Rise and fall of the carbon civilisation : resolving global environmental and resource problems

2011·2.3 MB·English

by  Moriarty, Patrick

Green Energy and Technology
Patrick Moriarty Damon Honnery
Rise and Fall
of the Carbon Civilisation
Resolving Global Environmental
and Resource Problems

123
Patrick Moriarty, PhD Damon Honnery, PhD
Monash University-Caulfield Campus Monash University-Clayton Campus
Department of Design Department of Mechanical
P.O. Box 197 and Aerospace Engineering
Caulfield East P.O. Box 31
3145 Victoria Clayton
Australia 3800 Victoria
[email protected] Australia
[email protected]

ISSN 1865-3529
ISBN 978-1-84996-482-1 e-ISBN 978-1-84996-483-8
DOI 10.1007/978-1-84996-483-8
Springer London Dordrecht Heidelberg New York

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Control Number: 2010935691

© Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

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Acknowledgments
Patrick Moriarty acknowledges the financial support of the Australasian Centre for
the Governance and Management of Urban Transport (GAMUT), based at the
University of Melbourne, for the research which underpins this book. GAMUT is
in turn funded by the Volvo Research and Education Foundations. He would also
like to thank the Maintenance Technology Institute and the Department of Design,
both at Monash University, for providing him with accommodation during the
research for, and writing of, this book, and Geraldine, for proof-reading all the
chapters.
Damon Honnery would like to thank his colleagues and graduate students,
especially Varun Rao, at the Laboratory for Turbulence Research in Aerospace
and Combustion, Monash University, for their many helpful discussions and
suggestions.
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Contents
1 The Problems We Face.......................................................................... 1
1.1 Introduction................................................................................... 1
1.2 Assessment of Technology Is Often Over-optimistic.................... 2
1.3 An Earth Systems Science Approach Is Needed........................... 4
1.4 Uncertainty About the Future Is Increasing.................................. 5
1.5 Equity Issues Are Central in a Finite World................................. 7
1.6 Energy Is Vital for Economies...................................................... 8
1.7 Time to Make the Needed Changes Is Limited............................. 9
1.8 Proposed Solutions Can Often Make Matters Worse.................... 10
1.9 A New Approach to Economics Is Needed................................... 11
References................................................................................................ 12
2 Global Climate Change.......................................................................... 15
2.1 Introduction................................................................................... 15
2.2 The Science of Global Warming................................................... 16
2.2.1 The Science Basics.......................................................... 16
2.2.2 Mathematical Models and the Temperature Record........ 19
2.2.3 Greenhouse Gases and Their Anthropogenic Sources..... 21
2.2.4 Learning from the Past..................................................... 24
2.2.5 The Polar Regions Are Critical........................................ 26
2.3 What Impacts Can We Expect?..................................................... 27
2.4 What Should We Do?.................................................................... 29
2.4.1 Mitigation........................................................................ 29
2.4.2 Adaptation....................................................................... 31
2.5 Climate Change, the Public and Policy-making............................ 32
2.6 Closing Comments........................................................................ 34
References................................................................................................ 34
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viii Contents
3 Earth’s Resources Are Finite................................................................ 37
3.1 Introduction................................................................................... 37
3.2 Earth’s Energy Flows.................................................................... 38
3.3 Fossil Fuels Availability............................................................... 40
3.4 Mineral Resource Availability...................................................... 44
3.5 Humans in the Biosphere.............................................................. 48
3.5.1 World Population Growth
and Food and Water Availability..................................... 48
3.5.2 Declining Ecosystem Service Provision.......................... 52
3.5.3 Declining Species Diversity............................................ 54
3.6 Living Sustainably in the Anthropocene Epoch............................ 55
References................................................................................................ 55
4 Uncertainty in Global Environmental and Resource Problems......... 59
4.1 Introduction................................................................................... 59
4.2 Uncertainty, Prediction and Climate............................................. 60
4.2.1 Uncertainty and Prediction: General Considerations....... 61
4.2.2 Uncertainty in Climate Prediction................................... 62
4.2.3 Effects of Climate Uncertainty........................................ 64
4.3 Uncertainty in Resource Estimates and Availability..................... 65
4.4 Responses to Uncertainty.............................................................. 67
4.4.1 The Future Is Determined: An IIASA Approach............. 67
4.4.2 Expert Solicitation and Delphi Analysis.......................... 69
4.4.3 Scenario Analysis............................................................ 70
4.4.4 The Precautionary Principle............................................ 71
4.5 Responding to a New, More Uncertain, Future............................. 72
References................................................................................................ 75
5 Renewable Energy: Too Little, Too Late?........................................... 79
5.1 Introduction................................................................................... 79
5.2 Biomass Energy............................................................................ 80
5.3 Hydropower.................................................................................. 83
5.4 Geothermal Energy....................................................................... 84
5.5 Wind Energy................................................................................. 86
5.6 Solar Energy.................................................................................. 90
5.7 Ocean Energy................................................................................ 93
5.8 Comparison of RE Sources........................................................... 95
