Risk assessment: theory, methods, and applications

771 Pages·2020·3.9 MB·English

by  Haugen, Stein, Rausand, Marvin

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RiskAssessment
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WILEYSERIESINSTATISTICSINPRACTICE
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Risk Assessment
Theory,Methods,andApplications
SecondEdition
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MarvinRausand
SteinHaugen
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Thiseditionfirstpublished2020
©2020JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Names:Rausand,Marvin,author.|Haugen,Stein,author.
Title:Riskassessment:theory,methods,andapplications/Marvin
Rausand,SteinHaugen.
Description:Secondedition.|Hoboken,NJ:JohnWiley&Sons,2020.|
Series:Wileyseriesinstatisticsinpractice|Includes
bibliographicalreferencesandindex.
Identifiers:LCCN2019041379(print)|LCCN2019041380(ebook)|ISBN
9781119377238(hardback)|ISBN9781119377283(adobepdf)|ISBN
9781119377221(epub)
Subjects:LCSH:Technology–Riskassessment.|Riskassessment.
Classification:LCCT174.5.R372020(print)|LCCT174.5(ebook)|DDC
363.1/02–dc22
LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2019041379
LCebookrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2019041380
CoverDesign:Wiley
CoverImage:©SoloviovaLiudmyla/Shutterstock
Setin10/12ptWarnockProbySPiGlobal,Chennai,India
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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ToHella,GuroandIdunn,EmilandTiril
ToJorunn,Trine,Ingrid,KristianandBrage,NoraandAlma
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vii
Contents
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
AbouttheCompanionSite xix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 RiskinOurModernSociety 1
1.2 ImportantTrends 2
1.3 MajorAccidents 4
(cid:2) 1.4 HistoryofRiskAssessment 4 (cid:2)
1.5 ApplicationsofRiskAssessment 9
1.6 Objectives,Scope,andDelimitation 11
1.7 Problems 12
References 13
2 TheWordsofRiskAnalysis 15
2.1 Introduction 15
2.2 Risk 16
2.3 WhatCanGoWrong? 20
2.4 WhatistheLikelihood? 38
2.5 WhataretheConsequences? 44
2.6 AdditionalTerms 49
2.7 Problems 54
References 56
3 MainElementsofRiskAssessment 59
3.1 Introduction 59
3.2 RiskAssessmentProcess 60
3.3 RiskAssessmentReport 76
3.4 RiskAssessmentinSafetyLegislation 81
3.5 ValidityandQualityAspectsofaRiskAssessment 82
3.6 Problems 83
References 84
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viii Contents
4 StudyObjectandLimitations 87
4.1 Introduction 87
4.2 StudyObject 87
4.3 OperatingContext 91
4.4 SystemModelingandAnalysis 92
4.5 Complexity 95
4.6 Problems 97
References 98
5 RiskAcceptance 99
5.1 Introduction 99
5.2 RiskAcceptanceCriteria 99
5.3 ApproachestoEstablishingRiskAcceptanceCriteria 106
5.4 RiskAcceptanceCriteriaforOtherAssetsthanHumans 114
5.5 Closure 115
5.6 Problems 115
References 117
6 MeasuringRisk 121
6.1 Introduction 121
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6.2 RiskMetrics 121
6.3 MeasuringRisktoPeople 123
6.4 RiskMatrices 148
6.5 ReductioninLifeExpectancy 154
6.6 ChoiceandUseofRiskMetrics 156
6.7 RiskMetricsforOtherAssets 158
6.8 Problems 159
References 163
7 RiskManagement 167
7.1 Introduction 167
7.2 Scope,Context,andCriteria 170
7.3 RiskAssessment 170
7.4 RiskTreatment 171
7.5 CommunicationandConsultation 172
7.6 MonitoringandReview 173
7.7 RecordingandReporting 174
7.8 Stakeholders 175
7.9 RiskandDecision-Making 176
7.10 SafetyLegislation 179
7.11 Problems 180
References 180
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Contents ix
8 AccidentModels 183
8.1 Introduction 183
8.2 AccidentClassification 183
8.3 AccidentInvestigation 188
8.4 AccidentCausation 188
8.5 AccidentModels 190
8.6 EnergyandBarrierModels 193
8.7 SequentialAccidentModels 195
8.8 EpidemiologicalAccidentModels 201
8.9 EventCausationandSequencingModels 208
8.10 SystemicAccidentModels 213
8.11 CombiningAccidentModels 228
8.12 Problems 229
References 230
9 DataforRiskAnalysis 235
9.1 TypesofData 235
9.2 QualityandApplicabilityofData 238
9.3 DataSources 239
9.4 ExpertJudgment 250
9.5 DataDossier 254
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9.6 Problems 254
References 257
10 HazardIdentification 259
10.1 Introduction 259
10.2 ChecklistMethods 263
10.3 PreliminaryHazardAnalysis 266
10.4 JobSafetyAnalysis 278
10.5 FMECA 287
10.6 HAZOP 295
10.7 STPA 306
10.8 SWIFT 316
10.9 ComparingSemiquantitativeMethods 322
10.10 MasterLogicDiagram 322
10.11 ChangeAnalysis 324
10.12 HazardLog 327
10.13 Problems 331
References 335
11 CausalandFrequencyAnalysis 339
11.1 Introduction 339
11.2 CauseandEffectDiagramAnalysis 341
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x Contents
11.3 FaultTreeAnalysis 344
11.4 BayesianNetworks 370
11.5 MarkovMethods 384
11.6 Problems 396
References 400
12 DevelopmentofAccidentScenarios 401
12.1 Introduction 401
12.2 EventTreeAnalysis 402
12.3 EventSequenceDiagrams 426
12.4 Cause–ConsequenceAnalysis 426
12.5 HybridCausalLogic 428
12.6 EscalationProblems 429
12.7 ConsequenceModels 429
12.8 Problems 431
References 435
13 DependentFailuresandEvents 437
13.1 Introduction 437
13.2 DependentFailuresandEvents 437
13.3 DependencyinAccidentScenarios 439
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13.4 CascadingFailures 441
13.5 Common-CauseFailures 442
13.6 𝛽-FactorModel 452
13.7 BinomialFailureRateModel 456
13.8 MultipleGreekLetterModel 457
13.9 𝛼-FactorModel 459
13.10 Multiple𝛽-FactorModel 461
13.11 Problems 461
References 462
14 BarriersandBarrierAnalysis 465
14.1 Introduction 465
14.2 BarriersandBarrierClassification 466
14.3 BarrierManagement 474
14.4 BarrierProperties 476
14.5 Safety-InstrumentedSystems 477
14.6 Hazard–BarrierMatrices 487
14.7 SafetyBarrierDiagrams 488
14.8 Bow-TieDiagrams 490
14.9 EnergyFlow/BarrierAnalysis 490
14.10 LayerofProtectionAnalysis 493
14.11 BarrierandOperationalRiskAnalysis 502
14.12 SystematicIdentificationandEvaluationofRiskReduction
Measures 512
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