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Rivers and Sustainable Development Rivers and Sustainable Development Alternative Approaches and Their Implications S. NAZRUL ISLAM 1 3 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2020 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Islam, S. Nazrul, author. Title: Rivers and sustainable development : alternative approaches and their implications/ S. Nazrul Islam. Description: New York : Oxford University Press, [2020] | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2019053615 (print) | LCCN 2019053616 (ebook) | ISBN 9780190079024 (hardback) | ISBN 9780190079048 (epub) | ISBN 9780190079031 (updf) | ISBN 9780190079055 (oso) Subjects: LCSH: Rivers. | Environmental policy. | Sustainable development. | Water resources development. Classification: LCC GB1203 .2 .I85 2020 (print) | LCC GB1203 .2 (ebook) | DDC 333 .91/62—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019053615 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019053616 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed by Integrated Books International, United States of America To River scholars and activists of all countries Figures 1.1 Classification of capital 4 1.2 Three dimensions of sustainable development 5 1.3 Environmental Kuznets Curve 9 1.4 Commercial approach to rivers 12 1.5 Ecological approach to rivers 13 2.1 Dams by type of construction 25 2.2 Dams in Europe 28 2.3 Dams in North America 30 2.4 Dams in Oceania 31 2.5 Dams in Asia 33 2.6 River Linking Project of India 37 2.7 Dams in Africa 42 2.8 Dams in South America 45 2.9 Distribution of single purpose dams 53 2.10 Distribution of multi-p urpose dams 54 3.1 “More water, more thirst” syndrome 64 4.1 Map of the Colorado River 83 4.2 Map of the Murray-D arling river system 86 4.3 Map of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers 88 4.4 Desiccation of the Aral Sea 90 4.5 Map of the Nile River 92 4.6 Map of the Indus River 96  5.1 India’s dams and barrages around Bangladesh 105  5.2 M ap of the Farakka Barrage diverting Ganges water away from Bangladesh 106  5.3 Decline in the Ganges flow in Bangladesh due to the Farakka Barrage 107  5.4 D ried up Ganges River in Bangladesh (under Hardinge Bridge) due to Farakka Barrage 107  5.5 D ried up Garai River, a major distributary of the Ganges River in Bangladesh 108 xviii List of Figures  5.6 M ap of Gajoldoba and other dams and barrages on Teesta River in India 111  5.7 D ecline in the flow of the Teesta River in Bangladesh due to India’s Gajoldoba Barrage 112  5.8 Dried up Teesta River in Bangladesh due to Gajoldoba Barrage 113  5.9 Map showing planned Tipaimukh Dam and Fulertal Barrage sites 114  5.10 Map of Bangladesh and northeastern India 117  5.11 Dams in Nepal constructed under joint venture with India 118  5.12 Dams in Bhutan—existing and proposed 119  5.13 Sharing of the Indus rivers by India and Pakistan 121  5.14 Dams reportedly planned by China on Upper Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo) River 123  5.15 China’s reported plan to divert water from the Upper Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo) River 123  6.1 Evolution of approaches to rivers 132  7.1a Trend break in world per capita GDP growth 143  7.1b Trend break in world population growth 143  7.1c Trend break in atmospheric carbon-d ioxide (CO2) concentration increase 144  7.1d Trend break in global temperature increase 144  8.1 Dams removed in the United States 164  8.2 Dams removed in Europe 167  8.3 Narmada River and the Sardar Sarovar Dam 170  8.4 Women protest against Sardar Sarovar Dam 172  9.1 “From lower to higher embankment!” vicious cycle 210  9.2 V icious cycle between demand for money and repair of embankments 211  9.3 Mississippi levee system 222  9.4 Flooding up to the roof: Great Mississippi Flood of 1993 225  9.5 Map of the Huang He River 229  9.6 Huang He River Delta 232  10.1 Restoration and preservation of the River Mur 257  11.1 Comparison of annual flows (cubic km) of rivers of Bengal and Dutch deltas 280 List of Figures xix  11.2 C omparison of seasonal variation of rainfall in Bangladesh and the Netherlands (average monthly rainfall in millimeters) 280  11.3 Map of Ajay River embankments 284  11.4 Map of Damodar Valley Project of India 286  11.5 Water projects proposed by IECO Master Plan for Bangladesh 294  11.6 Master Plan’s projected view of Bangladesh of 1985 296  11.7 Major cordon projects implemented in Bangladesh 302  11.8 Map of the Ganges-K obadak Project 304  11.9 Map of Brahmaputra Right Hand Embankment Project 308  11.10 Map of Pabna Irrigation