Russian Economic Development Over Three Centuries: New Data And Inferences

463 Pages·2019·9.191 MB·English

by  Masaaki Kuboniwa, Yasushi Nakamura, Kazuhiro Kumo, Yoshisada Shida

Russian Economic
Development over
Three Centuries
New Data and Inferences
Edited by Masaaki Kuboniwa
Yasushi Nakamura · Kazuhiro Kumo
Yoshisada Shida
Russian Economic Development over Three
Centuries
“This collection and discussion of Russian economic statistics from the 1860s to
the 2010s will be extremely useful to students of Russia’s long-run economic
development and of comparative economic history. It is the result of an enormous
effort to cover the whole of the economy, assess the meaning of the data, utilise
the most accurate published and archival sources, adjust the data so that it covers
the territory of modern Russia, and to use standard international statistical con-
cepts and procedures.”
—Michael Ellman, Professor Emeritus, University of Amsterdam
“This book is an invaluable tool for any economist, historian or political scientist
interested in Russia and the Soviet Union. It provides geographically-adjusted data
on economic and demographic trends from the mid-19th century to current
times, and detailed information on production, finance, international trade, etc.
Moreover, the Editors have provided thoughtful analyses of the long-term devel-
opment of Russia over the past 300 years. The contributors to the volume are all
experts in the analysis of Russian data and their work is strengthened by the recent
opening of Russian archives.”
—Josef C. Brada, Professor Emeritus, Arizona State University, and President,
Society for the Study of Emerging Markets
“This volume presents Russia’s long-run gross domestic products (GDP) and its
components, consisted from population and employment, goods-and-services
production, foreign trade, government finance, rare monetary series,
internationally- compared, standardized GDP and its per-capita, and personal con-
sumption for the planned period. Adding to thorough examinations of past
researches, the authors have made intensive surveys for more than two decades of
documents preserved and newly released in the official Russian archives. Truly
indispensable and highly recommended for studies in comparative economic
history.”
—Konosuke Odaka, Professor Emeritus, Hitotsubashi University
Masaaki Kuboniwa
Yasushi Nakamura
Kazuhiro Kumo • Yoshisada Shida
Editors
Russian Economic
Development over
Three Centuries
New Data and Inferences
Editors
Masaaki Kuboniwa Yasushi Nakamura
Institute of Economic Research Graduate School of International
Hitotsubashi University Social Sciences
Kunitachi, Tokyo, Japan Yokohama National University
Yokohama, Japan
Kazuhiro Kumo
Institute of Economic Research Yoshisada Shida
Hitotsubashi University Research Division
Kunitachi, Tokyo, Japan The Economic Research Institute
for Northeast Asia
Niigata, Japan
ISBN 978-981-13-8428-8 ISBN 978-981-13-8429-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8429-5
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer
Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2019
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P
reface
Our project on the Russian long-term economic statistics started in 1995
as a part of the Asian Historical Statistics Project, including Russia as a
special volume in addition to 11 Asian countries and regions (Taiwan,
Vietnam, China, South Korea, Thailand, India, Philippines, Indonesia,
Turkey and Egypt, Japan, and the Central Asian region) that Institute of
Economic Research of Hitotsubashi University organized. It took over a
quarter of a century to publish this book. After the collapse of the Soviet
Union, access to Russian archival materials had been getting increasingly
easier. This influenced heavily our courses of research. The Russian archives
are undoubtedly huge sources of Russian historical statistics; we, however,
learned it is not easy to find relevant materials and information from the
vast ocean of archive materials.
This book is intended to provide the first comprehensive volume of
Russian long-term statistical time series in the literature which cover
dynamics of population, employment, agricultural and industrial outputs,
gross domestic products (GDP), state finance, monetary system, and for-
eign trade over the last three centuries. We recognize there are many
insufficiencies and unclear points in the long-term statistics we compiled.
Nevertheless, we hope this book serves as the foundation and the starting
point for future researchers on Russian economic history and statistics. In
addition to the tables and figures in this book, a comprehensive data set on
Russian historical statistics is available at a website of the Institute of
Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University: www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
histatdb/projects/view/2. Each chapter of the book explains in detail the
part of the data set relevant to the chapter.
v
vi PREFACE
The book concerns a unique country, Russia, which experienced two
revolutions and two world wars with territorial transformations; however,
all of us have been always looking at the economic development in Russia
on the one hand and that in Japan on the other hand. As Alexander
Gerschenkron classified Japan and Russia in “the late comers” to capital-
ism, Japan and Russia started their modernization and industrialization
around the same time. Russia started it after her defeat in the Crimean War
in 1856; Japan started it after the military power show of the American
black fleet came to Japan in 1853–1854. As the book discusses later, the
economic development in Japan and Russia was not very different in terms
