Reliability Engineering: Theory and Practice

515 Pages·1999·16.809 MB·English

by  Prof. Dr. Alessandro Birolini (auth.)

Reliability Engineering
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
A. Birolini
Rei ia bi Ii ty Eng in eeri ng
Theory and Practice
Third Edition
with 120 Figures, 60 Tables, and 100 Examples
, Springer
Prof. Dr. Alessandro Birolini
emerit. o. Prof. ETH Zurich
Via Generoso 5
6900 Lugano
Switzerland
First and second edition printed under the title "Quality and Reliability
ofT echnical Systems"
ISBN 978-3-662-03794-2 ISBN 978-3-662-03792-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-03792-8
Cip data applied for
Die Deutsche Bibliothek -CIP-Einheitsaufnahme
Birolini. Alessandro: Reliability engineering: theory and practice; 60 tables /
A. Birolini. -3. ed. -Berlin; Heidelberg; New York; Barcelona; Hong Kong; Milan; Paris;
Singapore; Tokyo: Springer. 1999
Bis 2. Aufl. u.d.T.: Birolini. Alessandro: Quality and reliability of technical systems
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved. whether the whole or part oft he material
is concerned. specifically the rights of translation. reprinting. reuse of illustrations. recitation.
broadcasting. reproduction on microfilm or in other ways. and storage in data banks. Duplication
of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German
Copyright Law of September 9. 1965. in its current version. and permission for use must always
be obtained from Springer-Vedag. Violations are liable for prosecution act under German
Copyright Law.
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1999
Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg in 1999.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 3rd edition 1999
The use of general descriptive names. registered names. trademarks. etc. in this publication
does not imply. even in the absence of a specific statement. that such names are exempt from the
relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
Typesetting: Camera-ready by author; Cover design: medio. Berlin
SPINao737463 6213020-543 210 -Printed on acid -free paper
Preface
Reliability engineering is a rapidly evolving discipline, whose purpose is to develop
methods and tools to predict, evaluate, and demonstrate reliability, maintainability,
and availability of components, equipment, and systems, as well as to support
development and production engineers in building in reliability and maintainability.
To be cost and time effective, reliability engineering has to be coordinated with
quality assurance activities, in agreement with Total Quality Management (TQM)
and Concurrent Engineering efforts. To build in reliability and maintainability into
complex equipment or systems, failure rate and failure mode analyses have to be
performed early in the development phase and be supported by design guidelines for
reliability, maintainability, and software quality as well as by extensive design
reviews. Before production, qualification tests on prototypes are necessary to ensure
that quality and reliability targets have been met. In the production phase, processes
need to be selected and monitored to assure the required quality level. For many
systems, availability requirements have also to be satisfied. In these cases, stochastic
processes can be used to investigate and optimize availability. including logistical
support as well. Software often plays a dominant role, requiring specific quality
assurance activities.
This book presents the state-of-the-art of reliability engineering, both in theory
and practice. It is based on over 25 years experience of the author in this field, half
of which was in industry and half as Professor for reliability engineering at the ETH
(Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich). Following Chapter 1, in which basic
concepts as well as the main tasks and organizational requirements for a cost and
time effective quality and reliability assurance/management of complex equipment
and systems are introduced, the book is structured in the following three parts:
1. Chapters 2 to 8 deal with reliability, maintainability, and availability analyses and
tests, with emphasis on practical aspects in Chapter 3 (selection and qualification
of components), Chapter 5 (design guidelines for reliability, maintainability, and
software quality),_ and Chapter 8 (quality and reliability assurance in the
production phase). This part answers the question how to build in, predict,
evaluate, and demonstrate reliability, maintainability, and availability.
2. Appendices Al to A5 deal with definitions, standards, and program plans for
quality and reliability assurance of complex equipment and systems. This part
addresses the needs of project and quality assurance managers and answers the
question how to specify and realize reliability targets.
VI
3. Appendices A6 to A8 give a sound introduction to probability theory, stochastic
processes, and statistics. This part gives the mathematical foundations necessary
for Chapters 2, 6, and 7, respectively, and addresses (together with Chapter 6) the
needs of system oriented engineers.
