Robot Futures Robot Futures Illah Reza Nourbakhsh The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England © 2013 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, re- cording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. MIT Press books may be purchased at special quantity discounts for business or sales promotional use. For information, please email spe- [email protected] or write to Special Sales Department, The MIT Press, 55 Hayward Street, Cambridge, MA 02142. This book was set in Stone Sans and Stone Serif by the MIT Press. Printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Nourbakhsh, Illah Reza, 1970– Robot futures / Illah Reza Nourbakhsh. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-262-01862-3 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Robotics—Popular works. 2. Technological forecasting—Popular works. 1. Title TJ211.15.N68 2013 629.892—dc23 2012024598 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To Marti, Mitra and Nikou: you illuminate my life. Contents Acknowledgments ix Preface xiii 1 New Mediocracy 1 2 Robot Smog 19 3 Dehumanizing Robots 49 4 Attention Dilution Disorder 65 5 Brainspotting 85 6 Which Robot Future? A Way Forward 109 Glossary 121 References 125 Index 131 Acknowledgments Many people in my life have played critical roles in encourag- ing me to be inquisitive and providing me with the knowledge and habits of mind that shaped my intellectual identity. I am deeply grateful to all of them, although were it not for one par- ticular mentor, I would never have become a roboticist. Profes- sor Michael Genesereth at Stanford University introduced me to artificial intelligence and robotics, then encouraged me to join his research group. He convinced me to change my plans fol- lowing college, continue university studies, and enter the PhD program at Stanford University, and he taught me a form of aca- demic precision and sharpness in thought, and an appreciation of societal impact, that transformed me. My peers, friends, and family have read early versions of this book and provided invaluable guidance. They have shaped both the style and the essential content of this work: Mark Bauman, Nonie Heystek, Steve Ketchpel, Ben Louw, Tom Lauwers, Marti Louw, Matt Mason, Ofer Matan, Farhad Noorbakhsh, Alex Nor- bash, P. W. Singer, and Holly Yanco. Not only did Mark Bauman and P. W. Singer improve this book through their early reviews; together with Fatemeh Zarghami, my mother, they are my role x Acknowledgments models. They set a gold standard for how one educates, commu- nicates, and informs for positive social change. Jim DeWolf at the MIT Press has enthusiastically supported this endeavor, navigating the publication process with patience and transparency. His efforts, and the willingness of the Press to publish a work that is critical of technology and its ramifica- tions, speak volumes about their commitment to express strong ideas of all flavors to the public. The life of a robotics professor is mostly consumed with teach- ing, research, and fundraising—so much so that I cannot imag- ine normally finding the time and space to properly nurture a book. Carnegie Mellon University and the Robotics Institute gave me that time and space by granting a sabbatical, allowing me to leave my university responsibilities behind and travel to a distant place. On the other side of that voyage, the University of the West of England’s Science Communication Unit, led by Pro- fessor Alan Winfield, welcomed Marti Louw, my wife, and I with open arms into a dual sabbatical, providing an environment for research collaboration that was warm and stimulating during our stay in Bristol. Finally there is the one person who created the most important space for me to write daily, and who served as my most regular intellectual peer in evaluating and tuning the ideas in this book—Marti Louw. Her science communication expertise and her willingness to take on the societal impact of robotic technologies have made her the ideal collaborator. Throughout this book I describe some of my past projects. The first-person narrative can imply that I invented and built these new systems singlehandedly, but nothing could be further from the truth. The CREATE lab’s thirty members—researchers, edu- cators, administrators, and students—are the real drivers behind every one of these projects. These individuals have dedication,