Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG)

630 Pages·2016·26.34 MB·English

ICES AFWG REPORT 2016

ICES ADVISORY COMMITTEE
ICES CM 2016/ACOM:06
REF. ACOM
Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group
(AFWG)
Dates 19-25 April 2016
ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer
H. C. Andersens Boulevard 44–46
DK-1553 Copenhagen V
Denmark
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www.ices.dk
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Recommended format for purposes of citation:
ICES. 2016. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), Dates 19-25 April
2016, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:06. 621 pp.
For permission to reproduce material from this publication, please apply to the Gen-
eral Secretary.
The document is a report of an Expert Group under the auspices of the International
Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of
the Council.
© 2016 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
ICES AFWG REPORT 2016 | i
Contents
Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3
0.1 Participants ............................................................................................................ 3
0.2 Terms of Reference ............................................................................................... 4
0.3 Responses to Terms of Reference and other requests ...................................... 6
0.4 Unreported landings ............................................................................................ 6
0.5 Uncertainties in the data ...................................................................................... 8
0.5.1 Catch data ................................................................................................. 8
0.5.2 Survey data ............................................................................................... 9
0.5.3 Age reading ............................................................................................ 10
0.5.4 Sampling error – catch and survey data ............................................. 12
0.6 Assessment method issues ................................................................................ 17
0.7 Environmental included in advice of NEA cod .............................................. 17
0.8 Proposals for status of assessments in 2017–2018 .......................................... 17
0.9 Stock annexes ...................................................................................................... 17
0.10 Audit reports ....................................................................................................... 17
0.11 InterCatch ............................................................................................................ 18
0.12 The percentage of the total catch that has been taken in the NEAFC
regulatory area by year in the recent three years. .......................................... 18
0.13 Special request from NEAFC ............................................................................ 19
0.14 Results of WKNEAMP ....................................................................................... 19
0.15 Benchmark issue list for ang-arct ..................................................................... 19
0.16 Issue list for benchmark on redfishes (smn-arct and smr-arct) in
2018 21
0.17 Relationship to WGIBAR ................................................................................... 24
0.18 Research needs of relevance for the Working group ..................................... 24
0.19 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 24
0.20 Time and place of Next Meeting ....................................................................... 24
1 Ecosystem considerations ........................................................................................... 38
1.1 General description of the Barents Sea ecosystem (figures 1.1–1.2,
tables 1.1-1.10) ..................................................................................................... 39
1.1.1 Geographical description ...................................................................... 39
1.1.2 Meteorological and oceanographic conditions .................................. 39
1.1.3 Primary production ............................................................................... 40
1.1.4 Zooplankton ........................................................................................... 40
1.1.5 Benthos and shellfish ............................................................................. 41
1.1.6 Fish ........................................................................................................... 42
1.1.7 Mammals................................................................................................. 44
1.1.8 Seabirds ................................................................................................... 45
1.1.9 Parasitic organisms ................................................................................ 46
1.1.10 Rare and threatened species ................................................................. 46
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1.1.11 Invasive species ...................................................................................... 46
1.1.12 Human activity....................................................................................... 46
1.2 Current state and expected changes in the ecosystem (figures 1.3–
1.10, tables 1.1-1.7) .............................................................................................. 47
1.2.1 Meteorological and oceanographic conditions .................................. 47
1.2.2 Phytoplankton ........................................................................................ 49
1.2.3 Zooplankton (figures 1.7b–e, 1.8) ........................................................ 50
1.2.4 Northern shrimp .................................................................................... 51
1.2.5 Fish (figures 1.9-1.10, Table 1.1-1.7) ..................................................... 51
1.2.6 Marine mammals ................................................................................... 52