of macroeconomic indicators until World War II. Then, the two econo-
mies followed the growth paths almost in a mirror image. To what extent
were Japan and Russia different in their economic development? What
accounts for the difference, the global factors or the factors specific to each
economy, the policy factors or the social, historical, and geographical fac-
tors difficult to be changed? This book little discusses these questions,
although we always have been asking ourselves about these questions. We,
therefore, hope that future researchers in the areas of comparative eco-
nomics, Russian and Japanese economic histories, and economic develop-
ment and growth would tackle those questions being based on this book.
During the long gestation period of this book, we have been continu-
ing to work on the issues relating to the topics assigned to each of the
authors. The following is a short list of the books we published during the
period: Kuboniwa, M. and Gavrilenkov, E., Development of Capitalism in
Russia: The Second Challenge, Maruzen, 1997; Kuboniwa, M., Structure
and Growth of the Russian Economy, Iwanami, 2011, in Japanese; Kumo,
K., Migration and Regional Development in the Soviet Union and Russia:
A Geographical Approach, Beck Publishers, 2003; Kumo, K., ed.,
Demography of Russia: From the Past to the Present, Palgrave Macmillan,
2016; Nakamura, Y., Monetary Policy in the Soviet Union, Palgrave
Macmillan, 2017; Suhara, M., Studies on the Soviet Industry, Ochaynomizu,
2015, in Japanese; Tabata, S., ed., Eurasia’s Regional Powers Compared -
China, India, Russia, Routledge, 2015; Tabata, S., ed., Dependent on Oil
and Gas: Russia’s Integration into the World Economy, Hokkaido University,
2006; and Uegaki, A., Russia under the Economic Globalization, Nihon
Hyoron, 2005, in Japanese.
We appreciate the continuous supports and the comments and criti-
cisms from the project leaders of Asian Historical Statistics, Kyoji Fukao,
Konosuke Odaka, and Osamu Saito. We also thank Prabir Bhattacharya,
PREFACE vii
Micael Ellman, Phillip Hanson, Paul Hare, Tsuyoshi Ishikawa, Iouri
Ivanov, Tatiana Khomenko, Byung-Yeon Kim, Iikka Korhonen, Irina
Masakova, Sadayoshi Ohtsu, Alexsei Ponomarenko, Aleksi Popov,
Vladimir Treml, Natalia Ustinova, Ilya Voskoboinikov, Stephen
Wheatcroft, and Andrei Yakovlev for taking part in various workshops and
conferences we organized and giving their comments. We also appreciate
the generous copyright arrangements by Toyo Keizai Shinposya for the
Japanese edition of the book and Palgrave Macmillan for the English edi-
tion of the book. This work was financially supported by the Japan Society
for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
(KAKENHI), Grant Numbers 07CE1001, JP15H01959, JP26245034,
and JP23330089.
Tokyo, Yokohama Masaaki Kuboniwa
Niigata, Japan Yasushi Nakamura
M arch 21, 2019 Kazuhiro Kumo
Yoshisada Shida
c
ontents
1 Introduction 1
Masaaki Kuboniwa and Kazuhiro Kumo
1.1 Purpose of the Book 1
1.2 Territorial Transformation 3
1.3 Structure of the Book 11
1.4 Analytical Examples Using the Results of the Book and
Related Data 17
1.5 Remaining Tasks 38
References 39
2 Characteristics and Development of State Statistics 43
Shinichiro Tabata
2.1 Introduction 43
2.2 State Statistics in the Russian Empire 44
2.3 State Statistics in the Soviet Union 47
2.4 State Statistics in the Russian Federation 53
References 56
3 Population 59
Kazuhiro Kumo
3.1 Introduction 59
3.2 P revious Research on Long-Term Russian Population
Dynamics and Statistics 61
ix
x CONTENTS
3.3 Russian Population Statistics 67
3.4 Processing of Russian Population Statistics 74
3.5 Results 80
3.6 Challenges Remaining 94
Appendix: Time Series of Alternative Estimates of the Total
Population of the Territory Covered by the Present Russian
Federation in the Imperial Era 98
References 100
4 Labor 105
Yoshisada Shida, Kazuhiro Kumo, and Yasushi Nakamura
4.1 Introduction 105
4.2 Historical Development of Labor Statistics 109
4.3 Basic Concepts in Labor Statistics 111
4.4 Long-Term Series of Labor Statistics 119
Appendix 131
References 131
5 Agriculture 133
Manabu Suhara
5.1 Introduction 133
5.2 Agricultural Statistics in Imperial Russia 134
5.3 Agriculture for the Soviet Union and the Russian
Republic 152
5.4 Agricultural Statistics of the Russian Republic 160
5.5 Agriculture and Agricultural Statistics in the Russian
Federation 175
Appendix 180
References 180
6 Industry 183
Manabu Suhara
6.1 Introduction 183
6.2 Industrial Statistics in the Russian Empire 184
6.3 Industrial Statistics in Soviet Russia 196
6.4 Industrial Statistics in the Russian Federation 211
Appendix 218
References 218
CONTENTS xi
7 Money and Finance 221
Yasushi Nakamura
7.1 Introduction 221
7.2 Russian Empire 225
7.3 Soviet Union 233
7.4 New Russia 243
Appendix 247
References 247
8 State Budget 251
Shinichiro Tabata and Tomoko Tabata
8.1 Introduction 251
8.2 Budget Statistics in the Russian Empire (1803–1914) 253
8.3 Budget Statistics in the Soviet Union (1918–1990) 262
8.4 B udget Statistics of the Russian Federation (1992–2015) 268
8.5 Preliminary Analyses 273
Appendix 287
References 288
9 Foreign Trade 291
Akira Uegaki
9.1 Introduction 291
9.2 Materials 291
9.3 Previous Research 292
9.4 Trade of Imperial Russia 293
9.5 Trade in the Soviet Period 295
9.6 Trade in the Russian Federation, 1992–2010 310
9.7 Conclusion 313
Appendix 313
References 314
10 Supplement: Soviet Foreign Trade Earnings Revisited 317
Masaaki Kuboniwa, Shinichiro Tabata, and Yasushi Nakamura
10.1 Introduction 317
10.2 Origin of Soviet Formula for Foreign Trade Earnings 319
10.3 Estimation of Foreign Trade Earnings in the Soviet
National Accounting 322