Risks in Technological Systems

347 Pages·2010·19.128 MB·English

by  Per Jacobsson, Göran Grimvall, Åke J. Holmgren (auth.), Göran Grimvall, Åke J. Holmgren, Per Jacobsson, Torbjörn Thedéen (eds.)

Springer Series in Reliability Engineering
Series Editor

Professor Hoang Pham
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
96 Frelinghuysen Road
Piscataway, NJ 08854-8018
USA

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Göran Grimvall • Åke J. Holmgren
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Editors
Risks in Technological
Systems

123
Editors
Göran Grimvall, Prof. Dr. Per Jacobsson
KTH Royal Institute of Technology KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Department of Physics SE-100 44 Stockholm
Albanova Science Center Sweden
SE-106 91 Stockholm [email protected]
Sweden
[email protected]

Åke J. Holmgren, Dr. Torbjörn Thedéen, Prof. Dr.
The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency KTH Royal Institute of Technology
(MSB) SE-100 44 Stockholm
SE-651 81 Karlstad Sweden
Sweden [email protected]
[email protected]
ISSN 1614-7839
ISBN 978-1-84882-640-3 e-ISBN 978-1-84882-641-0
DOI 10.1007/978-1-84882-641-0

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Library of Congress Control Number: 2009928644

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Preface
The first edition of this book was published in 1998 by the Swedish Educational
BroadcastingCompany.Thebook,fourradiotapes,andsixTVprogramswerethe
framework of a Swedish Open University academic course. This Swedish edition
wasusedfrequentlyinengineeringeducationandincoursesforprofessionals,until
the book was sold out in 2002. In 2003 an updated and restructured Swedish
edition was published. It is now a course book in Swedish engineering education
and it is frequently used in the education of professionals in industrial risk
management.
The present English edition is based on the experience of using the two
previous editions in both university and professional environments. In addition,
many sections with references to specific Swedish circumstances have now been
replacedbyinternationaldataandoutlooks.
The book provides an introduction to basic technology risks. It also aims at
placing these risks in a wider interdisciplinary and global framework than is
customary, and seeks to show both their social importance and their intellectually
challenging character. Two of its main purposes are to stimulate critical reflection
on the issue of technology risks and to provide the conceptual tools necessary for
grasping them. Further, it seeks to serve the reader by clarifying key concepts,
outliningalternativeviews,andprovidingbothrichreferencesandexercisesforin-
depthstudies.
The editors, who have worked closely with the contributors, take an overall
responsibility for the content of the book, but the ultimate responsibility for each
chapter lies with its contributors. Finally, the editors want to thank Anthony
Bristowforhislinguisticcorrectionsandimprovements.
Economic support from Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation
Systems (VINNOVA) and The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) is gratefully
acknowledged.
Stockholm,September 2009
GöranGrimvall,ÅkeJ.Holmgren,PerJacobsson,andTorbjörnThedéen
Contents
1 Introduction:theGlobalRiskArena,TechnologicalSystemsand
ThisBook................................................................................................... 1
PerJacobsson,GöranGrimvall,ÅkeJ.Holmgren,andTorbjörnThedéen
1.1 TechnologicalRisk-drivingForces................................................... 1
1.2 TechnologyandThreeKindsofRisk............................................... 4
1.3 ThePhilosophyoftheBook.............................................................. 4
1.4 TechnologicalRiskswithWhichThisBookIsNotConcerned....... 5
1.5 TheReadership.................................................................................. 5
References.................................................................................................. 6
2 ReflectionsonRisksandTechnology..................................................... 7
LennartSjöbergandTorbjörnThedéen
2.1 RisksandTechnology....................................................................... 7
2.2 WhatIsaRisk?.................................................................................. 8
2.3 HistoryofRiskResearch................................................................... 9
2.4 WhatIsanAcceptableRisk? ............................................................ 10
2.5 Society’sReactiontoRisks............................................................... 12
2.6 RisksinthePublicDebate................................................................ 15
References.................................................................................................. 17
3 RisksinthePastandPresent.................................................................. 19
BirgittaOdén
3.1 Background ....................................................................................... 19
3.2 TheProblem...................................................................................... 20
3.3 TheHistoricalPerspective................................................................ 21
3.4 ChangingSociety.............................................................................. 21
3.5 AssessmentandPreventionofRisks................................................. 23
viii Contents
3.5.1 RisksinTraditionalSociety.................................................. 23
3.5.2 War........................................................................................ 24
3.5.3 HomicideandManslaughter................................................. 24
3.5.4 ContagiousDisease............................................................... 25
3.5.5 TransportandCommunication............................................. 26
3.5.6 Fire........................................................................................ 29
3.5.7 NaturalCatastrophes............................................................. 31
3.6 FatalAccidentsinthePastandthePresent....................................... 31
Acknowledgments...................................................................................... 33
References.................................................................................................. 33
4 TheDangerousSteamEngine................................................................. 35
JanHult