1.2.7 Future long-term trends ........................................................................ 53
1.3 Description of the Barents Sea fisheries and its effect on the
ecosystem (tables 1.10-1.12, figures 1.11-1.18) ................................................ 54
1.3.1 General description of the fisheries ..................................................... 55
1.3.2 Mixed fisheries ....................................................................................... 56
1.3.3 Fleet composition ................................................................................... 56
1.3.4 Impact of fisheries on the ecosystem ................................................... 57
1.4 Ecosystem based management issues and potential assessment
improvements (tables 1.13-1.14) ....................................................................... 58
1.4.1 Multispecies and ecosystem models ................................................... 59
1.4.2 Operational use of ecosystem information in stock state
assessments and prognosis ................................................................... 62
1.5 Monitoring of the ecosystem (Figure 1.18, tables 1.15-1.16) ......................... 68
1.5.1 Standard sections and fixed stations ................................................... 68
1.5.2 Scientific surveys .................................................................................... 68
1.5.3 Spatial data in the Barents Sea ............................................................. 70
1.6 Main conclusions ................................................................................................ 71
2 Cod in subareas 1 and 2 (Norwegian coastal waters) .......................................... 113
2.1 Stock status summary ...................................................................................... 113
2.2 Fisheries ............................................................................................................. 113
2.2.1 Sampling fisheries and estimating catches (Tables 2.1–2.4,
Figures 2.1–2.5) ..................................................................................... 114
2.2.2 Regulations ........................................................................................... 115
2.3 Survey data ........................................................................................................ 117
2.3.1 Indices of abundance and biomass (Tables 2.5-2.14, Figures
2.6-2.12) .................................................................................................. 117
2.3.2 Age reading and stock separation (Tables 2.4, 2.5, 2.8-2.12) .......... 117
2.3.3 Weights at age (Table 2.8, Figure 2.13a) ............................................ 117
2.3.4 Maturity-at-age (Table 2.10, Figure 2.13b) ........................................ 117
2.4 Data available for the Assessment .................................................................. 118
2.4.1 Catch-at-age (Table 2.1 and table 2.14) ............................................. 118
2.4.2 Weights at age (Tables 2.8 and 2.13) .................................................. 118
2.4.3 Natural mortality ................................................................................. 118
2.4.4 Maturity-at-age (Tables 2.10, 2.13, Figure 2.13) ............................... 118
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2.5 Methods used for assessing trends in stock size and mortality (Table
2.13-2.18, Figure 2.16-2.18) ............................................................................... 119
2.6 Results of the Assessment ............................................................................... 119
2.6.1 Comparing trends with last year’s assessment (Table 2.6,
2.15—2.18, Figures 2.6, 2.13–2.14, 2.16–2.18) .................................... 119
2.6.2 Recruitment (Table 2.6, Figure 2.16) .................................................. 120
2.6.3 Catches in 2016 ..................................................................................... 120
2.7 Comments to the Assessment ......................................................................... 120
2.8 Reference points ................................................................................................ 121
2.9 Management considerations ........................................................................... 121
2.10 Rebuilding plan for coastal cod ...................................................................... 121
2.11 Recent ICES advice ........................................................................................... 122
3 North-East Arctic Cod (Subareas 1 and 2) ............................................................. 171
3.1 Status of the fisheries ........................................................................................ 171
3.1.1 Historical development of the fisheries (Table 3.1) ......................... 171
3.1.2 Reported catches prior to 2016 (Tables 3.1-3.4, Figure 3.1b) .......... 171
3.1.3 Unreported catches of northeast Arctic cod (Tables 3.1) ................ 172
3.1.4 TACs and advised catches for 2015 and 2016 .................................. 172
3.2 Status of research .............................................................................................. 172
3.2.1 Fishing effort and cpue (Table A1) .................................................... 172
3.2.2 Survey results - abundance and size at age (Tables 3.5, A2-
A14, Figure 3.1a) .................................................................................. 172
3.2.3 Age reading .......................................................................................... 174
3.3 Data used in the assessment ............................................................................ 175
3.3.1 Catch-at-age (Tables 3.6) ..................................................................... 175
3.3.2 Weight at age (Tables 3.7 -3.9, A2, A4, A6, A8, A12). ..................... 175
3.3.3 Natural mortality ................................................................................. 176
3.3.4 Maturity-at-age (Tables 3.10 and 3.11) .............................................. 176
3.3.5 Cannibalism (Table 3.12) ..................................................................... 176
