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Reducing Nuclear Arsenals PDF

317 Pages·1991·30.34 MB·English
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REDUCING NUCLEAR ARSENALS Also edited by David Carlton and Carlo Schaerf THE DYNAMICS OF THE ARMS RACE INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND WORLD SECURITY ARMS CONTROL AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION CONTEMPORARY TERROR: Studies in Sub-State Violence THE HAZARDS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CRISIS THE ARMS RACE IN THE 1980s SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE AFTER TITO: A Powder-Keg for the 1980s? REASSESSING ARMS CONTROL THE ARMS RACE IN THE ERA OF STAR WARS PERSPECTIVES ON THE ARMS RACE THE ARMS RACE IN AN ERA OF NEGOTIATIONS Reducing Nuclear Arsenals Edited by Carlo Schaerf Professor of Physics University of Rome II and David Carlton Lecturer in International Studies University of Warwick Palgrave Macmillan ISBN 978-1-349-12182-3 ISBN 978-1-349-12180-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-12180-9 © Unione Scienziati per il Disarmo Convegno Internatzionale, 1991 Softcover reprint of the hardcover Ist edition 1991 978-0-333-54616-1 All rights reserved. For information, write: Scholarly and Reference Division, St. Martin's Press, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 First published in the United States of America in 1991 ISBN 978-0-312-06535-5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Reducing nuclear arsenals/edited by Carlo Schaerf and David Carlton. p. cm. Proceedings of the Third Castiglioncello International Conference on 'Nuclear Arsenals Reduction: Perspectives and Consequences' held at Castiglioncello, Italy from 22 to 25 Sept. 1989, and organized by the Union of Scientists for Disarmament. Includes index. ISBN 978-0-312-06535-5 1. Nuclear arms control-Congresses. 2. Nuclear arms control -Europe-Congresses. I. Schaerf, Carlo. II. Carlton, David, 1938- III. Castiglioncello International Conference on 'Nuclear Arsenals Reduction: Perspectives and Consequences' (3rd : 1989) IV. Union of Scientists for Disarmament. JX1974.7.R42 1991 327.1'74--dc20 91-11661 CIP Contents List of Tables viii List of Figures ix Foreword X Preface List of Abbreviations xi Notes on the Contributors xiv PART I THE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ARSENALS OF THE SUPERPOWERS 1 The Soviet-US Strategic Nuclear and Space Talks: Problems and Prospects L. Masterkov 3 2 US-Soviet Negotiations: Problems and Prospects Richard L. Garwin 9 3 The US-Soviet Strategic Arms Reduction Talks: Status and Major Issues Paul S. Brown 25 4 START: Finishing an Unfinished Business Alexei G. Arbatov 37 5 The Future of the Global Strategic Balance Desmond Ball 43 6 The Future Use of Redundant Weapon-grade Material Edoardo Amaldi 79 7 Nuclear Warhead Dismantlement and Possible Reuse in Civil Nuclear Power Reactors Cesare Silvi 97 v Vl Contents PART II ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL SECOND-RANK NUCLEAR FORCES 8 The Nuclear Arsenals of France, Great Britain and China Hugh Beach 109 9 The French Nuclear Force in the Era of Negotiations Jean Klein 125 10 The International System and Nuclear Deterrence: A Chinese Perspective Cui Liru 141 11 Nuclear-weapon Proliferation: Problems and Prospects Alessandro Pascolini 155 12 Nuclear-weapon Proliferation Francesco Calogero 191 PART III THE REDUCTION OF CONVENTIONAL AND THEATRE NUCLEAR FORCES IN EUROPE 13 The INF Treaty: Provisions and Precedents Catherine M. Kelleher 207 14 Conventional and Nuclear Forces in Europe: The Importance of the Vienna Talks Jonathan Dean 225 15 Conventional Stability and Nuclear-weapon Cuts in Europe Carlo Jean 241 16 Deterrence or Disarmament: NATO Must Cope With the Debate Antonia Handler Chayes and Caroline R. Russell 257 17 The NATO Summit of May 1989 and Theatre Nuclear Weapons in Europe Elmar Schmiihling 271 18 The Lance Saga: A Us-NATO Debate on the Modernisation of Theatre Nuclear Weapons Marco De Andreis 281 Contents vii 19 The Vienna Talks and the Italian Armoured Tanks Series Luigi Anderlini 297 Index 301 List of Tables 5.1 Allocation of Soviet RISOP warheads to target categories in generated and non-generated situations, December 1987 52 5.2 Allocation of US SlOP warheads to target categories in alert and generated situations, December 1987 55 5.3 US .strategic nuclear forces, December 1987 60 5.4 Soviet strategic nuclear forces, December 1987 62 5.5 US strategic nuclear forces, 1995 66 5.6 Soviet strategic nuclear forces, 1995 68 5.7 US strategic nuclear forces, 50 per cent START 71 5.8 Soviet strategic nuclear forces, 50 per cent START 72 6.1 The world's present nuclear warheads 83 6.2 World nuclear power plant capacity 84 6.3 Preliminary parameters for US nuclear warhead dismantlement facility 93 7.1 The world's present nuclear warheads (estimate) 100 11.1 Some quantitative aspects of nuclear-explosive materials 166 11.2 Nuclear energy worldwide, 31 December 1987 169 11.3 Nuclear share of electricity generation, 1986 169 11.4 Research reactors in operation, 31 December 1987 170 11.5 Energy-linked enrichment and reprocessing plants worldwide 173 13.1 The history of the INF Treaty 209 13.2 Missiles and launchers to be eliminated 213 13.3 Summary of verification sites 215 13.4 INF Treaty: frequency of on-site inspections 216 18.1 US theatre nuclear weapons in Europe (1989) 281 viii List of Figures 6.1 Nuclear warhead elimination/verification system 89 6.2 Warhead dismantlement 92 11.1 Critical masses 167 11.2 Light Water Reactor fuel cycle 171 13.1 The INF: a chronology 210 ix

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