4.1 SafetyDevices................................................................................... 35
4.2 EarlyAccidentsintheHomeCountryoftheSteamEngine............. 37
4.3 SimultaneousDevelopmentintheUSA........................................... 38
4.4 NuclearEngineering–SteamTechnologyattheCrossroads......... 40
4.5 OtherExamplesofHistoricalSafetyMeasures................................ 42
4.5.1 DramaticAccidentsandSlowlyActingDangers................. 42
4.5.2 TheFalunMine..................................................................... 42
4.5.3 TheOtisElevator.................................................................. 42
4.5.4 SundrySafetyEquipment..................................................... 43
4.6 ConcludingRemarks......................................................................... 44
References.................................................................................................. 44
5 RisksandSafetyinBuildingStructures................................................ 47
HåkanSundquist
5.1 Introduction....................................................................................... 47
5.2 StructuresAreDegradedbyUseandbytheEnvironment............... 47
5.2.1 CommonlyOccurringLoads................................................ 47
5.2.2 TheEnvironment.................................................................. 48
5.2.3 Use........................................................................................ 48
5.2.4 AccidentalLoadsDuetoHumanActivity............................ 48
5.2.5 NatureReclaims.................................................................... 49
5.2.6 ViolentNaturalLoads........................................................... 49
5.2.7 TheRichterScaleforEarthquakesanEmpiricalScale..... 50
5.3 HowDoesaDesignEngineerThink?............................................... 51
5.4 HumanErrors.................................................................................... 54
5.4.1 WeAreAllHumans............................................................. 54
5.4.2 Quality.................................................................................. 54
5.4.3 Control.................................................................................. 54
5.5 LearningThroughAccidents............................................................. 55
5.5.1 TheLeaningTowerof Pisa.................................................. 55
5.5.2 TheGetåAccidenttheWorstTrainAccidentinSweden. 56
5.5.3 TheWorstBuildingAccidentDuetoaStructuralFaultin
Contents ix
ModernTimes– aCombinationofErrors............................ 57
5.5.4 WhatHasBeenLearnedAbouttheRiskofGas
Explosions?........................................................................... 59
5.5.5 LoadsDuetoTerrorism........................................................ 60
5.5.6 DoNotAlwaysTrustBeautifulComputerCalculations...... 61
5.5.7 BridgesWhichCollapse–LearningfromHistory............... 63
5.5.8 BridgesWhichShakeDown.TheEngineerMustAlsoLearn
fromHistory.......................................................................... 63
5.5.9 FatigueFailureandOtherPhenomenainMetallicMaterials 64
5.5.10 TheDesigner’sNightmare–theUnforeseenLoad.............. 65
5.6 SafetyRegulationsWithintheBuildingSector................................ 66
5.7 ConcludingRemarks......................................................................... 67
References.................................................................................................. 67
6 RisksintheConversionofEnergy.......................................................... 69
MonicaGullbergandTorbjörnThedéen
6.1 Introduction....................................................................................... 69
6.2 EnergyConcepts ............................................................................... 69
6.3 TheWorld’sEnergySupply.............................................................. 70
6.4 EnergySystemsandEnergyUse ...................................................... 71
6.5 ExamplesofNationalEnergyBalances............................................ 72
6.6 RisksinEnergySystems................................................................... 73
6.7 MethodsfortheEvaluationofRisksintheConversionofEnergy.. 74
6.8 ExamplesofRisksinEnergyConversion......................................... 74
6.8.1 DisasterRisks....................................................................... 74
6.8.2 RisksDuringNormalOperation........................................... 79
6.9 EvaluationandComparisonoftheRisksAssociatedwithEnergy
Conversion......................................................................................... 81
6.10 EnergyTodayandintheFuture........................................................ 82
References.................................................................................................. 83
7 ChemicalandPhysicalHealthRisks–Chemicals,Radiation,
andNoise................................................................................................... 85
UlfUlfvarson
7.1 Environment,Technology,andHealth............................................. 85
7.2 HowDoWeKnowWhatIsHarmful................................................ 86
7.2.1 TestsofFunctionsandOtherTests...................................... 87
7.2.2 Epidemiology........................................................................ 87
7.2.3 StatisticsofInjuries.............................................................. 88
7.2.4 DataonExposureandUptakeintheBody........................... 88
7.2.5 ExaminationofMaterialsandEquipment............................ 89
7.2.6 AssessmentofChemicalHealthRisksintheEnvironment. 89
7.3 ChemicalHealthRisksintheEnvironmentandintheWork
Environment...................................................................................... 89
7.3.1 UptakeofXenobioticsintheBody...................................... 90
x Contents
7.3.2 WhatAretheChemicalEffectsontheBody?...................... 90
7.3.3 ChemicalHealthRisksofCurrentInterest........................... 91
7.3.4 HealthEffectsofFineParticles............................................ 92
7.3.5 Nanoparticles........................................................................ 94
7.3.6 AirQualityStandardsofFineParticles................................ 95
7.3.7 DieselExhaust...................................................................... 96
7.3.8 IndoorEnvironmentCausingIll-health................................ 97