3.4 Assessment using VPA model (Tables 3.13, A13, Figures 3.3a) ................. 177
3.4.1 XSA settings (Figures 3.2a-b, Table 3.14) .......................................... 178
3.4.2 Including cannibalism in XSA (Tables 3.6, 3.12) .............................. 178
3.4.3 XSA tuning diagnostics (Table 3.14, Figure 3.2a, b, 3.3) ................. 179
3.4.4 Results (Table 3.15-3.24a-b, Figure 3.1b) ........................................... 180
3.5 Results of the assessment ................................................................................. 180
3.5.1 Fishing mortalities and VPA (Table 3.26) ......................................... 180
3.5.2 Recruitment (Table 1.14a) ................................................................... 181
3.6 Reference points and harvest control rules ................................................... 181
3.6.1 Biomass reference points .................................................................... 181
3.6.2 Fishing mortality reference points ..................................................... 181
3.6.3 Harvest control rule ............................................................................. 181
3.6.4 Evaluation of alternative HCRs (WKNEAMP) ................................ 183
3.6.5 Target reference points ........................................................................ 186
3.7 Prediction ........................................................................................................... 186
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3.7.1 Prediction input (Tables 3.21, 3.25, 3.26, Figure 3.4–3.7) ................ 186
3.7.2 Prediction results (Tables 3.26–3.28) ................................................. 187
3.8 Comparison with last year’s assessment ....................................................... 189
3.9 Additional assessment methods ..................................................................... 189
3.9.1 Survey calibration method (Figures 3.8-3.9) .................................... 189
3.9.2 TISVPA (Figures 3.10-3.13) ................................................................. 189
3.10 Comments to the assessment .......................................................................... 190
3.11 SPALY as the basis for ICES advice for 2017. ............................................... 191
3.12 New and revised data sources ........................................................................ 191
3.12.1 Catch data (Tables 3.29, 3.30, 3.1a-b; Figure 3.15) ............................ 191
3.12.2 Survey data ........................................................................................... 192
4 Haddock in Subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic Haddock) ................................ 267
4.1 Status of the Fisheries ....................................................................................... 267
4.1.1 Historical development of the fisheries ............................................ 267
4.1.2 Landings prior to 2016 (Tables 4.1–4.3, Figure 4.1) ......................... 267
4.2 Catch advice for 2016 ....................................................................................... 268
4.3 Status of Research ............................................................................................. 268
4.3.1 Survey results (Tables B1-B4, 4.9-4.11) .............................................. 268
4.4 Weight-at-age (Tables B6, B7) ......................................................................... 269
4.5 Data Used in the Assessment .......................................................................... 269
4.5.1 Estimates of unreported catches (Tables 4.1-4.3) ............................. 269
4.5.2 Catch-at-age (Table 4.4) ....................................................................... 269
4.5.3 Weight-at-age (Tables 4.5–4.6, Table B.6) ......................................... 269
4.5.4 Maturity-at-age (Table 4.7) ................................................................. 269
4.5.5 Natural mortality (Tables 4.8-4.9) ...................................................... 269
4.5.6 Changes in data from last year (Tables 4.6-4.7) ............................... 270
4.6 Assessment models and settings .................................................................... 270
4.6.1 Data for tuning ..................................................................................... 270
4.6.2 SAM model settings............................................................................. 270
4.7 .Results of the Assessments (Tables 4.11–4.14 and Figures 4.1, 4.4,
4.6 and 4.8) ......................................................................................................... 273
4.8 Predictions, reference points and harvest control rules (Tables 4.15,
4.16, 4.18- 4.22) .................................................................................................. 273
4.8.1 Recruitment (Tables 4.15, 4.16.).......................................................... 273
4.8.2 Prediction data (Table 4.18) ................................................................ 273
4.8.3 Biomass reference points (Table 4.23 and Figure 4.3) ..................... 273
4.8.4 Fishing mortality reference points ..................................................... 274
4.8.5 Harvest control rule ............................................................................. 274
4.8.6 Prediction results and catch options for 2017 (Tables 4.19 -
4.22) ........................................................................................................ 275
4.9 Comparison with last year’s assessment ....................................................... 276
4.10 Additional assessment methods (Table 4.17, Figure 4.3) ............................ 277
4.10.1 XSA (Table 4.17) ................................................................................... 277
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4.10.2 TISVPA (Figure 4.3) ............................................................................. 277
4.10.3 Results (Figure 4.3) .............................................................................. 277
4.11 Comments to the assessment 278
