizations. This is a study that should call to all concerned—humanitarian and remain on the desk of all concerned with development agencies, donors and affected saving lives. Governments alike—to take our collective Misikir Tilahun, Head of Programmes, Africa heads out of the sand, and apply more of our Humanitarian Action minds and our resources in these directions. There should be no more excuses. John Holmes, former UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, Chair of the International Rescue International disaster response cannot keep Committee – UK, and author of “The Politics of pace with burgeoning global challenges. Humanity” (Head of Zeus, 2013) Preventing catastrophes is possible, but this requires a new way of thinking and acting. A timely, valid and indispensable piece of Development and humanitarian actors, from research, reminding us that response alone local to global, need to reorient the way is unsustainable, and that collective early they operate to systematically analyse and action saves not only lives, but increases manage risk. This study provides a compelling development opportunities. We can heed call for change. It also provides timely the recommendations today, or wait for recommendations as the world looks towards hazards to unceasingly challenge us, and the post-2015 framework for development for tomorrow’s generation to judge us as a and disaster risk reduction, alongside the generation that could have done more but 2016 World Humanitarian Summit. chose to do less. Kevin Savage, Humanitarian Research Coordinator, Pamela Komujuni, Senior Disaster Management World Vision International Offcer, Offce of the Prime Minister, Uganda 2 2 Around the world, we are seeing the Prevention is one of the most important increasing impacts of shocks on local strategies in saving lives. For that reason, communities, from natural hazards to food- Governments should invest to pursue this price rises and confict. We are also seeing objective. This is why the motto for disaster the profound benefts of supporting these management in Mozambique is, “It’s better communities to reduce and manage risks to prevent it than to fx it.” themselves, for example through community Dulce Fernanda M. Cabral Chilundo, General early warning and preparedness. Affected Director, National Institute for Information Technology and Communication, Ministry of people don’t see the institutional divides Science and Technology, Mozambique between humanitarian and development aid. They only know whether the support they get is relevant and useful and helps them Implementing a risk-management approach to be independent. This report can help us to humanitarian crises requires signifcant make sure it is. changes: better collaboration between Eva von Oelreich, President, Swedish Red Cross humanitarian and development communities; better sharing of risk analysis; integrated planning and programming; joined-up Disasters are not aberrant phenomena, but resource mobilization over fve- to 10-year rather refections of the ways people live time frames. Risk management requires their normal lives, and the ways societies sustained focus and investment and is a prioritize and allocate resources. This study marathon, not a sprint. has more than sustained this point with Hansjoerg Strohmeyer, Chief, Policy Development practical insights and strategic perspectives. and Studies Branch, OCHA Randolph Kent, Humanitarian Futures Programme, King’s College London This report brings together compelling evidence that humanitarian crises are not unexpected events, but the result of processes that develop throughout time As humanitarians it is vital to engage in and can have their impacts dramatically political processes that shape the focus of decreased, if not fully prevented. To put governments, as well as the development risk at the core of the aid is to embrace the agenda and the engagement of the private knowledge and experience gained over sector, if we are to move forward on the several decades of practice. agenda of prevention and not only address symptoms or focus on humanitarian response. Marianna Olinger, PhD in Urban and Regional Planning, Brazil Toby Lanzer, United Nations Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator in South Sudan 33 ExECUTIVE SUMMARY The number of people affected by Crisis-risk management needs to be humanitarian crises has almost doubled embedded in the humanitarian aid system. over the past decade and is expected This includes systematically identifying risks, to keep rising. In early 2014, international reducing their impact and coping with the aid organizations aimed to assist 52 million residual effects. Currently, action following people in crisis, and millions more people the warning signs of crises is often late or sought help from their communities, local insuffcient, and funding is too focused on organizations and Governments. The cost of response. Long-term aid is not helping the international humanitarian aid has more than most vulnerable people to build resilience. trebled in the last 10 years, and responders Every humanitarian crisis is different, but a are being asked to do more, at a greater cost, risk-management approach can and should than ever before. be applied universally. It should go hand in hand with responding to need. Global challenges—such as climate change, population growth, food- and energy-price Humanitarian organizations cannot do volatility, water scarcity and environmental this alone. Preventing and mitigating crises degradation—are increasing risks for requires the commitment of Governments, vulnerable people. They are eroding development organizations and many others. people’s ability to cope with shocks, making When Governments take the lead, they save crises more protracted and recurrent, and more lives, avert economic losses and foster undermining sustainable development. sustainable development. Government These trends have become as likely to cause leadership encourages humanitarian and humanitarian crises as disasters and conficts. development organizations to work more effectively together and multiplies their impact. A shift towards a more anticipatory and preventative approach to humanitarian Humanitarian and development crises is needed. Most crises can be predicted organizations need to transcend the and, while they cannot always be prevented, institutional divide that separates them. the suffering they cause can often be greatly This divide inhibits programmes that can help reduced. But humanitarian aid today is people manage risk, such as preparedness overwhelmingly focused on responding after and livelihoods support. They need to agree crises occur. Governments and their partners common risk-management and resilience have failed substantially to reduce risks to the objectives, and to achieve them through joint world’s most vulnerable people. It is time for a analysis, planning, programming and funding. fundamental change in approach. 