and Rural Development Project 310  11.11 Map of Dhaka-N arayanganj- Demra Project 313  11.12 Hours of operation of DND pumps for irrigation and drainage 315  11.13 Waterlogging inside DND project 315  11.14 Map of Chandpur Irrigation Project 317  11.15 Map of Meghna-D honagoda Project 318  11.16 Map of exposed and non-e xposed parts of Bangladesh’s coastal zone 322  11.17 Map of coastal polders proposed by Master Plan 324  11.18 Local people cut polders to restore water flows 325  11.19 Map of Dhaka Integrated Flood Protection Project 329  12.1 Map of FAP 20 (Tangail)—A pilot project of compartmentalization 363  12.2 The idea of Tidal River Management 369  12.3 Application of the Tidal River Management idea 370  12.4 Map of Barisal Irrigation Project – Phase I 372  12.5 Map of Barisal Irrigation Project – Phase II 372  12.6 Map of Matamuhuri Rubber Dam project 374 Tables  2.1 Dams by type of construction 25  2.2 Dams constructed overseas with Chinese assistance 35  2.3 Countries having highest number of large and major dams 47  2.4 Distribution of large dams by continent 48  2.5 Tallest dams of the world 49  2.6 Dams with largest reservoir capacity 50  2.7 Dams with highest electricity generation capacity 51  2.8 Dams with largest irrigation command area 52  2.9 Classification of dams by their purpose 53  4.1 Sharing of the Colorado River (Law of the River) 85  5.1 Allocation of the Ganges water at Farakka as per 1996 treaty 109 9.1 Classification of cordons 205 9.2 Flood damage trend in the Brahmaputra Basin in India 219 11.1 Water projects proposed by the IECO Master Plan (1964) 291 12.1 Components of Flood Action Plan (Phase I) 359 12.2 C omparative flood indices inside and outside the PIRDP’s Talimnagar and Baulikhola sluice gates in 1995 and 1996 368 Preface Rivers are one of the most important components of our natural environment. For some countries, they are the most important component. The policies adopted toward rivers are therefore of crucial importance for the environment and development of a country. In 2015, the world community adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), several of which concern rivers directly. Some other SDGs depend on rivers indirectly. To achieve SDGs, it is therefore necessary to adopt correct poli- cies toward rivers. This book discusses alternative approaches to rivers and their implications for sustainable development. This discussion may help countries adopt river- related policies that are more conducive to sustainable development. The ideas presented in this book gelled over time. Coming from the Bengal Delta, formed by the three great rivers of the world (Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna), I became aware of the importance of rivers and river-r elated pol- icies early in my life. The flood of 1974—d uring which I did risky relief work among people marooned in remote villages— had a deep impact on my under- standing of the raw power of rivers and the limited effectiveness of frontal stands against this power. My understanding of river and irrigation related issues was broadened and deepened through my work on the Irrigation Study Project in the early eighties at the Agro- Economic Research (AER) section of Bangladesh’s Ministry of Agriculture. My views— emerging from the experience of the 1974 flood— were reinforced by Bangladesh’s Great Flood of 1988, which led to my article, “Let the Delta Be a Delta! An Essay in Dissent on the Flood Problem of Bangladesh” that drew considerable attention. After getting my PhD in economics from Harvard University in 1993, I worked for a while at the then Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID), where I conducted research into the general relationship between environmental quality and a country’s policies, showing that the latter plays an important role in determining the former. This finding agreed well with my earlier observations in the particular case of rivers. Bangladesh’s Great Flood of 1998 prompted me to refocus attention on river-r elated issues, viewing them from a policy perspective. In the process, I developed several important concepts helpful for conceptual- izing river policy issues. The most important among these are the Commercial approach to rivers and its opposite, the Ecological approach. Each of these has a frontal and a lateral version, applicable, generally speaking, to upper and lower reaches of rivers, respectively. Dams, barrages, and other cross- sectional interventions embody the frontal version of the Commercial approach. On the

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