5 Saithe in Subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic) ...................................................... 339
5.1 The Fishery (Tables 5.1.1-5.1.2, Figure 5.1.1) ................................................. 339
5.1.1 ICES advice applicable to 2015 and 2016 .......................................... 340
5.1.2 Management applicable in 2015 and 2016 ........................................ 340
5.1.3 The fishery in 2015 and expected landings in 2016 ......................... 340
5.2 Commercial catch-effort data and research vessel surveys ........................ 340
5.2.1 Catch-per-unit-effort ........................................................................... 340
5.2.2 Survey results (Table 5.2.1, Figure 5.2.1) .......................................... 340
5.2.3 Recruitment indices ............................................................................. 340
5.3 Data used in the Assessment ........................................................................... 341
5.3.1 Catch numbers-at-age (Table 5.3.1) ................................................... 341
5.3.2 Weight at age (Table 5.3.2) .................................................................. 341
5.3.3 Natural mortality ................................................................................. 341
5.3.4 Maturity-at-age (Table 5.3.3) .............................................................. 341
5.3.5 Tuning data (Table 5.3.4, Figures 5.3.1-5.3.2) ................................... 341
5.4 SAM runs and settings ..................................................................................... 341
5.5 Final assessment run (Tables 5.5.1-5.5.5, Figures 5.5.1-5.5.4) ...................... 341
5.5.1 SAM F, N and SSB results (Tables 5.5.3-5.5.5, Figures 5.5.3-
5.5.4) ....................................................................................................... 341
5.5.2 Recruitment (Tables 5.3.1 and 5.5.6, Figure 5.1.1and 5.5.6) ............ 341
5.6 Reference points (Figure 5.1.1) ........................................................................ 341
5.6.1 Harvest control rule ............................................................................. 344
5.7 Predictions ......................................................................................................... 344
5.7.1 Input data (Table 5.7.1) ....................................................................... 344
5.7.2 Catch options for 2017 (short-term predictions)(Tables 5.7.2-
5.7.4) ....................................................................................................... 345
5.7.3 Comparison of the present and last year’s assessment .................. 345
5.8 Comments to the assessment and the forecast (Figure 5.5.4). 345
6 Beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella) in Subareas 1 and 2 .................................... 380
6.1 Status of the Fisheries ....................................................................................... 380
6.1.1 Development of the fishery ................................................................ 380
6.1.2 Bycatch in other fisheries .................................................................... 380
6.1.3 Landings prior to 2016 (Tables 6.1—6.5, D1—D2, Figure 6.1)
380
6.1.4 Expected landings in 2016 .................................................................. 381
6.2 Data used in the Assessment ........................................................................... 382
6.2.1 Length- composition from the fishery (Figures 6.3-6.4) ................. 382
6.2.2 Catch-at-age (Tables 6.6 and 6.8) ....................................................... 382
6.2.3 Weight at age (Tables 6.7 and 6.9) ..................................................... 383
6.2.4 Maturity-at-age (Figure 6.5, Table D7) .............................................. 383
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6.2.5 Scientific surveys .................................................................................. 383
6.3 Assessment ........................................................................................................ 384
6.3.1 Results of the Assessment (Tables D8 - D9, Figures 6.10 –
6.15, D5) ................................................................................................. 384
6.4 Comments to the assessment .......................................................................... 386
6.5 Biological reference points .............................................................................. 386
6.6 Management advice ......................................................................................... 386
6.7 Implementing the ICES FMSY approach .......................................................... 387
6.8 Possible future model developments ............................................................. 387
7 Golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) in Subareas 1 and 2 ................................. 433
7.1 Status of the Fisheries ....................................................................................... 433
7.1.1 Recent regulations of the fishery ....................................................... 433
7.1.2 Landings prior to 2016 (Tables 7.1–7.4, D1 & D2, Figures 7.1-
7.2) .......................................................................................................... 433
7.1.3 Expected landings in 2016 .................................................................. 434
7.2 Data Used in the Assessment (Table 0.1 and Figure E2) ............................. 434
7.2.1 Catch at length and age (Table 7.5) ................................................... 434
7.2.2 Catch weight at Age (Table 7.6) ......................................................... 434
7.2.3 Maturity-at-age (Table E4, Figure 7.7a-b) ......................................... 434
7.2.4 Survey results (Tables E1a,b-E2a,b-E3, Figures 7.4a,b–7.5a,b)
435
7.3 Assessment with the GADGET model .......................................................... 435
7.3.1 Description of the model ..................................................................... 435
7.3.2 Data used for tuning ............................................................................ 436