Methods and tools are presented in such a way that they can be tailored to cover a
range of reliability, maintainability, or availability requirements from low up to
stringent. The investigation of repairable systems is performed systematically,
starting from constant failure and repair rates between consecutive states (Markov
processes) and generalizing step by step up to the case in which the process involved
is regenerative with a minimum number of regeneration states (Chapter 6). The
convergence of the point availability to its steady-state value is analyzed in detail.
A correct explanation of the waiting time paradox is given (Appendix A 7). Approxi
mate expressions for the reliability and availability of complex repairable systems
and for spare parts reservation are developed in depth (Chapters 6 and 4). The
estimation and demonstration of a constant failure rate J... (or MTBF = IIA) and the
empirical evaluation of field data are considered in detail (Appendix A8, Chapter 7).
A new derivation of the confidence interval for an unknown probability p is given
(Appendix A8). Methods and tools for the selection and qualification of (electronic)
components and assemblies are presented in depth (Chapters 3 and 8). Design
guidelines for reliability, maintainability, and software quality as well as checklists
for design reviews are discussed extensively (Chapter 5, Appendix A4). Cost optimi
zation is considered for several applications (Chapters 1, 4, and 8). Aspects of safety
and risk management as well as trends in quality management systems are outlined
(Chapters 1 and 2, Appendices A2 and A3). Many results are presented in tables or
graphs. More than 100 practice oriented examples illustrate methods and tools.
Stochastic processes and tools introduced in Appendix A7 and Chapter 6 can also
be used to investigate the reliability and availability of fault tolerant systems for
cases in which a reliability block diagram does not exist, on the basis of an extended
reliability state transition diagram (a publication on this subject is in preparation).
The book has served for many years (4th German ed. 1997, Springer) as a text
book for three semesters teaching at the ETH Zurich and for courses aimed at
engineers in industry. The basic course (Chapters 1, 2, 5, with an introduction to
Chapters 3, 4, 6 to 8) should belong to the curriculum of every engineering degree.
This book is a careful update and revision of the book Quality and Reliability of
Technical Systems (2nd ed. 1997, Springer), it aims to be a contribution to a
sustainable development/world. The comments of many friends and the agreable
cooperation with Springer-Verlag are gratefully aknowledged here.
Lugano and Zurich, June 1999 Alessandro Birolini
Contents
1 Basic Concepts, Quality and Reliability Assurance of Complex Equipment and Systems
1.1 Introduction... 1
1.2 Basic Concepts. . 2
1.2.1 Reliability. 2
1.2.2 Failure. . 3
1.2.3 Failure Rate 4
1.2.4 Maintenance, Maintainability 8
1.2.5 Logistical Support. . . . . 8
1.2.6 Availability . . . . . . . 9
1.2.7 Safety, Risk, and Risk Acceptance 9
1.2.8 QUality. . . . . . . . . . 11
1.2.9 Cost and System Effectiveness. 11
1.2.10 Product Liability . . . . . . 15
1.2.11 Historical Development . . . 16
1.3 Quality and Reliability Assurance Tasks for Complex Equipment and Systems. 17
1.4 Basic Quality and Reliability Assurance Rules. . 19
1.5 Elements of a Total Quality Management System 23
1.6 Quality and Reliability Assurance Handbook 24
1.7 Motivation and Training . . . . ~ . . 25
2 Reliability Analysis During the Design Phase . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.1 Introduction........................ 27
2.2 Predicted Reliability of Equipment and Systems with Simple Structures 30
2.2.1 Required Function. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.2.2 Reliability Block Diagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.2.3 Operating Conditions at Component Level, Stress Factors . 35
2.2.4 Failure Rate of Electronic Components 37
