Recent Developments in Statistics and Data Science: SPE2021, Évora, Portugal, October 13–16

364 Pages·2022·7.228 MB·English

by  Regina Bispo, Lígia Henriques-Rodrigues, Russell Alpizar-Jara, Miguel de Carvalho

Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics
Regina Bispo
Lígia Henriques-Rodrigues
Russell Alpizar-Jara
Miguel de Carvalho   Editors
Recent
Developments
in Statistics and
Data Science
SPE2021, Évora, Portugal, October 13–16
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics &
Statistics
Volume 398
This book series features volumes composed of selected contributions from
workshops and conferences in all areas of current research in mathematics and
statistics,includingdatascience,operationsresearchandoptimization.Inaddition
to an overall evaluation of the interest, scientific quality, and timeliness of each
proposalatthehandsofthepublisher,individualcontributionsareallrefereedtothe
highqualitystandardsofleadingjournalsinthefield.Thus,thisseriesprovidesthe
researchcommunitywithwell-edited,authoritativereportsondevelopmentsinthe
mostexcitingareasofmathematicalandstatisticalresearchtoday.
· ·
Regina Bispo Lígia Henriques-Rodrigues
·
Russell Alpizar-Jara Miguel de Carvalho
Editors
Recent Developments
in Statistics and Data Science
SPE2021, Évora, Portugal, October 13–16
Editors
ReginaBispo LígiaHenriques-Rodrigues
NOVASchoolofScience UniversityofÉvora
andTechnology Évora,Portugal
Caparica,Portugal
MigueldeCarvalho
RussellAlpizar-Jara UniversityofEdinburgh
UniversityofÉvora Edinburgh,UK
Évora,Portugal
ISSN 2194-1009 ISSN 2194-1017 (electronic)
SpringerProceedingsinMathematics&Statistics
ISBN 978-3-031-12765-6 ISBN 978-3-031-12766-3 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12766-3
MathematicsSubjectClassification:62-06,62P10,62P25,62R07
©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicensetoSpringerNature
SwitzerlandAG2022
Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsaresolelyandexclusivelylicensedbythePublisher,whether
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Organization
SPE2021wasorganizedbytheUniversityofÉvoraandbythePortugueseStatistical
Society(SPE).
ExecutiveCommitee
RussellAlpizar-Jara(President),UniversityofÉvora(PT)
DulceGomes,UniversityofÉvora(PT)
LígiaHenriques-Rodrigues,UniversityofÉvora(PT)
PatríciaA.Filipe,ISCTE,UniversityInstituteofLisbon(PT)
ScientificCommittee
MigueldeCarvalho(President),UniversityofEdinburgh(UK)
FátimaFerreira,UniversityofTrás-os-monteeAltoDouro(PT)
JoãoAndradeeSilva,UniversityofLisbon(PT)
LuísMeira-Machado,UniversityofMinho(PT)
MarcoCosta,UniversityofAveiro(PT)
MariaEduardaSilva,UniversityofOporto(PT)
MaríliaAntunes,UniversityofLisbon(PT)
PaulaBrito,UniversityofOporto(PT)
ReginaBispo,NovaUniversityofLisbon(PT)
RosárioOliveira,UniversityofLisbon(PT)
RussellAlpizar-Jara,UniversityofÉvora(PT)
v
vi Organization
PartnersandSponsoringInstitutions
InternationalStatisticalAssociations:
(cid:129)
BernoulliSociety
(cid:129)
BrazilianStatisticalAssociation
(cid:129)
CWS(CaucusforWomeninStatistics)
(cid:129)
FENStatS(FederationoftheEuropeanNationalStatisticalSocieties)
(cid:129)
ISBA(InternationalSocietyforBayesianAnalysis)
(cid:129)
RBras(BrazilianRegionInternationalBiometricSociety)
(cid:129)
SGaPEIO(SociedadeGalegaparaapromocióndaEstatísticaedaInvestigación
deOperacions)
NationalStatisticalAssociations:
(cid:129)
CLAD(PortugueseAssociationforClassificationandDataAnalysis)
IndustryandOfficialStatistics:
(cid:129)
GADES(DataAnalysisSolutions)
(cid:129)
INE(StatisticsPortugal)
(cid:129)
PSE—YourDataSpecialists
(cid:129)
PORDATA—EstatísticassobrePortugaleEuropa
RefereesforProceedings
AnaFreitas
AndyLynch
CarlosA.Braumann
ClaraCordeiro
DulceGomes
FilipeMarques
InêsSousa
IsabelPereira
JessicaSilvaLomba
KamilTurkman
LiseteSousa
LuísMachado
M.FilomenaTeodoro
ManuelaNeves
MarcoCosta
MariaAntóniaTurkman
MariadeFátimaFerreira
MariaIvetteGomes
MariaPolidoro
Organization vii
MaríliaAntunes
MaurizioSanarico
NunoSepúlveda
PatríciadeZeaBermudez
PatríciaFilipe
PaulaBrito
PauloC.Rodrigues
PauloM.M.Rodrigues
PedroCampos
RaquelMenezes
RitaSousa
SoraiaPereira
TiagoMarques
VandaLourenço
Welcome Message from the Editors
Dearauthors,referees,andreadersof