7.3.3 Assessment results using the Gadget model.................................... 437
7.4 State of the stock ............................................................................................... 439
7.4.1 Biological reference points .................................................................. 440
7.4.2 Management advice ............................................................................ 440
7.4.3 Implementing the ICES FMSY framework .......................................... 441
8 Greenland halibut in subareas 1 and 2 .................................................................. 474
8.1 Status of the fisheries ........................................................................................ 474
8.1.1 Landings prior to 2016 (Tables 8.1–8.8)............................................. 474
8.1.2 ICES advice applicable to 2016 and 2017 .......................................... 474
8.1.3 Management ......................................................................................... 475
8.1.4 Expected landings in 2016 .................................................................. 475
8.2 Status of research .............................................................................................. 475
8.2.1 Survey results (Tables F1-F5) ............................................................. 475
8.2.2 Commercial catch-per-unit-effort (Table 8.6 and F5 and
Figure F5) .............................................................................................. 476
8.2.3 Age readings ......................................................................................... 476
8.3 Data used in the assessment ............................................................................ 477
8.4 Methods used in the assessment .................................................................... 478
8.4.1 Model settings ...................................................................................... 478
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8.5 Results of the Assessment ............................................................................... 479
8.5.1 NEA Greenland halibut surplus production models ...................... 480
8.6 Comments to the assessment .......................................................................... 480
9 9Barents Sea
Capelin ......................................................................................................................... 517
9.1 Regulation of the Barents Sea Capelin Fishery ............................................. 517
9.2 TAC and Catch Statistics (Table 9.1) .............................................................. 517
9.3 Sampling ............................................................................................................ 517
9.4 Stock Size Estimates ......................................................................................... 518
9.4.1 Acoustic stock size estimates in 2016 (Table 9.2) ............................. 518
9.4.2 Recruitment estimation in 2016 (Table 9.3) ...................................... 518
9.5 Stock assessment ............................................................................................... 518
9.5.1 Assessment results ............................................................................... 518
9.5.2 Recruitment .......................................................................................... 519
9.5.3 Comments to the assessment ............................................................. 519
9.6 Reference points ................................................................................................ 520
9.7 References .......................................................................................................... 520
10 Anglerfish in Subareas 1 and 2 ............................................................................... 533
10.1 General ............................................................................................................... 533
10.1.1 Species composition ............................................................................ 533
10.1.2 Stock description and management units ........................................ 533
10.1.3 Fishery ................................................................................................... 534
10.2 Data ................................................................................................................ 535
10.2.1 Landings ................................................................................................ 535
10.2.2 Discards ................................................................................................. 535
10.2.3 Biological ............................................................................................... 535
10.2.4 Surveys .................................................................................................. 536
10.2.5 Commercial cpue ................................................................................. 536
10.2.6 Yield-per-recruit estimations .............................................................. 536
10.2.7 Historical stock development ............................................................. 537
10.3 Management considerations ........................................................................... 537
11 References ................................................................................................................... 548
Annex 1: List of Participants ............................................................................................. 561
Annex 2: Terms of Reference for the next meeting ...................................................... 563
Annex 3 List of Working Documents ............................................................................. 564
Annex 4: NEA cod SPALY run ......................................................................................... 565
Annex 5: List of Stock Annexes ...................................................................................... 612
Annex 6: Audit reports ...................................................................................................... 613