Recognize sustained competitive advantage - A comparison in the automotive industry out of an investors’ perspective - Jan Willem Barnhoorn Student Number 4054040 August, 2012 Delft University of Technology Faculty Technology, Policy & Management Graduation section Technology, Strategy & Entrepreneurship Programme: Management of Technology Supervisors: Dr. E. den Hartigh Prof. dr. C.P. van Beers Dr. Ir. W. Lemstra 1 2 Contents Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Problem description .................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Research objective..................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Research questions .................................................................................................. 10 1.4 Research methods ................................................................................................... 11 1.5 Document structure ................................................................................................ 12 Chapter 2. Literature review ............................................................................................. 14 2.1 Sustained competitive advantage ............................................................................ 14 2.2 Strategic theories .................................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 Theory 1: Industrial Organization theory .......................................................... 19 2.2.2 Theory 2: Evolutionary Economics .................................................................... 23 2.2.3 Theory 3: Resource-based view ........................................................................ 27 2.2.4 Theory 4: Dynamic capability theory ................................................................ 30 2.2.5 Consolidated theories ...................................................................................... 33 2.3 Competitive advantage factors ................................................................................ 34 Chapter 3. Proposition development ................................................................................. 37 3.1 Expert survey ........................................................................................................... 37 3.2 Testable and sustainable factors .............................................................................. 39 3.3 Conceptual framework ............................................................................................ 43 Chapter 4. Research methodology .................................................................................... 48 4.1 Domain description ................................................................................................. 48 4.2 Operationalizations ................................................................................................. 51 4.3 Research framework and study sample .................................................................... 56 4.4 Research design ....................................................................................................... 59 4.4.1 Case study protocol ......................................................................................... 59 4.4.2 Conduct of the case study ................................................................................ 62 Chapter 5. Performance of the market leader ................................................................... 65 5.1 Correction factors .................................................................................................... 65 5.2 Financial performance ............................................................................................. 70 5.3 Factor performance ................................................................................................. 76 5.3.1 Market share ................................................................................................... 76 5.3.2 Economies of scale ........................................................................................... 82 3 5.3.3 Organizational age ........................................................................................... 89 5.3.4 Corporate reputation ....................................................................................... 91 5.3.5 Financial resources........................................................................................... 95 5.3.6 R&D Intensity ................................................................................................. 104 5.4 Combination of factors .......................................................................................... 114 5.5 Consolidated factor performance .......................................................................... 118 5.6 Superior factor performance ................................................................................. 120 Chapter 6. Sustainable performance ............................................................................... 122 Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................ 126 7.1 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 126 7.2 Managerial implications and recommendations ..................................................... 128 7.3 Suggestions for further research ............................................................................ 129 7.4 Reflection .............................................................................................................. 130 4 PART I – INTRODUCTION 5 Chapter 1. Introduction One of the fundamental questions in the field of strategic management is how firms achieve and maintain competitive advantage1. Since the existence of strategic management as a research field (1950s and 60s), various theories and models have been suggested in order to answer this fundamental question. However, despite all intends, no general and genuine excepted explanation has yet been found to address the origin and drivers of competitive advantage. This might result from the fact that strategic management is a complex discipline of the social sciences that has to cope with – among others – ambiguity, predictions, non- objectivity and a high degree of individual judgment(Nag, Hambrick et al. 2007). Therefore a universal and widely accepted framework concerning competitive advantage is not yet expected. Although a lot of research has been done, and a growing number of factors that influence competitive advantage are being understood, it appears that the 21st century is not working in its favor. The pace of change and complexity has skyrocketed in the last decades. On the one hand because more companies have been founded and entered the global marketplace. On the other hand because knowledge creation and technology has been growing exponentially and constantly changes the business dynamics. As a research of IBM summarizes the three main conclusions of 1500 CEOs around the world: 1) Complexity is escalating, 2) enterprises are not equipped to cope with this complexity, and 3) creativity is now the single most important leadership competency(IBM 2010). Despite this increasing complexity, the strategic management literature grew greatly and added knowledge on the sources of competitive advantage. However, to a lesser extent attention is paid on how investors could capitalize on that knowledge by proving measurements that might predict the ability of a firm to maintain its competitive advantage. It is in this context that we ask the question how the long-term investor is able to judge and analyze the ability of a market leader to maintain its sustained competitive advantage over time. This research is the first step to study and address the question how a long-term investor might be able to recognize sustained competitive advantage. First of all, the problem description, the research objectives and questions are defined in order to delineate the scope and boundaries of the study. The relevance of the research is explained and knowledge gaps are identified. Second, an extensive literature review will be conducted and the different theories and factors regarding competitive advantage will be delineated. Thereafter propositions will be developed and the methodology of the research thoroughly discussed. An empirical study will follow and finally the outcomes, conclusions and recommendations will be presented. 