RecentDevelopmentsinStatisticsandDataScience,
It is a great pleasure to welcome you to the proceedings of the XXV Congress of
thePortugueseStatisticalSociety—SPE2021—heldduring13–16October2021at
Évora,Portugal.Thiswasthefirst-time,ever,onlineSPEconference,anditgathered
morethan200delegatesfromallovertheworld.
ThemeetingwashostedbyUniversityofÉvora,Portugal,incollaborationwiththe
PortugueseStatisticalSociety,andwehadafantasticprogramincluding4plenary
lectures, 31 sessions, and 22 posters. A variety of societies had virtual rooms at
SPE2021includingBernoulliSociety,BrazilianStatisticalAssociation,Caucusfor
Women in Statistics, and the International Society for Bayesian Analysis—just to
name a few. Institutional members of the Portuguese Statistical Society were also
represented(e.g.StatisticsPortugal,BancodePortugal,PORDATA).Formoredetails
onthemeetingplease,seewww.spe2021.uevora.pt/en/.
RecentDevelopmentsinStatisticsandDataSciencehighlightssomeselected
contributions that were presented at SPE 2021. This volume covers a broad range
oftopicslyingattheinterfacebetweenStatisticsandDataScience,suchasapplied
statistics,computationalstatistics,extremesandoutliers,medicalstatistics,modeling
timeseriesandstochasticprocesses,anddatavisualization,amongothers.
And speaking of visualization, Fig. 1 depicts a word cloud of all the titles and
abstractsinthisvolume.Whilethischartisnotasubstituteforatableofcontents,
itdoesnotsummarizetheorderbywhichthearticlesappearinthisissue!itoffers
a visual roadmap of what is to be found ahead. Given the broad scope of topics
covered,wehaveoptedforclusteringarticlesaccordingtothesimilarityoftopics.
ix
x WelcomeMessagefromtheEditors
injuries
renewableanalyseportuguese
robfeuaornsteinuhlenbeckmsmttuonpiemrforecastingdehchoiceresaeesdpursassumptionsissvelgirrgoodlsgoduicicnnequationscoviloreicevgarnueeenenopropertiesettsrpfdtptmurnefeloudperyrlikelihoodecsbdecedeaseveralcehteleastaurafstethaetaasmeasuresfsicsiedpogtrmorurypeerciewnapgevaluatemtndsthrpoopsnceleindexsntpmimapoissondttvewspctretifiuoceresultsmayatadofirstdoorsetcontextaterrsolarplitneianewccrmnumberissepcetxrnltnfdiagnosisiirtsgunigiinwmptpoebcceestatisticalminggrrferealusueaotoieiseeaicfemtsrbpsiseerncaelrdudoordertewellwgraaaoftenetlttramanlnibdmhtnbtorswiiysialsociidonaasftsnmonusseatnooitflampointpiuiornndcduplicatezdfmnrttamceacedoeoeoaairalctddaaabiucmlillarstofsmpieroetooacgtueklnabesrmaorsrbyltdsgrisoxdxsrslenmoiaiotsipipeclysuprnmnsirvemraaetxiworkaiaaaytinmderearsgtrtstppigernsmastrlaeiieauruotnilaesoerobustnaormsnaetalsdthreeosadluselacrateoedneaaeweightedmcorrelationcprocesssnmlpiibtnacdpieeypassociationrmglcpeepxrycanaadoptionmutationhrscomtranasrbaedecanceraluelnaetstiimaymttelnrdgvsoelnisireseriesscgeometrictedfaemrererehnfnphegenrsproblemlnroegiayetadaossimulationdreadingedtamarkedtnrpitassvsdeobservationseptedstatisticsicedsdoorlparametertheoryonntiooofeponncfracmetscategapconsumptionsemiparametricrcdistanceaathriniebehvmatinformationegsusinesequencingaiosndtatoltseiitpfnciestatisticianscltiaalsaceucormultivariatesslloapeobsinddcdependentdfondplsficeelesscuoayiopatterndnesecsucsnitaeetsbtbehtperformediistfirrloidcúieyloeegiantblhdylalyl
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Fig.1 Wordcloudsummarizingalltitles,keywords,andabstractsofcontributionsincludedinthis
issue
And, as the tag cloud in Fig. 1 reveals, data are the common denominator across
mostcontributions.
We are indebted to many people. First, we would like to thank the authors for
their contributions and to everyone involved in the peer-review process who did a
superbjobonmeetingtightdeadlinesinathoughtfulmanner.Theyallworkedhard
so that the community keeps breaking new ground, and should be proud of their
achievements.WearealsoindebtedtoSpringerfortheirexcellentcollaborationon
theproductionofthisissue,andtotheScientificCommitteeandkeynotespeakers
fortheircontributionstothemeeting.Lastbutnottheleast,ourwordsofthanksgo
totheorganizersofSPE2021fortheiroutstandingwork,andtothecommunityof
thePortugueseStatisticalSocietyfortheircontinuous,andyetunbounded!support.
March2022 ReginaBispo
LígiaHenriques-Rodrigues
RussellAlpizar-Jara
MigueldeCarvalho