Reducing Nuclear Arsenals

317 Pages·1991·30.34 MB·English

by  Carlo Schaerf

REDUCING NUCLEAR ARSENALS
Also edited by David Carlton and Carlo Schaerf
THE DYNAMICS OF THE ARMS RACE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND WORLD SECURITY
ARMS CONTROL AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
CONTEMPORARY TERROR: Studies in Sub-State Violence
THE HAZARDS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
CRISIS
THE ARMS RACE IN THE 1980s
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE AFTER TITO: A Powder-Keg
for the 1980s?
REASSESSING ARMS CONTROL
THE ARMS RACE IN THE ERA OF STAR WARS
PERSPECTIVES ON THE ARMS RACE
THE ARMS RACE IN AN ERA OF NEGOTIATIONS
Reducing Nuclear Arsenals
Edited by
Carlo Schaerf
Professor of Physics
University of Rome II
and
David Carlton
Lecturer in International Studies
University of Warwick
Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 978-1-349-12182-3 ISBN 978-1-349-12180-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-12180-9
© Unione Scienziati per il Disarmo Convegno Internatzionale, 1991
Softcover reprint of the hardcover Ist edition 1991 978-0-333-54616-1
All rights reserved. For information, write:
Scholarly and Reference Division,
St. Martin's Press, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue,
New York, N.Y. 10010
First published in the United States of America in 1991
ISBN 978-0-312-06535-5
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Reducing nuclear arsenals/edited by Carlo Schaerf and David Carlton.
p. cm.
Proceedings of the Third Castiglioncello International Conference on 'Nuclear
Arsenals Reduction: Perspectives and Consequences' held at Castiglioncello, Italy
from 22 to 25 Sept. 1989, and organized by the Union of Scientists for
Disarmament.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-312-06535-5
1. Nuclear arms control-Congresses. 2. Nuclear arms control
-Europe-Congresses. I. Schaerf, Carlo. II. Carlton, David, 1938-
III. Castiglioncello International Conference on 'Nuclear Arsenals Reduction:
Perspectives and Consequences' (3rd : 1989)
IV. Union of Scientists for Disarmament.
JX1974.7.R42 1991
327.1'74--dc20 91-11661
CIP
Contents
List of Tables viii
List of Figures ix
Foreword X
Preface
List of Abbreviations xi
Notes on the Contributors xiv
PART I THE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ARSENALS
OF THE SUPERPOWERS
1 The Soviet-US Strategic Nuclear and Space Talks:
Problems and Prospects
L. Masterkov 3
2 US-Soviet Negotiations: Problems and Prospects
Richard L. Garwin 9
3 The US-Soviet Strategic Arms Reduction Talks:
Status and Major Issues
Paul S. Brown 25
4 START: Finishing an Unfinished Business
Alexei G. Arbatov 37
5 The Future of the Global Strategic Balance
Desmond Ball 43
6 The Future Use of Redundant Weapon-grade Material
Edoardo Amaldi 79
7 Nuclear Warhead Dismantlement and Possible Reuse
in Civil Nuclear Power Reactors
Cesare Silvi 97
v
Vl Contents
PART II ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL SECOND-RANK
NUCLEAR FORCES
8 The Nuclear Arsenals of France, Great Britain and
China
Hugh Beach 109
9 The French Nuclear Force in the Era of Negotiations
Jean Klein 125
10 The International System and Nuclear Deterrence: A
Chinese Perspective
Cui Liru 141
11 Nuclear-weapon Proliferation: Problems and Prospects
Alessandro Pascolini 155
12 Nuclear-weapon Proliferation
Francesco Calogero 191
PART III THE REDUCTION OF CONVENTIONAL
AND THEATRE NUCLEAR FORCES IN
EUROPE
13 The INF Treaty: Provisions and Precedents
Catherine M. Kelleher 207
14 Conventional and Nuclear Forces in Europe: The
Importance of the Vienna Talks
Jonathan Dean 225
15 Conventional Stability and Nuclear-weapon Cuts in
Europe
Carlo Jean 241
16 Deterrence or Disarmament: NATO Must Cope With
the Debate
Antonia Handler Chayes and Caroline R. Russell 257
17 The NATO Summit of May 1989 and Theatre Nuclear
Weapons in Europe
Elmar Schmiihling 271
18 The Lance Saga: A Us-NATO Debate on the
Modernisation of Theatre Nuclear Weapons
Marco De Andreis 281
Contents vii
19 The Vienna Talks and the Italian Armoured Tanks
Series
Luigi Anderlini 297
Index 301
List of Tables
5.1 Allocation of Soviet RISOP warheads to target
categories in generated and non-generated situations,
December 1987 52
5.2 Allocation of US SlOP warheads to target categories
in alert and generated situations, December 1987 55
5.3 US .strategic nuclear forces, December 1987 60
5.4 Soviet strategic nuclear forces, December 1987 62
5.5 US strategic nuclear forces, 1995 66
5.6 Soviet strategic nuclear forces, 1995 68
5.7 US strategic nuclear forces, 50 per cent START 71
5.8 Soviet strategic nuclear forces, 50 per cent START 72
6.1 The world's present nuclear warheads 83
6.2 World nuclear power plant capacity 84
6.3 Preliminary parameters for US nuclear warhead
dismantlement facility 93
7.1 The world's present nuclear warheads (estimate) 100
11.1 Some quantitative aspects of nuclear-explosive
materials 166
11.2 Nuclear energy worldwide, 31 December 1987 169
11.3 Nuclear share of electricity generation, 1986 169
11.4 Research reactors in operation, 31 December 1987 170
11.5 Energy-linked enrichment and reprocessing plants
worldwide 173
13.1 The history of the INF Treaty 209
13.2 Missiles and launchers to be eliminated 213
13.3 Summary of verification sites 215
13.4 INF Treaty: frequency of on-site inspections 216
18.1 US theatre nuclear weapons in Europe (1989) 281
viii
List of Figures
6.1 Nuclear warhead elimination/verification system 89
6.2 Warhead dismantlement 92
11.1 Critical masses 167
11.2 Light Water Reactor fuel cycle 171
13.1 The INF: a chronology 210
ix