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Regional Mall REIT - Simon Property Group PDF

89 Pages·2008·4.78 MB·English
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Pick Up Stocks Annual Real Estate Securities Outlook January 2008 DavidM.Fick,CPA,[email protected] 443-224-1308 RodPetrik,[email protected] 443-224-1306 JohnW.Guinee,[email protected] 443-224-1307 JerryL.Doctrow,[email protected] 443-224-1309 NathanIsbee,[email protected] 443-224-1346 Stifel REIT Team Senior Real Estate Securities Analysts David M. Fick, CPA REITs, Retail, Industrial, Commercial Finance Jerry L. Doctrow Health Care John W. Guinee Office Rod Petrik Multifamily, Lodging The Stifel Nicolaus Real Estate Securities Team Nathan Isbee Analyst, Retail Josh Barber Associate Analyst, Industrial, Commercial Finance Dan Bernstein Associate Analyst, Health Care Real Estate Gabe Buerkle, CFA Associate Analyst, Lodging Simon Yarmak Associate Analyst, Multifamily Erin Aslakson Associate Analyst, Office Jennifer Hummert Associate Analyst, NNN, REITs Deb Johnston Real Estate Group Administrator Pick Up Stocks 2008 Annual Real Estate Securities Outlook Baltimore 1/4 Boston 1/8 Chicago 1/9 New York 1/7 Philadelphia 1/10 All relevant disclosures and certifications appear on pages 88-89 of this report. REITs Suffer Debt Market Crisis in 2007 CumulativeAnnualizedREIT ReturnsThrough December31,2007 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% n etur 5% R al 0% ot T -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% 1Year 3Year 5Year 7Year Office -20.6% 10.5% 19.8% 15.9% Industrial -5.5% 10.8% 18.3% 16.0% RegionalMalls -14.4% 10.7% 24.0% 25.5% ShoppingCenters -14.0% 8.8% 20.7% 21.5% Apartment -25.8% 5.5% 15.1% 11.1% Hotel -24.8% 1.4% 11.9% 7.3% Healthcare 3.6% 15.7% 25.8% 29.8% Diversified -12.5% 12.1% 20.9% 17.7% EquityREITTotal -16.8% 8.2% 17.9% 18.3% Source: FactSetResearchSystemsInc.,StifelNicolausResearch 2007 – No Eight-Peat for REITs • Down 16.8% in ’07 vs. up 35.9% in ’06, 12.1% in ’05; 17.9% 5 yr • The entire story for REITs in 2007 was debt market liquidity implosion • High volatility accelerated • M&A ended • Sector differentiation in 2007 – Stock picking was important – every major sector had outperformers • 15 REITs had total returns above 0% • 57 REITs had total returns below negative 20% – Coastal, growth theme – Big Caps underperformed – 30 large caps in RMP were down 18.0% vs RMS down 16.8%. 2007 – REIT Reversal • Unprecedented outflows from mutual funds and non-dedicated shops exited • Average dividend yield increased from 3.7% to 4.9% – 10-year went from 4.7% (1/1) to 5.3% (6/13) to 4.04% (12/31) – Yield spread re-established, ended at 87 (192 bps reversal) • Forward FFO multiples decreased from 17.9x to 13.3x • Forward FAD multiples decreased from 21.9x to 16.2x • Private market support disappeared — primary factor as REITs traded down with liquidity crisis • Dividend increasers outperformed again Equity REIT M&A Activity ’04 – ’07 ($ millions) Equity Total Announced Ticker Type Target Acquiror Value* Value* 1/22/2004 GL Privatization GreatLakesREIT AslanRealtyPartners,LLC 241 241 5/3/2004 KTR Merger