2.2.5 Reliability of One-Item Structures . . 41
2.2.6 Reliability of Series-Parallel Structures 42
2.2.6.1 Items without Redundancy 43
2.2.6.2 Concept of Redundancy. 44
2.2.6.3 Parallel Models . . . . 44
2.2.6.4 SerieslParallel Structures 46
2.2.6.5 Majority Redundancy. . 50
2.2.7 Part Count Method . . . . . . 52
2.3 Reliability of Systems with Complex Structures . 53
2.3.1 Key Item Method ......... . 53
2.3.1.1 Bridge Structures . . . . . . 54
2.3.1.2 ReI. Block Diagram in which Elements Appear More than Once. 55
2.3.2 Successful Path Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
VIII Contents
2.3.3 State Space Method. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
2.3.4 Boolean Function Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.3.5 Parallel Models with Constant Failure Rates and Load Sharing . 62
2.3.6 Elements With More Than One Failure Mode. 65
2.3.7 Fault Tolerant Structures . 67
2.4 Reliability Allocation . 68
2.5 Mechanical Reliability. . . . . 68
2.6 Failure Mode Analyses. . . . . 73
2.7 Reliability Aspects in Design Reviews. 75
3 Qualification Tests for Components and Assemblies. 81
3.1 Selection Criteria for Electronic Components . 81
3.1.1 Environment. . . . . 82
3.1.2 Performance Parameters 84
3.1.3 Technology . . . . . 84
3.1.4 Manufacturing Quality. 90
3.1.5 Long-Term Behavior of Performance Parameters 90
3.1.6 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.2 Qualification Tests for Complex Electronic Components 91
3.2.1 Electrical Test of Complex ICs. . . . . . . . 92
3.2.2 Characterization of Complex ICs. . . . . . . 94
3.2.3 Environmental and Special Tests of Complex ICs 96
3.2.4 Reliability Tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
3.3 Failure Modes, Failure Mech., and Failure Analysis of Electronic Components. . 105
3.3.1 Failure Modes of Electronic Components . . . 105
3.3.2 Failure Mechanisms of Electronic Components . 106
3.3.3 Failure Analysis of Electronic Components. . 106
3.4 Qualification Tests for Electronic Assemblies. . 110
4 Maintainability Analysis . . . . .114
4.1 Maintenance, Maintainability .114
4.2 Maintenance Concept. . . . .117
4.2.1 Fault Detection and Isolation. .118
4.2.2 Equipment and System Partitioning. · 120
4.2.3 User Documentation. . . . . . . .120
4.2.4 Training of Operating and Maintenance Personnel . .121
4.2.5 User Logistical Support. . . . . . .121
4.3 Maintainability Aspects in Design Reviews. · 123
4.4 Predicted Maintainability. . . . · 123
4.4.1 Calculation of MITRS' . . . . · 123
4.4.2 Calculation of MITPMS' . . . .127
4.5 Basic Models for Spare Part Provisioning .127
4.5.1 Centralized Logistical Support, Nonrepairable Spare Parts. .127
4.5.2 Decentralized Logistical Support, Nonrepairable Spare Parts. .131
4.5.3 Repairable Spare Parts. .132
4.5.4 Cost Considerations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · 134
Contents IX
5 Design Guidelines for Reliability, Maintainability, and Software Quality. .135
5.1 Design Guidelines for Reliability . .135
5.1.1 Derating. .135
5.1.2 Cooling. . . . . . . . .136
5.1.3 Moisture . . . . . . . .138
5.1.4 Electromagnetic Compatibility, ESD Protection. .139
5.1.5 Components and Assemblies. . .141
5.1.5.1 Component Selection. . . · 141
5.1.5.2 Component Use. . . . . · 141
5.1.5.3 PCB and Assembly Design. · 142
5.1.5.4 PCB and Assembly Manufacturing. · 143
5.1.5.5 Storage and Transportation. . . . .144
5.1.6 Particular Guidelines for IC Design and Manufacturing . .144
5.2 Design Guidelines for Maintainability . .145
5.2.1 General Guidelines. . . . . . · 145
5.2.2 Testability. . . . . . . . . · 145
5.2.3 Accessibility, Exchangeability. .147
5.2.4 Operation, Adjustment. . . . · 148
5.3 Design Guidelines for Software Quality · 148
5.3.1 Guidelines for Software Defect Prevention . · 152
5.3.2 Configuration Management. . . .153
5.3.3 Guidelines for Software Testing . · 154
5.3.4 Software Quality Growth Models. .154
6 Reliability and Availability of Repairable Systems .158
