Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making PDF
Preview Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making
~ RISKM ODEL~ING FOR DETERMINING VALUE AND DECISION MAKING G L E N NK OLLER CHAPMAN & HALLlCRC Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationD ata Koller, Glenn R. (Glenn Robert), 1951- Risk modeling for determining value and decision making1 by Glenn R. Koller. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 1-58488-167-4 (alk. paper) 1. Risk assessment-Statistical methods. 2. Decision making-Statistical methods. 3. Value-Statistical methods. I. Title. HD61 .K633 2000 658.15'5-dc21 00-022387 This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use. Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. The consent of CRC Press LLC does not extend to copying for general distribution, for promotion, for creating new works, or for resale. Specific permission must be obtained in writing from CRC Press LLC for such copying. Direct all inquiries to CRC Press LLC, 2000 N.W. Corporate Blvd., Boca Raton, Florida 33431. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation, without intent to infringe. Visit the CRC Press Web site at www.crcpress.com 0 2000 by CRC Press LLC No claim to original U.S. Government works International Standard Book Number 1-58488-167-4 Library of Congress Card Number 00-022387 Printed in the United States of America 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Printed on acid-free paper About the Author Glenn R. Koller has responsibility for aspects of risk and uncertainty analysis, management, and training in BP Amoco (BPA) Corporation. He received his Ph.D. in geochemistryigeophysics from Syracuse University. Responsibilities of his current position include implementation of risk-assessment and risk-management technol- ogies and processes in BPA; development of statistical routines that comprise BPA's risk systems; keeping abreast of risk technology developed by vendors, other com- panies, and the National Laboratories; marketing risk technology; and performing technical and consulting services. Areas of responsibility include business and prod- uct development, environmental concerns, ranking and prioritization of projects and products, and other aspects of BPA's diversified business. Dr. Koller currently resides in Tulsa, Oklahoma. His email address is [email protected]. This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments I am grateful beyond measure to Mike A. Long and Phi1 Hammond for their con- tinued friendship, support, and dedication to our riskluncertainty enterprise. Their teaching, programming, and customer-relations skills are key elements of our suc- cessful effort. I acknowledge and thank Chris Mottershead, BP Amoco's Chief of Staff-Tech- nology, for his review of this volume and permission to publish. His understanding, advice, and guidance are truly appreciated. I thank Roger Rowe for his encouragement and friendship. I look forward to working with Roger on future projects. I express my deepest appreciation to my wife Karen, my daughters Stephanie and Kathy, and my son Matthew. Writing a book is an exceedingly time-consuming undertaking. Every hour spent on the book-writing effort is an hour not spent with the family. I truly appreciate their love, patience, and understanding. This page intentionally left blank To Karen, Stephanie, Kathy, and Matthew - my reasons for living. Thank you for your love, patience, and understanding. This page intentionally left blank Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Scope .......................................................................................................................... 1 Realism ...................................................................................................................... 2 Models. Validation. and Precision ............................................................................. 3 Value .......................................................................................................................... 4 EXAM PI! ES Chapter 1 Two Approaches to Solving Decision Trees . A Class-Action-Suit Example ........................................................................ 7 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 7 Building the Decision Tree ........................................................................................ 9 What Is the Question? ............................................................................................. 14 Interpretation of the Probabilistic-Branching Model .............................................. 19 So. So What? ........................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2 Terrorism Risk Models Relative and Absolute Risk .................................... 21 -- Terrorism Relative-Risk Model ............................................................................... 21 What Is the Question? ............................................................................................. 22 Building the Contributing-Factor Diagram for the Relative-Ranking Terrorist-Threat Risk Model ........................................................................... 23 Category Weights ..................................................................................................... 27 Relative-Risk Model Equations ............................................................................... 28 Relative-Risk Model Applied to Terrorist Organization #l .................................... 29 Relative-Risk Model Results from Evaluation of Terrorist Organization #l ......... 37 Relative-Risk Model Applied to Terrorist Organization #2 .................................... 39 Relative-Risk Model Results from Evaluation of Terrorist Organization #2 ......... 48 Comparison of the Two Terrorist Organizations ..................................................... 49 Building the Terrorism Absolute-Cost Risk Model ................................................ 53 Absolute-Cost Risk Model Equations ..................................................................... 55 Application of the Absolute-Cost Risk Model to Terrorist Organization #2 ......... 55 Absolute-Cost Risk Model Results for Evaluation of Terrorist Organization #2 ..............................................................................................6 1 So. So What? ......................................................................................................6..2.. .
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