Contributors to This Volume Luca L. Bonatti Natasha Z. Kirkham E. Bonawitz Tamar Kushnir Sophie Bridgers Jeff Loucks Daphna Buchsbaum James Negen Nicolo Cesana-Arlotti Marjorie Rhodes Colin R. Dawson Barbara W. Sarnecka Stephanie Denison Laura Schulz S. Denison Elizabeth Seiver Baxter S. Eaves David M. Sobel Gyorgy Gergely Jessica A. Sommerville LouAnn Gerken Erno Téglas Alison Gopnik Michaela B. Upshaw T.L. Griffiths Fei Xu Pierre Jacob VOLUME FORTY THREE RATIONAL CONSTRUCTIVISM IN COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT Volume Editors FEI XU Professor, Department of Psychology, 3423 Tolman Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1650 TAMAR KUSHNIR Assistant Professor, Department of Human Development, Cornell University, M Van Rensselaer Hall, Room G62B, Ithaca, NY 14853-4401 Serial Editor JANETTE B. BENSON Department of Psychology, University of Denver, Denver, Colorado, USA AMSTERDAM(cid:129)BOSTON(cid:129)HEIDELBERG(cid:129)LONDON NEWYORK(cid:129)OXFORD(cid:129)PARIS(cid:129)SANDIEGO SANFRANCISCO(cid:129)SINGAPORE(cid:129)SYDNEY(cid:129)TOKYO AcademicPressisanimprintofElsevier AcademicPressisanimprintofElsevier 225WymanStreet,Waltham,MA02451,USA 525BStreet,Suite1900,SanDiego,CA92101-4495,USA Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,TheNetherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,Oxford,OX51GB,UK 32,JamestownRoad,LondonNW17BY,UK Firstedition2012 Copyright(cid:1)2012ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedin anyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,orotherwise, withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher. 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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-397919-3 ISSN:0065-2407(Series) ForinformationonallAcademicPresspublications visitourwebsiteatstore.elsevier.com PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 121314 10987654321 CONTRIBUTORS Luca L.Bonatti ICREA, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Espan~a E.Bonawitz DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley,Berkeley,California,USA Sophie Bridgers Institute of HumanDevelopment, Department of Psychology, University of California at Berkeley,Tolman Hall, Berkeley,CA 94720,USA Daphna Buchsbaum Institute of HumanDevelopment, Department of Psychology, University of California at Berkeley,Tolman Hall, Berkeley,CA 94720,USA Nicolo(cid:2) Cesana-Arlotti ICREA, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Espan~a Colin R.Dawson School of information: Science, Technology, and Arts 1040E.4th StreetUniversity of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0077, USA Stephanie Denison DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,Berkeley,CA,94720,USA S.Denison DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley,Berkeley,California,USA Baxter S.Eaves Jr. Department ofPsychological and BrainSciences 317Life Sciences Building,University of Louisville, Louisville, Ky40292,USA Gyo€rgy Gergely Department of Cognitive Science,Cognitive Development Center, CentralEuropean University, 1015Budapest, Hattyu(cid:3) u.14,Hungary LouAnn Gerken Department of Psychology 1503E University Blvd.University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0068, USA Alison Gopnik Institute of HumanDevelopment, Department of Psychology, University of California at Berkeley, TolmanHall, Berkeley, CA 94720,USA T. L.Griffiths DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley,Berkeley,California,USA Pierre Jacob InstitutJeanNicod,UMR8129,CNRS/ENS/EHESS,ecoleNormaleSupérieure,29,rue d’Ulm,75005 Paris,France j ix x Contributors Natasha Z. Kirkham Centre for Brain and Cognitive Development, BirkbeckCollege, University of London, London,England, UK Tamar Kushnir Department of HumanDevelopment, Cornell University,Ithaca, NY 14853 JeffLoucks Department of Psychology &Center forChild andFamily Well-being, University of Washington, Campus Box351525, Seattle, WA98195 JamesNegen Department of Cognitive Sciences,University of California, Irvine,CA 92697-5100 Marjorie Rhodes Department of Psychology, New YorkUniversity, NewYork, NY 10003 Barbara W.Sarnecka Department of Cognitive Sciences,University of California, Irvine,CA 92697-5100 Laura Schulz Department of Brain and CognitiveSciences, Massachusetts Instituteof Technology, Boston,Massachusetts Elizabeth Seiver Institute ofHuman Development, Department of Psychology, University of California at Berkeley, TolmanHall, Berkeley, CA94720, USA Patrick Shafto Department ofPsychological andBrain Sciences 317Life SciencesBuilding, Universityof Louisville, Louisville, Ky40292,USA David M.Sobel Department of Cognitive, Linguistic, andPsychological Sciences, BrownUniversity, Providence, Rhode Island,USA JessicaA.Sommerville Department of Psychology &Center forChild andFamily Well-being, University of Washington, Campus Box351525, Seattle, WA98195 Erno Tégl(cid:3)as CognitiveDevelopmentCentre,CentralEuropeanUniversity,H-1015Budapest,Hungary Michaela B. Upshaw Department of Psychology &Center forChild andFamily Well-being, University of Washington, Campus Box351525, Seattle, WA98195 Fei Xu DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,Berkeley,CA,94720,USA PREFACE Fei Xu1 and Tamar Kushnir2 1UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley 2CornellUniversity What Is Rational Constructivism? The main goal of this volume is to compile a set of papers synthesizing new research from the last few years, under the umbrella term “a rational constructivistapproach”tothestudyofcognitivedevelopment.Thepapers come in three flavors: syntheses of a body of empirical work and its theo- reticalunderpinnings,explicationsofhowcomputationalmodels(especially Bayesian models) may help us understand cognitive development, and philosophical reflections on the research enterprise. Muchofthisworkwasmotivatedbytheideathatweneedanapproach to cognitive development that is neither extreme empiricism nor extreme nativism. Nativist theories have primarily focused on specifying innate concepts and core knowledge systems, and how abstract, symbolic repre- sentations underpin notonly ourmature conceptualsystem butalsothat of infants and young children (Chomsky, 1988; Fodor, 1975; Pinker, 1994; Spelke, 1994), whereas empiricist theories have focused on specifying associative learning mechanisms and the graded nature of our learning and representations (Elman et al., 1996; Karmiloff-Smith, 1992; Smith, 2001). The inadequacy of both extreme nativist and extreme empiricist views has led researchers to try to find a substantive middle ground (e.g. Johnson, 2010; Newcombe, 2010). The new perspective on cognitive development represented in this volume has been dubbed “rational constructivism” (e.g. Xu, 2007; Xu, Dewar, & Perfors, 2009; Xu & Griffiths, 2011), as it blends elements of a constructivist account of development with the account of learning as rational statistical inference that underlies probabilistic models of cognition (Chater&Oaksford,2008;Griffiths,Chater,Kemp,Perfors,&Tenenbaum, 2010; Tenenbaum, Kemp, Griffiths, & Goodman 2011). Although the workisstillquitenewandopinionsdiffer,herearesometenetsthatwethink unite the rational constructivist approach. (cid:129) Humanlearning is best describedas a form of rational Bayesian inference: the learner starts with some prior probability j xi xii Preface distributionoverasetofhypotheses,andcomputestheposterior probabilities of these hypotheses given the strength of the evidence as given by Bayes rule. This is a computational level characterization; that is, it describes the inferential process without making a priori commitments to how that process is instantiated at the algorithmic level (Marr, 1982). (cid:129) Hypotheses can be represented as probability distributions. Inferences are probabilistic and graded, so hypotheses are not simply ruled in or out. Instead, learners may be more or less confident about the various hypotheses. (cid:129) Learners represent the world not just by forming associations andcorrelations,butbyconstructingabstract,causal,generativemodels. (cid:129) Learners acquire new concepts and biases in the course of development; the newly acquired knowledge becomes part of the prior and thus constrains subsequent learning. (cid:129) Domain-generallearningmechanismsmaygiverisetodomain- specific knowledge. (cid:129) Representations may differ in their strengths; some support predictions, actions, and explanations, while others may not. (cid:129) Learners are actively engaged in the learning process, from infancy to adulthood. How Is the Rational Constructivist View Different from Other Views Weareintheearlydaysofdevelopinganewtheory,andourthinkingisstill evolving. In terms of how to characterize human knowledge, rational constructivism fully endorses the view that human knowledge is best characterized by symbols and rules (see e.g. Fodor & Pylyshyn, 1988; Marcus, 2001; Pinker & Prince, 1988) and human learning is best captured by inferential mechanisms, not just associative learning mechanisms. At the same time, rational constructivism endorses the view that early learning is statistical: the inferences and representations may be graded and partial, much like what has been instantiated in neural networks (e.g. Elman et al., 1996; Colunga & Smith, 2005; Karmiloff-Smith, 1992). This view also departs from the traditional Piagetian view of develop- ment (Piaget, 1954), in at least two waysddevelopment does not progress throughstages,drivenbyqualitativechangesinthechild’slogicalcapacities, and development does not start with sensorimotor primitives and a lack of Preface xiii differentiation between the child and the world (see Carey, 2009, for discussion). Instead, the construction of new concepts and new learning biases are driven by a rational inferential learning process. It remains to be seen how these inferential learning mechanisms account for the rapidly developing domain knowledge in infants and how we might want to rethink the issue of characterizing the initial state. Some Answers, More Questions The chapters in this book investigate the nature, power, and limits of these earlyinductivelearningmechanisms.Theyareatestamenttotheremarkable progress that has been made, as well as to the number of unanswered questions that remain. These questions are posed, and answers and specu- lations are offered by many contributors: 1) Howsophisticatedareinfantsandyoungchildren’sprobabilistic inferencemechanisms?Whatarethelimits?Thisquestionisthe mainfocusofChapters1,2,and4,allofwhichprovideevidence for early rational inferential (as opposed to associative) learning. 2) Bayesian models provide good analyses of many aspects of cognitivedevelopmentatthecomputationallevel,butwhatare the algorithms and how are they implemented in the neural hardware? Chapter 6 offers a Bayesian account of the general learning processes; Chapters 8 and 11 present Bayesian models on social learning and number. 3) If infants are engaged in hypothesis testing, where do the hypotheses come from? How do they construct the hypothesis space?Chapters3and13takeuptheseissuesfromdifferentperspectives. 4) Inmanycases,childrenexhibitwhatseemstobequiteirrational behavior, and they make systematic errors in reasoning, at least fromtheadultperspective.Cansomeofthedifferencesbetween children’s reasoning and adults’ be viewed through the lens of rational constructivist learning? Chapters 7, 8, 9 provide examplesofhowitmightbepossibletoanswerthisquestionin three different conceptual domains. 5) Social learning in infants and children has received much attentioninrecentyears.Chapters5,11,and12addressissuesin this domain: is social learning rational? How can a rational constructivist framework help explain social learning? xiv Preface 6) Lastly, with limited amounts of evidence, infants and young children can revise their beliefs and acquire new concepts. But much learning in childhood takes place on a much larger time-scale, and the conceptual change that results from such learningismuchmoreprofound.Itisanopenquestionwhether the same underlying process can explain these long-term changes and developments. Chapter 10 discusses these issues. REFERENCES Carey, S.