6.1 Introduction and General Assumptions. . . . .158
6.2 One-Item Structure. . . . . . . . . . . . .164
6.2.1 One-Item Structure New at Time t = O. . 165
6.2.1.1 Reliability Function. . 166
6.2.1.2 Point Availability . . 166
6.2.1.3 Average Availability . 168
6.2.1.4 Interval Reliability. . 168
6.2.1.5 Special Kinds of Availability. . 169
6.2.2 One-Item Structure New at Time t = 0 and with Constant Failure Rate f... . 172
6.2.3 One-Item Structure with Arbitrary Initial Conditions at Time t = 0 . 172
6.2.4 Asymptotic Behavior. .174
6.2.5 Steady-State Behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
6.3 Systems without Redundancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
6.3.1 Series Structure with Constant Failure and Repair Rates. . 178
6.3.2 Series Structure with Constant Failure and Arbitrary Repair Rates. . 181
6.3.3 Series Structure with Arbitrary Failure and Repair Rates. . . . . 182
6.4 1-out-of-2 Redundancy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
6.4.1 l-out-of-2 Redundancy with Constant Failure and Repair Rates. . . 185
6.4.2 1-out-of-2 Redundancy with Constant Failure and Arbitrary Repair Rates. . 193
6.4.3 l-out-of-2 Redundancy with Const. Failure Rate only in the Reserve State . 196
6.5 k-out-of-n Redundancy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 202
6.5.1 k-out-of-n Warm Redundancy Constant Failure and Repair Rates. . .. .203
6.5.2 k-out-of-n Active Redundancy with Const. Failure and Arbitrary Repair Rates. 206
6.6 Simple SeriesIParallel Structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
x
Contents
6.7 Approximate Expressions for Large SerieslParallel Structures. .215
6.7.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . .215
6.7.2 Application to a Practical Example . .219
6.8 Systems with Complex Structure. . . . . .227
6.8.1 General Considerations. . . . . . .227
6.8.2 Computer Aided Reliability and Availability Prediction. .229
6.9 Influence ofImperfect Switching. . . .231
6.10 Influence of Preventive Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
6.10.1 One-item Repairable Structure. . . . . . . . . . . .233
6.10.2 l-out-of-2 Active Redundancy with Hidden Failures in one Element. .235
7 Statistical Quality Control and Reliability Tests . . 239
7.1 Statistical Quality Control . . . . . . . . . 239
7.1.1 Estimation of a Defective Probability p . 240
7.1.2 Simple Two-sided Sampling Plans for the Demonstration of a Probability p. . 242
7.1.2.1 Simple Two-sided Sampling Plans. . . . . . . . . . .243
7.1.2.2 Sequential Tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
7.1.3 One-sided Sampling Plans for the Demonstration of a Probability p . 246
7.2 Statistical Reliability Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
7.2.1 Estimation and Demonstration of a Reliability or Availability Value . . 250
7.2.2 Estimation and Demonstration of a Constant Failure Rate A. or MTBF = 1/ A. . 252
7.2.2.1 Estimation of a constant Failure Rate A. or of MTBF = 1/ A. . . . . 254
7.2.2.2 Simple Two-sided Test for the Demonstration of A. or MTBF = 1/')... . 256
7.2.2.3 Simple One-sided Test for the Demonstration of ')... or MTBF = 1/')... . 260
7.3 Statistical Maintainability Tests . . . 261
7.3.1 Estimation of an MITR. . . .261
7.3.2 Demonstration of an MITR . . 263
7.4 Accelerated Testing . . . . . . .265
7.5 Goodness-of-fit Tests . . . . . .270
7.5.1 Kolmogorov-Smimov Test .270
7.5.2 Chi-square Test. . . . . .274
8 Quality and Reliability Assurance During the Production Phase. .277
8.1 Basic Activities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .277
8.2 Testing and Screening of Electronic Components .278
8.2.1 Testing of Electronic Components . . . .278
8.2.2 Screening of Electronic Components . . .279
8.3 Testing and Screening of Electronic Assemblies. .282
8.4 Test and Screening Strategies, Economic Aspects .284
8.4.1 Basic Considerations. . . . . . .284
8.4.2 Quality Cost Optimization . . . .286
8.4.3 Procedure to handle first deliveries .292
8.5 Reliability Growth. . . . . . . . . . . .292