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Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice PDF

217 Pages·2022·4.517 MB·English
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Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice sets out a concise critical review of the way in which risk is assessed in current forensic practice. Setting the area in its historical context, this text outlines current practice in an accessible and clear format and discusses major critiques as well as the ways in which current practice might be developed to improve public protection. Providing an account of the main issues involved in risk and probability and the ways that these have been applied in practice, the book describes current forensic practice in relation to the dominant algorithmic and checklist-based methods. Critiques of these arising from social-legal, risk analysis and experi- mental psychology perspectives are summarised, and questions of the accuracy, fairness and lack of analysis are considered, along with the main challenges asso- ciated with making group and individual predictions of events. The text rejects the idea that clinical assessments of risk are generally ineffective and stresses the role of environmental context, training and expertise in improving practice. Through the author’s work in the field, this text also offers insight into the ways in which current practice might be improved and calls for greater analysis and methodological rigour. Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice appeals to a wide range of forensic prac- titioners including psychologists, psychiatrists, social workers, mental health nurses and lawyers. The text is also relevant to those involved in management and decision-making across forensic settings. David Crighton is a Consultant Psychologist and Visiting Professor of Forensic Psychology at Durham University, UK. He was previously Acting Chief/Deputy Chief Psychologist at the Ministry of Justice, UK. “Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice is an astonishing accomplishment. David Crighton provides a trenchant and sweeping analysis of cutting-edge research on the prediction and management of violent behavior. Historically grounded and written in clear, jargon-free prose, this work is sure to have an immense and long-lasting impact on the field.” —John Monahan, PhD John S. Shannon Distinguished Professor of Law, Professor of Psychology, University of Virginia, USA “David Crighton has done the field a great service in writing this book. He provides an analysis of contemporary forensic practice that is both thoughtful and balanced and which invites the reader to engage with foundational knowl- edge about the history, meaning, and nature of risk. David then, rather gently it should be said, draws our attention to the problems that will inevitably surface if we continue to simply follow convention, before offering some concrete sug- gestions for strengthening and advancing practice. Whilst this is both an easy and engaging read, David challenges us all to do much better. Please take the time to read this important contribution!” —Professor Andrew Day School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia “This book is an articulate and authoritative examination of risk assessment in forensic practice. An in-depth exploration of both current and historic issues in theory and practice that will be a catalyst for much needed discussion and reform. An invaluable and accessible resource for forensic psychologists and other scholars, front-line practitioners and policy makers.” —Dr Roxanne Khan Director of Honour Abuse Research Matrix (HARM), University of Central Lancashire, UK “Based on the fundamental but often ignored distinction between risk and uncertainty, this comprehensive and easy-to-read book provides an excellent introduction to risk assessment, its tools, and its future. It is essential for forensic practice, but also for a better understanding of human judgment, the nature of probability, and the nature of rationality.” —Gerd Gigerenzer Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin New Frontiers in Forensic Psychology Series Editors Graham Towl is Professor of Forensic Psychology at Durham University and was formerly Chief Psychologist at the Ministry of Justice, UK. He is the recipi- ent of the British Psychological Society Award for Distinguished Contributions to Professional Practice and forensic academic knowledge. Tammi Walker is Professor of Forensic Psychology and Principal of St Cuth- bert’s Society Durham University. She is a Chartered Psychologist and Fellow of the British Psychological Society. Her research interests are gendered inter- ventions for managing self-harm and suicide in prisons, mental health, physical health and addressing sexual violence in universities. New Frontiers in Forensic Psychology is a new series of forensic psychology books, which brings together the most contemporary research in core and emerging topics in the field, providing a comprehensive review of new areas of investigation in forensic