KeystonePropertyTrust Prologis 950 1,600 6/21/2004 CPG Merger ChelseaPropertyGroup SimonPropertyGroup 3,500 4,800 8/20/2004 RSE Merger TheRouseCompany GeneralGrowthProperties,Inc. 7,200 12,600 8/24/2004 PLRE Merger PriceLegacyCorporation KimcoRealtyCorporation 696 1,200 10/4/2004 SMT Merger SummitPropertyGroup CamdenPropertyTrust 1,085 1,900 10/25/2004 TCR Merger CornerstoneRealtyIncomeTrust ColonialPropertiesTrust 650 1,500 11/23/2004 PGE Privatization PrimeGroupRealtyTrust TheLightstoneGroup 294 890 12/20/2004 KRT Privatization KramontRealtyTrust CentroPropertiesLimited 610 1,275 6/6/2005 CDX Merger CatellusDevelopmentCorporation ProLogis 3,900 4,900 6/7/2005 GBP Privatization GablesResidentialTrust INGClarion 1,800 3,000 6/17/2005 CRO Privatization CRTProperties,Inc. DRAAdvisorsLLC 937 1,700 9/2/2005 CARS Privatization CapitalAutomotiveREIT DRAAdvisorsLLC 1,700 3,400 10/3/2005 PP Merger PrentissPropertiesTrust BrandywineRealtyTrust 1,900 3,300 10/24/2005 AML Privatization AMLIResidentialProperties MorganStanleyRealEstateAdvisors 969 2,100 12/7/2005 CNT Privatization CenterPointPropertiesTrust CalEastIndustrialInvestors 2,500 3,400 12/19/2005 TCT Privatization TownAndCountry OnexRealEstate 860 1,300 12/21/2005 ARI Privatization ArdenRealty GERealEstate 3,200 4,800 2/21/2006 MHX Privatization MeristarHospitality Blackstone 1,300 2,600 2/23/2006 BED Privatization BedfordProperties LBARealtyLLC 450 900 3/6/2006 CRE Privatization CarrAmerica Blackstone 3,000 5,600 3/7/2006 SHU Merger ShurgardStorage PublicStorage,Inc. 2,600 5,000 5/1/2005 CRP Merger CNLRetirementProperties HealthcarePropertyTrust(HCP) 3,600 5,300 5/22/2006 BOY Privatization BoykinLodging BraveheartHoldingsLP 274 416 5/22/2006 JAMS Privatization JamesonInns JERoberts&Co. 181 371 6/5/2006 TRZ Combination Trizec Brookfield/Blackstone 6,574 8,900 7/9/2006 HTG Privatization HeritagePropertyInvestmentTrust Centro/Watts 1,773 3,200 7/10/2006 PNP Merger PanPacificRetailProperties KimcoRealtyCorporation 2,900 4,000 7/23/2006 NKT Merger NewkirkRealtyTrust LexingtonCorporatePropertiesTrust 1,081 4,600 8/3/2006 RA Merger RecksonAssociatesRealtyCorp. SLGreenRealtyCorp. 4,000 6,000 8/7/2006 SIZ Merger SizelerProperty MorguardCorp.(MRC) 324 409 8/21/2006 GLB Privatization GlenboroughRealtyTrust MorganStanleyRealEstateAdvisors 926 1,900 8/31/2006 BNP Privatization BNPResidentialPropertiesInc. Babcock&Brown 316 766 9/13/2006 WRS Merger WindroseMedicalProperties HealthCareREIT 451 877 9/18/2006 TRA Merger TravelCentersofAmerica HospitalityPropertyTrust(HPT) 950 1,900 9/22/2006 CPV Privatization CentraCorePropertiesTrust GEOGroup 356 396 10/23/2006 GPT Merger GovernmentPropertiesTrust RecordRealtyTrust 223 484 10/30/2006 TSY Privatization TrustStreetProperties GECapitalSolutions 1,145 3,000 11/6/2006 COE Privatization ColumbiaEquityTrust JPMorganAssetManagement 253 502 11/19/2006 EOP Privatization EquityOfficeProperties Blackstone 23,000 39,000 12/21/2006 NHR Merger NationalHealthcareRealty(NHR) NationalHealthcareCorp.