Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends PDF
Preview Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends
DK4812_half 10/20/05 3:00 PM Page 1 Risk Analysis in Engineering Techniques, Tools, and Trends MohammadModarres/Riskanalysisinengineering DK1162_prelims FinalProof page ii 29.11.2005 11:57am DK4812_title 10/20/05 2:59 PM Page 1 Risk Analysis in Engineering Techniques, Tools, and Trends Mohammad Modarres Boca Raton London New York A CRC title, part of the Taylor & Francis imprint, a member of the Taylor & Francis Group, the academic division of T&F Informa plc. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Version Date: 20160405 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4200-0349-9 (eBook - PDF) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. 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For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.com (http:// www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com MohammadModarres/Riskanalysisinengineering DK1162_prelims FinalProof page v 29.11.2005 11:57am Preface Engineering systems are becoming more complex, interconnected, nonlinear, geographically widespread, and expensive. Consequences of failures of such systems are exceedingly dam- aginganddestructivetohumans,environment,andeconomy.Failuresofengineeringsystems areunavoidable.Theyareduetointernalcausesorhaveexternalorigins.Ofspecialconcerns are externally caused system failures due to malicious terror acts, which disrupt or fail key infrastructure systems, leading tolarge and widespread damage. Forminimizingoccurrencesandcontrollingconsequencesofengineeringsystemfailures, limitations areoften imposed on their usesinthe form ofsafety, health, environmental,and security regulations. As the developed nations become more prosperous, the demands for safety,health,security,andenvironmentalprotectionequallyrise,leadingtostricterrequire- ments anddemandforincreasedperformance ofengineering systems. Toaddress thistrend, formalengineeringriskanalysisemergedinthelate1960’sandmadesubstantialprogressinto a well-established discipline. Two leading industries that made substantial contributions to this growth are the nuclear and aerospace industries. However, more recent applications ofsuch techniquescoverabroadspectrumof industries, includinggroundandair transpor- tation, chemical process and oil, food processing, defense, financial, and energy production and distribution. The concerns in these industries vary widely and include physical security, information security, asset protection, human safety and health, environmental protection, and componentand structural health management. Ideally,theriskwhichcontemplatespossiblesystemfailuresandconsequencesintheform ofadverseeventsleadingtocapitallosses,fatalities,andenvironmentalcontaminationcanbe estimateddirectlyfromhistoricaloccurrencesofsuchadverseevents.Thisispossibleonlyin engineering systems for which such data and information are readily available. Relying on historical adverse events is, for example, the principal risk assessment approach in the insurance industries. Other examples include assessment of land transportation risks, in which performance and accident data are available. However, there are many engineering systems for which adequate amounts of historical failure data and events needed to assess their risks may not be available. Therefore, it is often necessary to estimate the risks of complex engineering systems from models of such systems — especially for those systems involving low-frequency failure events, leading to adverse consequences, such as nuclear power plants. Risk models used in engineering systems are often probabilistic in nature, because one needsto estimatethe associatedlow frequency offailuresand adverse events. In the mid-1970’s the nuclear industry led by Professor Norman C. Rasmussen of MIT introduced the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology to assess risks associated with the operation of the nuclear power plants in the United States. This model-based methodology has gained considerable attention and has gone through substantial improve- ments since its inception. The PRA methodology, whileoriginally focused on estimating the frequencyofsomeadverseoutcomes(consequences),haschangedtobecomealife-cycletool for supporting design, manufacturing, construction, operation, maintenance, security, and decommissioning of complex engineering systems. Recently, PRA methodology is used for devising risk-based and risk-informed regulatory and policy requirements that are commen- suratewiththe risks of theengineering systems. MohammadModarres/Riskanalysisinengineering DK1162_prelims FinalProof page vi 29.11.2005 11:57am Threeprimarycomponentsofriskanalysisnamelyriskassessment,riskmanagement,and riskcommunication,involveseparate,butimportantinterrelatedactivities.Whiletheprimary purposeof PRA isto assess therisks ofengineering systems, it also provides systematic and transparentriskmodelsandassessmenttoolsforbetterriskmanagementandriskcommuni- cation. This book has been developed as a guide for practitioners of risk analysis and as a textbook for graduate-level and senior-level undergraduate courses in risk analysis and presents the engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis. Particularly, the book emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including formal decision tech- niques needed for risk management. A critical part of any PRA is the treatment of uncertainties in the models and parameters used in the analysis. Since the PRA is a best- estimate approach, the uncertainties associated with the results and risk management strategies must be characterized. For this reason, the book has a special emphasis on uncertainty characterization. The book assumes no prior knowledge of risk analysis and provides the necessary mathematicalandengineeringfoundations.However,somebasicknowledgeofundergradu- ate senior-level probability and statistics and basic engineering is helpful. While the book is notwrittenwithaparticularapplicationinmind,becauseofitpioneeringrolesindeveloping thePRAtechniques,thebookreliesheavilyonexamplesfromthenuclearindustry.Tomake it a complete guide, this book uses related materials from my previous book, Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis:APractical Guide(Marcel Dekker, 1999). Chapter 1 describes the basic definitions and the notions of risk, safety, and perform- ance. Chapter 2 presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. Chapter 3 focuses on methods for performing PRAs. This is a key chapter because it describes the structure of a PRA and how to build the necessary logic models, and how to solve such models to find the risk values. Chapter 4 describes how to assess and measure performance ofthebuildingblocks ofthePRAs, suchasreliabilityofhardwaresubsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. It also shows how performance and risk interrelate. Since the performance measurements and the PRA models involve uncer- tainties, Chapter 5 describes methods of characterizing such uncertainties, and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. Chapters 4 and 5 cover critical topics of PRAs. Chapter 6 reviews a topic that makes the transition from risk assessment to risk management. This chapter describes ways to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. Contributors to risk are the most important results of any risk assess- ment. They focus the analyst’s attention to those elements of the engineering systems that highly affect risks and uncertainties, and prioritize candidates for risk management actions. Chapters 7 and 8 are primarily related to probabilistic risk management techniques, with Chapter7describingriskacceptancecriteriausedasreferencelevelstoaccept,compare,and reduce estimated risks. Chapter 8 summarizing the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book ends with a brief reviewof the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication presented in Chapter 9. Finally, Appendix A provides a comprehensive review of the necessary probability and statistics techniques for model-based risk analyses, and Appendix B provides necessary statistical tables. Thisbookcamefromnotes,homeworkproblems,andexaminationsofagraduatecourse entitled ‘‘Risk Assessment for Engineers’’ offered by me at the University of Maryland, College Park for the past 20 years. I would like to thank all the students who participated MohammadModarres/Riskanalysisinengineering DK1162_prelims FinalProof page vii 29.11.2005 11:57am in this course, many of whom made valuable inputs to the contents of the book. I would like to thank Drs. Mark Kaminskiy and Vasily Krivtsov who were my coauthors with this book’s predecessor, Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide. Many graduate students and research staff working with me helped in the development of the materials and examples of this book. Particularly, I am indebted to Jose L. Hurtado, Reza Azarkhail,SamChamberlain,M.PourGoulMohamad,KristineFretz,CarlosBaroetta,and Genebelin Valbuena for their valuable contributions and examples. Finally, the technical graphicsandformattingofthebookwouldhavenotbeenpossiblewithouttirelesseffortsof Miss Willie M. Webb. Mohammad Modarres College Park, MD, USA MohammadModarres/Riskanalysisinengineering DK1162_prelims FinalProof page viii 29.11.2005 11:57am MohammadModarres/Riskanalysisinengineering DK1162_prelims FinalProof page ix 29.11.2005 11:57am Author Mohammad Modarres is professor of nuclear engineering and reliability engineering and director of the Center for Technology Risk Studies at the University of Maryland, College Park.HepioneeredanddevelopedtheinternationallyleadinggraduateprograminReliability Engineering at the University of Maryland. His research areas are probabilistic risk assess- ment,uncertainty analysis,andphysicsoffailure modeling.Inthepast23yearshehasbeen with the University of Maryland, he has served as a consultant to several governmental agencies, private organizations, and national laboratories in areas related to risk analysis, especially applications to complex systems and processes such as the nuclear power plants. ProfessorModarreshasover200papersinarchivaljournalsandproceedingsofconferences and three books in various areas of risk and reliability engineering. He is a University of MarylandDistinguishedScholar-Teacher.HereceivedhisPh.D.inNuclearEngineeringfrom MIT and his M.S inMechanical Engineering also from MIT.
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