psychology, and new perspectives on existing topics of enquiry. The series includes original volumes in which the authors are encouraged to explore unchartered territory, make cross-dis- ciplinary evaluations, and where possible break new ground. The series is an essential resource for senior undergraduates, postgraduates, researchers and practitioners across forensic psychology, criminology and social policy. Child to Parent Aggression and Violence A Guidebook for Parents and Practitioners Hue San Kuay and Graham Towl New Perspectives on Arson and Firesetting The Human-Fire Use Relationship Faye K. Horsley Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice David Crighton For a complete list of all books in this series, please visit the series page at: https:// www.routledge.com/New-Frontiers-in-Forensic-Psychology/book-series/NFFP Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice DAVID CRIGHTON Cover image: Getty Images First published 2023 by Routledge 4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2023 David Crighton The right of David Crighton to be identified as author of this work has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Crighton, David A., 1964- author. Title: Risk assessment in forensic practice / by David Crighton. Description: Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2022. | Series: New frontiers in forensic psychology | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Identifiers: LCCN 2021060885 (print) | LCCN 2021060886 (ebook) | ISBN 9780367622671 (hardback) | ISBN 9780367622534 (paperback) | ISBN 9781003108665 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Forensic psychology. | Forensic sociology. | Risk assessment. Classification: LCC RA1148 .C737 2022 (print) | LCC RA1148 (ebook) | DDC 614/.15—dc23/eng/20220121 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021060885 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021060886 ISBN: 978-0-367-62267-1 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-367-62253-4 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-003-10866-5 (ebk) DOI: 10.4324/9781003108665 Typeset in Avenir and Dante by codeMantra Contents Series Foreword xi Acknowledgements xiii Disclosure xiii Introduction 1 1 Key Issues in Risk 4 Risk and Uncertainty 4 Probability 8 Measuring Probability 9 The Principle of Indifference 11 Types of Probability 12 Relative Frequency Probability 12 Knowledge- Based Probability 13 Problems with Knowledge- Based Probability 16 Applying Probability 16 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 16 Conclusion 17 2 The Language of Risk 19 Risk Assessment 22 Risk Treatment 23 Dose Response 24 Risk Management 25 viii Contents Cautionary and Precautionary Principles 26 Robustness and Resilience 27 Risk and Protective Factors 27 Conclusion 30 3 Current Practice in Risk: Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches 31 Use of Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches in Practice 34 Policing 34 Sentencing and Conditional Release 35 Risk Treatment 37 The Case for Using Actuarial and Algorithmic RAIs 40 Conclusion 42 4 Current Practice in Risk: Structured Clinical Judgement Approaches 43 Use in Practice 47 Policing 47 Sentencing and Conditional Release 51 Risk Treatment 52 The Case for Using Checklist RAIs 54 Conclusion 55 5 Critiques of Current Practice: Socio-L egal Perspectives 56 Fairness 58 Accuracy 67 Individual and G roup- Based Predictions 70 Impact 77 Conclusion 78 6 Critiques of Current Practice: Risk Analysis Perspectives 80 Risk Management 85 Risk Analysis 87 Measuring Risk 88 Simplified Qualitative Analysis 90 Standard Qualitative and/o r Quantitative Analysis 90 M odel-B ased and Primarily Quantitative Methods 92 Treating Risk as an Expected Value 93 Criticisms of Using Relative Frequency Probability 95 Criticisms of Using K nowledge-B ased Probability 97 Contents ix Syntactic Criterion 99 Pragmatic Criteria 99 Calibration 99 Treating Risk as a Product of History 100 Standardisation and Consensus 103 Using Models 104 Conclusion 104 7 Critiques of Current Practice: Psychological Perspectives 106 Unbounded Rationality 108 Optimisation Under Constraints 108 Cognitive Illusions 109 Ecological Rationality 110 Biases Associated with Cognitive Illusions 110 Representativeness 110 Availability 111 Anchoring and Adjustment 111 Affect 112 Heuristics and Judgement 112 Critiques of Cognitive Illusions Research 115 Some Problems while Using Content- Blind Norms 118 Studies of Heuristics 123 Are Cognitive Illusions and Ecological Rationality Essentially Similar? 124 The Adaptive Toolbox 125 Conclusion 128 8 Dealing with Risk Better: Analysis and Treatment of Risks 129 The Scale of the Problem 130 Analysing Risks 132 Barriers to Change 134 Doing Better 138 Risk Analysis: Planning 139 Risk Analysis: Methods 140 Cause and Effect Analysis ( CEA) or Ishikawa Diagrams 143 Structured What If Technique (S WIFT) 143 Fault Tree Analysis ( FTA) 144 Event Tree Analyses (E TA) 144

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Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.