4 4 National and local capacity is critical Not enough funding goes to risk- to successful risk management. management activities. Prevention-and- Humanitarian organizations already work preparedness funding comprised less with Governments to manage crisis risk, than 0.5 per cent of all international aid but their role is rarely systematic and their over the past 20 years, and most came services are diffcult to access outside crises, from humanitarian budgets. Assistance to which is when everyone is focused on prevent crises rarely goes to the people response. Governments and humanitarian and countries most at risk. New funding organizations need to build a better-defned, mechanisms are not required, but funding less-politicized and longer-term relationship. based on objective and shared assessment of crisis risk is essential. Insurance and other There needs to be better analysis of the risk-transfer tools offer opportunities to risks that lead to crises and more effective better manage crisis risk. systems to respond when risks are identifed. This can include more sophisticated There is insuffcient leadership in risk models and triggers, as well as forums humanitarian organizations to improve to share analysis and address risks. Joint risk management. Aid agencies need analysis and planning between humanitarian to honestly examine their organizational and development organizations are critical. structures , incentives, processes and culture. The timing of humanitarian and development Senior leaders need to champion and be planning also needs to be aligned. accountable for managing crisis risk, and concerted advocacy is needed to bring it to There is insuffcient assistance for people the attention of decision makers. The 2016 to prevent and mitigate crises and increase World Humanitarian Summit and post- resilience. The majority of humanitarian aid 2015 development agenda offer excellent comprises material assistance (food, water, opportunities to do this. shelter, health care), even when crisis has become the norm. Good programming This report presents a humanitarian helps people address risk in a holistic way, perspective on a challenge that goes far addressing current and future challenges. beyond the humanitarian sector. The shift Social-protection mechanisms, such as from cure to prevention is ultimately a cash-transfer programming, need to be political challenge that requires the will dramatically scaled up. and efforts of Governments, development organizations, civil society, private companies and many others. This report is intended to start a global dialogue, to change the way we do business. We cannot afford not to do so. 55 Summary of recommendations Make preventing Prioritize crisis-risk management. Increase and formalize future humanitarian Address risk through all functions; role in managing crisis provide livelihood options, basic risk, work more closely crises a priority services and social protection with Governments to build for the vulnerable; and set up capacity. Provide aid that systems for crisis anticipation, meets immediate needs and preparedness and response. addresses future risk. Support and develop joint Create new initiatives that contribute to crisis partnerships anticipation, prevention, mitigation and incentives and recovery and commit resources to those initiatives. Strengthen links between humanitarian and development teams through joint planning cells. Work differently Base planning on a common analysis and systematically of risk and align planning cycles address risk where possible. Support tools and processes to jointly analyse crisis Increase the capacity of risk, such as the InfoRM initiative. the RC/HC for risk analysis and strategic planning, for example through an expert roster system. Base crisis prevention and mitigation Dedicate resources funding decisions on risk analysis. today to save lives Ensure suffcient funds fow through existing mechanisms to support the tomorrow people and countries at highest risk of crises. 6 6 Ensure development aid targets Launch a global advocacy people and countries most at risk campaign on preventing from crises. Integrate crisis risk humanitarian crises, focused into national development plans, on the post-2015 development bilateral agreements. Specifcally agenda and World include it in the post-2015 Humanitarian Summit. Use development agenda. high-level ‘global champions’. Establish a national Appoint senior leaders with coordination forum to jointly responsibility for crisis-risk analyse and address risks, management, as well as monitor and share early Regional HCs to help align warning information, and risk-management work of develop triggers for action. Governments, international organizations and donors. Increase the length of planning cycle to three years in protracted crises. Increase use of programmatic approaches–including preparedness, livelihood support and cash-transfer programming–to help communities manage the risk of crises. Ensure existing funding Work with the private sector mechanisms are reviewed and and other relevant partners to adjusted to maximize their increase the use of risk-transfer contribution to managing crisis mechanisms, such as risk risk. Dedicate a higher proportion mutualization and micro-insurance. of core funding to activities that help manage crisis risk. Host governments Donor governments Humanitarian organizations Development organizations Note: This is an abridged version of the report’s recommendations. See Chapter 4 for the complete version. 77

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