1 For a review of the fundamental questions in Strategic Management see Rumelt, R. P. and D. J. Teece (1994). Fundamental issues in strategy: A research agenda, Harvard Business Press.. 6 1.1 Problem description The long-term investor seeks investments in outstanding companies and intents to hold that investments at least ten or twenty years from now. Instead of speculating on the capital gains on the stock market, the long-term investor favors the steady payment of dividend and thus pays minor attention to the stock price developments of its investment (Graham 1949).With this investment paradigm, the long-term investor circumvents the ‘sins of investing’ that have proven to be unfavorable for acceptable investor return: short-term horizon, overtrading and playing the trend (Montier 2006). The search for outstanding companies drives the long-term investor in the corner of market leaders, as market leaders are known for being among the best performing companies in their respected industry (Treacy and Wiersema 1997). Moreover, the long-term investor seeks market leaders that are ought to have a sustained competitive advantage to ensure the continuous stream of dividend within his long-term holding period (Fisher 1997). However, the recognition of this sustained competitive advantage is directly the greatest limitation for the long-term investor. The analytical tools that are currently available to assess a company’s ability to maintain its competitive advantage are rather poor as will be shown in the next paragraph. It therefore hinders the analytical judgment of the investor with respect to competitive advantage. In this state of the world, the analytical tool for investors to analyze whether a company enjoys a competitive advantage over its competitors is based on higher financial performance measures in terms of return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) or return on sales (ROS). Empirical evidence shows that competitive forces should drive relative high profits towards more normal levels (Mueller 1986; Jacobsen 1988; Rumelt 1991; Rumelt 2005), although some research also reported exceptions to this trend (Mueller 1986; Muller 1990). The result of relative high profits is generally reflected in higher financial performance figures of the firm. Hence, investors assume that if companies report higher financial performance figures compared to their direct competitors for a considerable amount of time, it should intrinsically enjoy a kind of competitive advantage. That is, when a company is able to persist relative high profits over time compared to its direct competitors (Hunt and Morgan 1995). Despite the usefulness of these financial performance figures, two main limitations could be identified. First, above-average financial performance is normally the result of having competitive advantage(Barney 1997). Knowing that, the long-term investor is not measuring the sources of competitive advantage but rather an effect of it. Therefore, this might not be a good predictor of the ability to maintain competitive advantage. Second, financial performance figures only measure whether a company had a competitive advantage, although it fails to recognize whether a company is able to maintain its competitive advantage. In other words, the current analytical tools used by investors only reflects historical achievements but lacks a predictable assessment about the future of that competitive advantage. It is the aim of this research to close this knowledge gap by providing investors with new measures to assess the ability of the market leader to maintain its competitive advantage in the future. The practical relevance of this research is thus to broaden the limited measurement possibilities of sustaining competitive advantage. To reach that goal, the knowledge and research methods of the strategic management school will be consulted. 7 A way of doing research on competitive advantage by strategic management scholars is by asking oneself why a particular company is performing better than others. This can be done by determining the average performance of an industry by, for instance, using performance indicators as return of investments (ROI), return of assets (ROA) and return of sales (ROS). Thereafter, a pattern may appear which distinct companies that consistently perform above the industry average, and companies that perform below that average. It is in this difference in which strategic management scholars are interested. As a result, the above-average performing companies could be analyzed to answer the question what these companies do differently than their less performing competitors. These differences might then be explained in terms of sources of competitive advantage. Thus, in sum, researchers use financial industry data to determine which companies perform above average and intend to investigate the sources of that performance which might be competitive advantage. These sources of competitive advantage might be good indicators in the search for predicting future-oriented measurement that could be used by investors to assess the ability to maintain competitive advantage. This study intends to address the research problem as presented in this chapter by using a similar research perspective. The empirical support we aim to generated with this study - that a specific resource or capability may enable a firm to sustain a competitive advantage in a particular industry setting - contributes to the academic value of the research as it brings scholars closer to the answer on how firms attain and maintain competitive advantage. That being said, the research also contributes towards new academic value via exploring generic sources of competitive advantage within a specific industry that might be used to recognize the ability to maintain competitive advantage. That is, an academic contribution is made by investigating sources of competitive advantage that might hold true regardless the enterprise-level strategies of a firm (Newbert 2008). However, some limitations to such contributions apply. Since industries and their characteristics defer significantly, one could not expect that the same factors that enable competitive advantage in one industry, also hold true in another. For that reason it is necessary to narrow the scope of this research to a single industry. The most practical and academic value is captured when the research will be conducted in a dynamic industry, in which the search for attaining new forms of competitive advantage is a continuity. Hence, the research will constrain itself to the automotive industry. 8 1.2 Research objective The objective of the research project is to contribute to the analytical judgment of the long- term investor on whether the market leader in the automotive industry is able to maintain its competitive advantage over its competitors, by analyzing a number of factors that have an impact on a firm’s competitive position, and testing these factors with publicly accessible information of the firm. The deliverable is a list of empirically investigated factors that have a plausible positive effect on the ability of the market leader to maintain its competitive advantage. 9 1.3 Research questions In order to achieve the research objective, the following main research question is formulated and split into five separate sub questions. Research questions; How could the ability to sustain competitive advantage of a market leader in the automotive industry over its direct competitors be measured by using publicly accessible information? a. Which factors that positively influence the ability to maintain competitive advantage are suggested by literature? b. Are the factors suggested by literature measurable by using publicly accessible information? c. Does the market leader in the automotive industry have a consistent superior financial performance over its direct competitors? d. Is the market leader in the automotive industry performing better in the factors that have a positive impact on a firm’s ability to maintain competitive advantage over its direct competitors? e. Can the factors that have a positive relation on the market leader’s consistent superior performance be considered sustained in the automotive industry? 10
Description: