Reaching Net Zero: What It Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis PDF
Preview Reaching Net Zero: What It Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis
R N Z EACHING ET ERO R N Z EACHING ET ERO What It Takes to Solve the Global Climate Crisis WILLIAM D. FLETCHER Rockwell International Corporation, (Retired) Costa Mesa, CA, United States CRAIG B. SMITH DMJM1H&N, (Retired) Los Angeles, CA, United States Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates Copyright©2020ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans, electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageand retrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseek permission,furtherinformationaboutthePublisher’spermissionspoliciesandour arrangementswithorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearanceCenterandtheCopyright LicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/permissions. Thisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightby thePublisher(otherthanasmaybenotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchand experiencebroadenourunderstanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices, ormedicaltreatmentmaybecomenecessary. Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgein evaluatingandusinganyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribed herein.Inusingsuchinformationormethodstheyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafety andthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessionalresponsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,or editors,assumeanyliabilityforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatter ofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperationofanymethods, products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein. BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress ISBN:978-0-12-823366-5 ForInformationonallElsevierpublicationsvisitour websiteathttps://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals Publisher:CandiceJanco AcquisitionsEditor:PeterJ.Llewellyn EditorialProjectManager:ChiaraGiglio ProductionProjectManager:KumarAnbazhagan CoverDesigner:MarkRogers TypesetbyMPSLimited,Chennai,India Contents ListofFigures xi ListofTables xiii Photographs xv Preface:Whyreadthisbook? xvii Acknowledgments xxiii Acronyms xxv 1. Introduction 1 Shouldwebeconcernedaboutglobalwarming? 1 Whataboutsolarradiation? 2 Thegreenhouseeffect 2 Whatarethegreenhousegases? 3 Whatarethesignsofglobalwarming? 5 Whatarethedangersofglobalwarming? 5 Cananythingbedoneaboutglobalwarming? 7 2. Addressing global warming 9 Latencyisahugeproblem 11 Globalwarmingisnotobvioustothevastmajorityofpeople 12 Theglobaleconomyispoweredbyfossilfuels 12 Thereisaneedforunprecedentedandperhapsunachievableinternational cooperation 13 Allofuswillhavetobewillingtoacceptchanges 14 U.S.participationisessential 14 Whatcanbedone? 14 Part I 3. The earth as a system 21 Incidentsolarradiation 21 Milankovitchcycles 23 Moreaboutthegreenhouseeffect 25 Carboncycle 26 Temperatureincrease 30 4. Fundamental drivers of global warming 31 Globalpopulationrising 31 v vi Contents Inequities:theearlyroleoftheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom 31 ThepivotalpositionoftheUnitedStates 33 Needtoconsiderbothabsoluteandpercapitaemissions 34 Grossdomesticproductgrowthandenergyusearerelated 36 Moreenergywillberequiredbydevelopingcountries 37 5. How do we know globalwarming is real? 39 Globalwarmingisnotanewidea 39 CO emissionsarerising 40 2 Earth’stemperatureisrising 40 CorrelationofincreasingglobaltemperaturewithincreasingatmosphericCO 41 2 Oceantemperaturesarerising 42 Sealevelsarerising 43 Oceanacidificationisoccurring 45 AmessagefromtheArctic? 45 Glaciers,icecaps,andseaicearemelting 47 Thepermafrostismelting 54 Extremeweathereventsareincreasing 54 Desertsandtropicsareexpanding 55 Risingtemperaturesarecausingplant,animal,andhumanmigration 58 Earlywarningsignsofglobalwarming:aCaliforniacasehistory 58 6. How do we know man-made CO is the issue? 61 2 Wheredoman-madegreenhousegasescomefrom? 62 WhathappenstoCO emissions? 65 2 Thesignificanceofcarbon-14 68 HistoricemissionssincetheIndustrialRevolution 70 IncreasesinatmosphericCO correlateswithfossilfueluse 72 2 Whatisyourcarbonfootprint? 73 7. What are the effects of globalwarming? 75 Latency—howlongbeforeeffectsshowup? 76 Climatechangeversusweather 76 Earth’stemperaturewillcontinuetorise 78 Airpollutionwillincrease 79 Sealevelsrisecausingflooding 79 Oceansbecomemoreacidic 83 Glaciers,icecaps,andseaicemelt 84 Subsidenceoccursandpermafrostmelts 85 Contents vii Desertsandtropicsexpand 87 Speciesmigrationandextinction 87 Frequencyandseverityofstorms 89 Impactonagriculture,droughts,lossofcropland,andwildfires 90 Healthproblemswillbemoresevere 92 Couldglobalwarmingcauseafinancialcrisisorsomeotherfinancialproblem? 94 Nationalsecurityimplications 95 Migrationscausedbyclimatechange 96 Tippingpoints:unanticipatedchangescanoccur 97 8. International efforts to addressglobal warming 99 Earlyefforts 99 TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange 100 TheParisAgreement 101 IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangespecialreports 102 HistoryofIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeglobalwarming objectives 103 Part II 9. What would it take to reach net zero? 107 IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangealternativescenarios 107 Whatwouldittake? 110 AretheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangescenariosrealistic? 111 Carbonremoval 115 Whatisamorelikelyscenario? 115 Arewetoolatealready? 116 Doingnothingisnotanoption 117 Whatwillhappenifwedonothing? 118 Thehighcostofdoingnothing 121 10. Energy alternatives 123 Fossilfuels:coal,oil,andnaturalgas 125 Nuclearpower 128 Renewableenergy 129 11. Uniqueproblemsof major contributors to global warming 149 WhatcanwelearnfromGermany? 149 TheUnitedStatesfailstotakealeadershipposition 153 viii Contents China—Willitbetheleader? 156 India—largepopulation,littleenergy 158 Japan—strongtechnologicalcapabilities 159 Russia—maynotbeaplayer 160 Observations 161 12. Why is global warming such adifficultproblemto solve? 163 Theneedforunprecedented,perhapsunachievable,globalcooperation 163 Fossilfuelsareheavilysubsidized 164 Educatingthepublic 164 Themediahavenotdealtfairlywithglobalwarming 165 Publicuncertainty 167 Apositivemessageisneeded 169 Publicsupportforgovernmentaction 169 Whyitishardtoreplacefossilfuels? 170 Solvingtechnicalchallenges 171 Theneedforstrongeconomies 173 Understandingclimatechangeskepticism 174 Recognizingpoliticalleaderscanmakemistakes 176 Acknowledgingthatfailureisapossibility 176 13. Somesuccesses and failures 179 ThePermianBasin,arenewableenergypowerhouse 179 1970soilpricehikes 181 Automobileemissions 184 Holeintheozonelayer 185 Cigarettesmokingandcancer 186 Europe’spushfordieselvehicles 187 NuclearpowerintheUnitedStates 188 Isthereafuturefornuclearpower? 191 Ethanol 195 High-speedrail 197 Lessonslearned 198 Part III 14. Action Plan:efficiency, power, transportation, and land use 201 Doweneedanothermoonshot? 201 Thechallengesofaglobalapproach 202 Contents ix AnActionPlan,assumingwecannotgettonetzeroby2050 203 CantheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange’sgoalofkeepingglobal warmingunder2(cid:1)Cbemet? 214 Whycan'twedobetter? 216 Silverbullets 218 Mitigation 219 Carbonfee 223 15. Can itbe done? 227 Thetrendisourfriend 227 Canrenewableenergypowertheworld? 230 Canwindpowertheworld? 232 Whatwoulditcost? 233 Canweaffordit? 234 16. The wayforward 239 Thefuturecanbebright 240 Toppriorities 241 Governmentactions 242 Actionsforconcernedcitizens 250 Actionsforindustry 253 Whatnext? 257 Afterword 259 Furtherreading 261 Usefulreports 263 Usefulwebsites 265 Part IV Appendices Appendix1:Abbreviations,units,andconversionfactors 269 Appendix2:TheamountofCO intheatmosphere:sourcesandsinks 275 2 Appendix3:WilltheIPCCgoalof450ppmbemet? 277 Appendix4:KeyparametersusedtoformulateActionPlan 279 Appendix5:Floodandsearisemitigation 285 Appendix6:Financialmeasures 289 Appendix7:Activistandlobbyinggroups,litigationexamples 293 Appendix8:Excerptsfromcorporateannualreports 301 Index 307 List of Figures Figure 2.1 An example of latency 13 Figure 3.1 Solar energysources and sinks 22 Figure 3.2 CO and the earth’s temperature gradually changed in 24 2 tandem Figure 3.3 Correlation of recent temperature anomaly withCO rise 27 2 Figure 3.4 The carboncycle diagram (anthropogenic data as of 28 mid-1990s) Figure 3.5 Whatwould a gigametric ton look like? 29 Figure 3.6 Visualizing big numbers 29 Figure 3.7 Rise inglobalaverage temperature 30 Figure 4.1 Population growthand globalenergy demand 32 Figure 4.2 U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 33 Figure 4.3 TotalU.S. greenhouse gas emissions byeconomic sector 34 (2016) Figure 4.4 Per capita CO emissions versusGDP percapita 35 2 Figure 4.5 GDP and CO per capita 36 2 Figure 4.6 Three countries plus theEU accounted for over half of CO 37 2 emissions Figure 5.1 Global atmospheric temperature rate of change 41 Figure 5.2 Average global sea surface temperature, 1880(cid:1)2015 43 Figure 5.3 Average sea level rise 44 Figure 5.4 Greenlandice melt 49 Figure 5.5 Reduction in Greenland ice mass 49 Figure 5.6 Arctic sea ice, winter versus summer 50 Figure 5.7A Arctic sea ice, 1979 51 Figure 5.7B Arctic sea ice, 2014 51 Figure 5.8 Deviation insea ice extent (Mkm2) 52 Figure 5.9 The ColumbiaGlacier, Alaska.Left:2009. Right: 2015 53 Figure 6.1 CO gas components 66 2eq Figure 6.2 Global CO emissions by world region, 2014 67 2 Figure 6.3 Where doemissions go? 68 Figure 6.4 Global carbondioxide emissionsfrom fossil fuels 71 Figure 9.1 Global emissions of CO in2018 108 2eq Figure 9.2 IPCCglobal warmingscenariosand projections 109 Figure 9.3 IPCCscenarios 113 Figure 9.4 Example of overshoot and return to temperature target 113 Figure 9.5 IPCCgoal comparedto business asusual 116 Figure 9.6 Whathappens ifno action is taken? 119 Figure 10.1 Global energy consumption byfuel 123 Figure 10.2 Global energy consumption bysector 124 xi
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