5.9 Renewable Energy in the Future................................................... 97
References................................................................................................ 98
6 Nuclear Energy: The Ultimate Technological Fix?............................. 103
6.1 Introduction................................................................................... 103
6.2 Nuclear Energy: History and Forecasts......................................... 104
6.3 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle................................................................ 106
Contents ix
6.4 Reactor Design.............................................................................. 109
6.5 Difficulties with Existing Nuclear Power Programs..................... 111
6.5.1 Uranium Resources Are Limited..................................... 112
6.5.2 Low Level Radiation....................................................... 113
6.5.3 Nuclear Accidents and Reactor Safety............................ 114
6.5.4 Natural Hazards............................................................... 115
6.5.5 Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Sabotage................. 116
6.6 Nuclear Power: New Technology for the Long-term?.................. 117
6.6.1 Breeder Reactors.............................................................. 117
6.6.2 Fusion Reactors............................................................... 119
6.7 An Uncertain Nuclear Future........................................................ 121
References................................................................................................ 122
7 Engineering for Greater Energy Efficiency......................................... 125
7.1 Introduction................................................................................... 125
7.2 Defining Efficiency and Its Limits................................................ 126
7.3 Transport....................................................................................... 128
7.4 Buildings and Their Equipment.................................................... 133
7.5 Energy Conversion........................................................................ 136
7.6 Obstacles to Energy Savings from Energy Efficiency.................. 137
7.7 Energy Efficiency in a Wider Context.......................................... 140
References................................................................................................ 141
8 Getting Rid of Atmospheric Carbon:
Sequestration and Air Capture............................................................. 145
8.1 Introduction................................................................................... 145
8.2 Carbon Sequestration in Soils and Forests.................................... 146
8.3 Carbon Sequestration by Ocean Fertilisation................................ 148
8.4 Carbon Capture from Large Power Plants..................................... 149
8.5 Air Capture.................................................................................... 152
8.6 Geological Carbon Sequestration.................................................. 154
8.7 Carbon Sequestration in the Real World....................................... 156
References................................................................................................ 159
9 Great and Desperate Measures: Geo-engineering............................... 161
9.1 Introduction................................................................................... 161
9.2 Global Albedo Decreases.............................................................. 162
9.2.1 Stratospheric Aerosol Placement..................................... 163
9.2.2 Other Approaches............................................................ 164
9.3 Regional Albedo Decreases.......................................................... 165
9.4 Unwanted Impacts of Geoengineering.......................................... 168
9.4.1 Unwanted Climate-related Impacts................................. 168
9.4.2 Ocean Acidification......................................................... 170
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9.5 The Ethics and Politics of Geoengineering................................... 171
9.6 Geoengineering: Weighing the Costs and Benefits....................... 174
References................................................................................................ 176
10 The New Economy.................................................................................. 179
10.1 Introduction................................................................................... 179
10.2 The Global Economy and Energy: Past and Present..................... 182
10.3 What’s Wrong with the Old Economy?........................................ 185
10.4 The Human Needs Approach........................................................ 187
10.5 Human Settlements Case Study.................................................... 189
10.5.1 Is the World Future Urban?............................................. 189
10.5.2 Transport in the Transition and Long-term...................... 191
10.5.3 Dwellings......................................................................... 197
10.6 Toward a Carbon Neutral Civilisation.......................................... 198
References................................................................................................ 201
11 Conclusions............................................................................................. 205
11.1 Introduction................................................................................... 205
11.2 A Brief Review of the Main Themes............................................ 205
11.3 What if We Continue Our Present Path?
(A Look at a World 4 ºC Hotter)................................................... 208
11.4 A Just and Ecologically Sustainable Future.................................. 210
References................................................................................................ 213
Index................................................................................................................. 215
Abbreviations
ASPO: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
b-a-u: business as usual
BITRE: Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (Aust)
BTS: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (US)
CANDU: Canadian Deuterium Uranium
CCN: cloud condensation nuclei
CCS: carbon capture and storage
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CFC: chlorofluorocarbon
CHP: combined heat and power
CNG: compressed natural gas
CO : carbon dioxide
2
CO -eq: carbon dioxide equivalent
2
EC: European Commission
EF: Ecological Footprint
EGS: enhanced geothermal systems
EIA: Energy Information Administration (US)
EJ: exajoule (1018 joule)
EU: European Union
EWEA: European Wind Energy Association
EWG: Energy Watch Group
FC: fuel cell
FFC: full fuel cycle
GCM: Global Circulation Model
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GHG: greenhouse gas
GJ: gigajoule (109 joule)
GL: gigalitre (109 litre)
GNI: Gross National Income
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