7.4 LimitValues...................................................................................... 98
7.5 PhysicalRiskFactors........................................................................ 99
7.5.1 Radiation............................................................................... 99
7.5.2 TheInfluenceofRadiationontheBody...............................101
7.5.3 TheChernobylAccident.......................................................102
7.5.4 Non-ionizingRadiation........................................................104
7.5.5 LimitValuesforRadiation...................................................106
7.6 Noise..................................................................................................106
7.6.1 InfluenceofNoiseonHealthandWell-being......................107
7.6.2 LimitValuesforNoise.........................................................108
7.7 EnvironmentandHealthinaHolisticPerspective...........................108
References..................................................................................................109
8 SafetyFactorsandExposureLimits.......................................................113
SvenOveHansson
8.1 NumericalDecisionTools.................................................................113
8.2 SafetyFactors....................................................................................113
8.3 WhatDoSafetyFactorsProtectAgainst?.........................................116
8.4 ExposureLimits................................................................................117
8.5 Dose–responseRelationships............................................................117
8.6 CollectiveDoseLimits......................................................................120
8.7 RemainingUncertainties...................................................................120
References..................................................................................................122
9 HowdangerousIsIttoTravel?...............................................................123
TorbjörnThedéen,EvertAndersson,LenaMårtensson,andOlleRutgersson
9.1 Introduction.......................................................................................123
9.2 RisksAssociated withtheRoadTrafficSystem...............................125
9.3 RisksAssociatedwithRailTravel....................................................127
9.3.1 HowSafeIsRailTravel?......................................................127
9.3.2 WhatArePossibleCausesofAccidents?.............................128
9.3.3 SafetyHasImproved............................................................128
9.4 RisksAssociatedwithAviation........................................................130
9.4.1 AircraftAccidents.................................................................130
9.4.2 SurprisedbyAutomationatGottröra...................................130
9.4.3 ÜberlingenMidairCollision.................................................133
9.4.4 WhatIsBeingDonetoImproveFlightSafety?...................133
9.5 RisksAssociatedwiththeSea...........................................................135
Contents xi
9.5.1 FromDaredevilEnterprisetoSafeCruisingTraffic............135
9.5.2 AccidentStatistics.................................................................136
9.5.3 AuthoritiesandInternationalOrganizations.........................137
9.5.4 RegulationfortheSafetyofShips........................................138
9.5.5 TheEstoniaAccidentandItsConsequencesfortheFuture
SafetyatSea..........................................................................139
9.5.6 AFewReflectionsonSurvivalEquipmentandAttitudes....140
References..................................................................................................141
10 IT–RisksandSecurity............................................................................143
ViivekeFåk
10.1 ComputersandITSystems...............................................................143
10.2 Computer-relatedRisks.....................................................................144
10.3 WhereDoWeFind ComputersandRelatedRisks?.........................147
10.4 InWhatWaysCanaComputerFail?...............................................149
10.5 WhyDoITSystemsTypicallyFail?.................................................150
10.6 DeliberateAttacksonITSystems.....................................................152
10.7 Counter-measuresAgainstIT-relatedRisksandFailures.................154
10.8 WhereAreWeHeading?..................................................................157
10.9 LiteratureandOtherSourcesofInformation....................................159
References..................................................................................................160
11 VulnerabilityofInfrastructures.............................................................161
TorbjörnThedéen
11.1 Introduction.......................................................................................161
11.2 CriticalInfrastructures.......................................................................161
11.3 ExamplesofInfrastructureCollapses...............................................163
11.4 TheVulnerabilityConcept................................................................165
11.5 TheNatureofInfrastructures............................................................166
11.6 ThreatsAgainstInfrastructures.........................................................168
11.7 ApproachestoVulnerabilityAnalysis..............................................168
11.8 PracticalExamples............................................................................169
11.8.1 VulnerabilityAnalysisofElectricPowerSystems...............169
11.8.2 VulnerabilityAnalysisofRoadTransportationSystems.....171
11.9 ControlandManagement..................................................................173
References..................................................................................................173
12 RiskManagement.....................................................................................175
TerjeAven
12.1 Introduction.......................................................................................175
12.2 OverviewofRiskManagement.........................................................175
12.3 RiskManagementandtheRiskAnalysisProcess ............................179
12.4 RiskManagementStrategies.............................................................181
12.5 RiskAcceptability(Tolerability)andRiskReduction(ALARP).....184