(NHC) 225 253 1/19/2007 CHP Privatization CNLHotels&Resorts MorganStanleyRealEstateAdvisors 3,200 6,600 2/16/2007 MLS Merger TheMillsCorporation SimonProperties&FarallonCapital 1,640 7,900 2/21/2007 WXH Privatization WinstonHotels InlandAmericanRealEstate 430 697 2/27/2007 NXL Privatization NewPlanExel CentroPropertiesLimited 3,400 6,200 3/13/2007 SFC Privatization SpiritFinance MacquarieBank 1,640 3,200 4/16/2007 KPA Privatization InnkeepersUSA ApolloInvestmentCorp.(AINV) 800 1,500 4/24/2007 HIH Privatization HighlandHospitality JERPartners 1,210 2,000 4/30/2007 EHP Privatization EagleHospitality ApolloInvestmentCorp.(AINV) 319 668 5/22/2007 CEI Privatization CrescentRealEstate MorganStanleyRealEstateAdvisors 2,885 6,500 5/29/2007 ASN Privatization Archstone-Smith TishmanSpeyer&LehmanBrothers 15,253 22,000 6/21/2007 ENN Privatization EquityInns GoldmanSachsWhitehallFund 1,287 2,200 6/25/2007 APRO Privatization AmericaFirstApartmentInvestors SentinelRealEstate 281 532 7/3/2007 HLT Privatization HiltonHotels Blackstone 20,546 26,000 7/25/2007 RPB Merger RepublicPropertyTrust LibertyPropertyTrust(LRY) 485 900 11/5/2007 AFR Merger AmericanFinancialRealty GramercyCapital(GKK) 1,100 3,400 2007Total 54,476 90,297 *InMillions 2004-2007Total 143,370 240,577 Source: NAREIT,StifelNicolausResearch Fund Flows Still Track Performance REIT Mutual FundsFlowsvs.SectorPerformance $2800 1400 MonthlyNetREITFundsFlows RMSIndex 1300 $2400 Asof12/31/2007 1200 RMS:975.61 ns)$2000 1100 Millio 1000 $1600 900 $ ( s 800 d n$1200 u 700 F utual $800 600RM M 500S T R REI $400 400EIT d 300In e d cat $ 200ex di e 100 D$(400) to 0 s w o$(800) -100 Fl d -200 Fun$(1200) -300 -400 $(1600) -500 $(2000) -600 Annual 1996:$2,737 1997:$4,763 1998:$(493) 1999:$(867) 2000:$319 2001:$24 2002:$3,410 2003:$4,613 2004:$6,815 2005:$2,064 2006:$6,479 2007:($5,889) Inflows: 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Source: StifelNicolaus,AMGData Japanese Funds Flows Reverse U.S./Global REIT Mutual FundsTrading in Japan FundsUnderManagementasofNovember30,2007 (basedon109.979Yen/USDexchangerate) 30 25 20 s n o Billi 15 $ S U FundBalances: (billions) 12/31/03 $0.233 10 12/31/04 $4.491 12/31/05 $9.563 12/31/06 $20.152 11/30/07 $18.143 5 0 Sep-0O3ct-0N3ov-D0e3c-0J3an-F0e4b-0M4ar-0A4pr-0M4ay-0J4un-0J4ul-A04ug-S0e4p-0O4ct-0N4ov-D0e4c-0J4an-F0e5b-0M5ar-0A5pr-0M5ay-0J5un-0J5ul-A05ug-S0e5p-0O5ct-0N5ov-D0e5c-0J5an-F0e6b-0M6ar-0A6pr-0M6ay-0J6un-0J6ul-A06ug-S0e6p-0O6ct-0N6ov-D0e6c-0J6an-F0e7b-0M7ar-0A7pr-0M7ay-0J7un-0J7ul-A07ug-S0e7p-0O7ct-07 Source: HeitmanInternationalLLC,StifelNicolaus REIT Dividend Yield Spread Reverts to Positive REITDividendYieldvs.10-YearTreasuryYield vs.CorporateBBB7-10Year ModernREITEra1991-2007 10.0% Asof12/31/2007: REITDiv.Yield4.91% 10-Yr.Treas.Yield4.04% CorporateBBBYield6.11% 10-Yr.Treas.SpreadtoREITYield0.87% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 12/91 12/92 12/93 12/94 12/95 12/96 12/97 12/98 12/99 12/00 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 Source:Bloomberg,ThomsonOne REITDividendYield 10-YearTreasuryYield SSBBBB

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Arden Realty Lexington Corporate Properties Trust Hilton Hotels Ticker. Rating. 2008E FFO. 2008E FAD. Ratio. Core Office REITs. SLG. H.
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