(2009). The originsof concepts. OxfordUniversity Press. Chater,N.,&Oaksford,M.(Eds.).(2008).Theprobabilisticmind:prospectsforBayesiancognitive science.Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chomsky, N. (1988). Language andthe problem of knowledge.Cambridge, MA:MIT Press. Colunga,E.,&Smith,L.B.(2005).Fromthelexicontoexpectationsaboutkinds:therole of associative learning. Psychological Review, 112,347–382. Elman, J., Bates, E., Johnson, M., Karmiloff-Smith, A., Parisi, D., & Plunkett, K. (1996). Rethinking innateness: A connectionist perspective on development. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Fodor,J. (1975). The language ofthought.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Fodor,J.,&Pylyshyn,Z.(1988).Connectionismandcognitivearchitecture.Cognition,28, 3–71. Griffiths,T.L.,Chater,N.,Kemp,C.,Perfors,A.,&Tenenbaum,J.B.(2010).Probabilistic modelsofcognition:exploringrepresentationsandinductivebiases.TrendsinCognitive Sciences, 14, 357–364. Johnson, S. (2010). Neoconstructivism.New York: OxfordUniversity Press. Karmiloff-Smith, A. (1992). Beyond modularity.Cambridge, MA:MIT Press. Marcus, G.(2001). The algebraic mind. Cambridge,MA: MITPress. Marr, D.(1982). Vision.Cambridge, MA:MITPress. Newcombe, N. (2010). What is neoconstructivism? In S. Johnson (Ed.), Neoconstructivism New York: OxfordUniversity Press. Pinker,S. (1994). The language instinct.WilliamMorrow. Pinker, S., & Prince, A. (1988). On language and connectionism: analysis of a parallel distributed processing modelof language acquisition. Cognition, 28, 73–193. Smith, L. B. (2001). How domain-general processes may create domain-specific biases. In M. Bowerman, & S. 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CHAPTER ONE The Probable and the Possible at 12 Months: Intuitive Reasoning about the Uncertain Future Nicolo(cid:1) Cesana-Arlotti*, Erno Tégl(cid:3)as**, and Luca L. Bonatti*,1 *ICREA,UniversitatPompeuFabra,Barcelona,Espan~a **CognitiveDevelopmentCentre,CentralEuropeanUniversity,H-1015Budapest,Hungary 1Addresscorrespondenceto:LucaL.Bonatti,ICREA,UniversitatPompeuFabra,C.RocBoronat,138, EdificiTanger,55.110,08018Barcelona,Espan~a.Email:[email protected] Contents 1. Introduction 2 2. CanHumansReasonabouttheProbableandthePossible? 3 3. Infants’ReasoningAbilities:Domain-SpecificMechanisms,GeneralSystems 7 ofInferences,andFuturePredictions 4. ATheoryofProbabilisticReasoning:FromLogicalRepresentations 10 toSingle-CaseProbabilities 5. Infants’ExpectationsabouttheProbableFuture 12 6. IntuitiveStatisticsandLogicalIntuitionsofProbabilities:Conflicting 15 orComplementaryExplanations? 7. InfantRationalityandSimulations:YetaThirdAlternative? 18 8. Whatabout“ExperiencedFrequencies”? 20 9. TheFutureofPredictionsabouttheFuture 22 Acknowledgments 22 References 23 Abstract How do infants predict the next future event, when such a prediction requires esti- matingtheevent’sprobability?Theliteraturesuggeststhatadulthumansoftenfailthis taskbecausetheirprobabilityestimatesareaffectedbyheuristicsandbiasesorbecause theycanreasonaboutthefrequencyofclassesofeventsbutnotabouttheprobability ofsingle events.Recentevidencesuggests insteadthatalready at12monthsinfants haveanintuitivenotionofprobabilitythatappliestosingle,neverexperiencedevents and that they may use it to predict what will happen next. We present a theory accordingtowhichinfants’intuitivegraspoftheprobability offutureeventsderives fromtheirrepresentationoflogicallyconsistentfuturepossibilities.Wecompareitand other theories against the currently available data. Although the evidence does not speakuniquelyinfavorofonetheory,theresultspresentedandthetheoriescurrently being developed to account for them suggest that infants have surprisingly AdvancesinChildDevelopmentandBehavior,Volume43 (cid:1)2012ElsevierInc. j 1 ISSN0065-2407, Allrightsreserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-397919-3.00001-0