Quo Vadimus: Geophysics for the Next Generation

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Geophysical Monograph 60
IUGG Volume 10
Quo Vaditnus
Geophysics for the Next Generation
George D. Garland
John R. Apel
Editors
tQ) American Geophysical Union
ffi
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
Geophysical MonographlIUGG Series
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PubIication Data
Quo vadimus: geophysics for the next generation / George D. Garland,
John R. Apel, editors.
p. cm. - (Geophysical monograph; 60) (IUGG; v. 10)
ISBN 0-087590-455-6
1. Geophysics. 2. Geodesy. I. Garland, George D. (George
David), 1926- . II. Apel, John R. III. American Geophysical
Union. IV. International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics.
V. Series. VI. Series: IUGG (Series) ; v. 10.
QC801.Q6 1990
550--dc20 90-23673
CIP
ISBN 0-87590-455-6
Copyright 1990 by the American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Avenue,
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Printed in the United States of America.
CONTENTS
Preface
George D. Garland and John R. Apel ix
Vening Meinesz, a Pioneer in Earth Sciences
N. J. Vlaar xi
Geodesy and Geophysics in Their Interaction with Mathematics and Physics, and Some Open
Problems in Geodesy
Helmut Moritz 1
Geodesy and Geophysics
J. M. Wahr 5
Geophysical Geodesy: The Study of the Slow Deformations of the Earth
Kurt Lambeck 7
Some Possible Additional Answers
Petr Vanfcek 11
The Earth as a Planet
William M. Kaula 13
Space Plasma Physics
Donald J. Williams, George L. Siscoe 21
The Importance of the Variability of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment
Y. Kamide 23
Where Are We Going in the Study of Short-Period Climate Fluctutations?
Jerome Namias 25
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Related Topics
Raymond Hide 39
Hydrodynamic Complexity in the Earth System
W. Richard Peltier 43
Climate
George C. Reid 45
Comments on George Reid's "Quo Vadimus" Contribution "Climate"
Paul J. Crutzen 47
Research in Climate Science
Stephen H. Schneider 49
Scale Interactions
John T. Snow 55
Oceanography and Geophysics
D. Lal 59
vii
viii Contents
Earth Science in the 21st Century
Paul H. LeBlond 63
Physical Oceanography to the End of the Twentieth Century
R. W. Stewart 65
Comments on R. W. Stewart's "Physical Oceanography to the End of the Twentieth Century"
C. Wunsch 69
Quo Vadimus-Hydrology
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 71
Statement to Follow Quo Vadimus-Hydrology by Z. W. Kundzewicz
Mark Meier 77
Statement on Quo Vadimus-Hydrology
Peter S. Eagleson 79
The Lithosphere of the Earth as a Large Non-Linear System
v.
Keilis-Borok 81
Contributions to the Quo Vadimus Symposium 83
Index 115
PREFACE
This Monograph contains the contributions to the Union major problems. These statements were collected and
symposium, held at the XIX General Assembly, Vancouver, printed by Professor Moritz and made available at the
Canada in August 1987, and known as the Quo Vadimus symposium. They appear in the second part of this
symposium. Monograph, without further editing or reviewing.
As the name ("Where are we going?") suggests, one The papers presented at the symposium were those of
principal purpose of the symposium was to identify speakers invited by the symposium committee. These
outstanding problems of geodesy and geophysics, and papers form the nucleus of the first part of the
thereby to stimulate efforts to solve them over the next few Monograph. In order to prepare the material for
decades. While there had been a number of proposals to publication, the AGU appointed Professor G.D. Garland and
take a critical look at the present state of these sciences, Dr. J.R. Apel as volume editors. In the course of
the form of the symposium owes much to a suggestion by arranging the written contributions for peer review, the
Professor Keilis-Borok, that geodesists and geophysicists editors noted that there were aspects of geodesy and
emulate the critical review of mathematics made by David geophysics which had not been considered by any speaker.
Hilbert in 1900. Hilbert outlined twenty-three unsolved To remedy this, the editors invited additional written
problems, which he felt were being bequeathed to the communications, and also invited all reviewers of the
mathematicians of the twentieth century. His paper has papers, if they wished, to prepare their comments for
had great influence, and many of the problems isolated by publication.
him have now been solved. We believe that the volume now presented gives a
There was a second major purpose of the symposium: reasonably balanced view of the outstanding problems of
to mark the centenary of the birth of the great Dutch geodesy and geophysics. The authors vary, of course, in
geodesist and geophysicist F.A. Vening Meinesz (born 1887) the optimism with which they consider the solutions to
and to honor his memory. It was felt that this was these problems to be forthcoming. some writers emphasizing
particularly appropriate, since Vening Meinesz, who was the difficulties, others the advances which are already being
President of the Union from 1948 to 1951, would himself made. Let us hope that this critical look at our sciences
have been fascinated by the problems and by the approach will bear fruit as did Hilbert's analysis of the state of
taken to identify them. mathematics in 1900.
The arrangement of this Monograph is based in part
upon the format of the symposium. Well in advance of
the 1987 meeting, invitations were sent by the symposium
committee (Professors V.1. Keilis-Borok, Helmut Moritz and George D. Garland John R. Apel
G.D. Garland) through all National Committees and Department of Physics Applied Physics Laboratory
Associations, inviting brief individual statements of perceived University of Toronto Johns Hopkins University
Geophysical Monograph 60
IUGG Volume 10
®American Geophysical Union
ix
F. A. Vening Meinesz
VENING MEINESZ, A PIONEER IN EARTH SCIENCES
N.J. Vlaar
Vening Meinesz Laboratories
University of Utrecht
Budapestlaan 4
3584 CD Utrecht
The Netherlands
F.A. Vening Meinesz (1887-1966) is especially known Meinesz and C.A.C. den Tex. He descended from lines of
from his gravity measurements at sea. lie devised the Dutch gentry and patriciate. His father was mayor of the
Vening Meinesz pendulum apparatus by which it became city of Rotterdam and later of Amsterdam. His
possible to measure gravity at sea with comparable accuracy background, stately appearance, and distinguished manners
as on land. would, in his later scientific career, open many doors and
Starting in 1923 he conducted several global gravity give access to the highest authorities.
surveys on voyages on submarines, particularly to and in The choice of his high school education indicates that he
the Indonesian Archipelago. He detected strong gravity destined himself for a profession in science, technology, or
anomaly belts running parallel to the Indonesian deep sea commerce. This was quite unusual in his family. A career
trenches. He explained these Meinesz belts as sites of as magistrate or lawyer would have been more in line.
downbuckling of the Earth's crust. He introduced the He graduated from Delft Technical University in civil
concept of regional isostasy taking flexure of an elastic crust engineering in 1910 and found his first occupation with the
into account. He also contributed to physical geodesy: The Netherlands State Committee on Arc measurements. He
Vening Meinesz formula connects the deviation of the was assigned to measure gravity in the Netherlands. One
vertical from the plumbline to gravity anomalies. of the main concerns of the international geodetic
At the beginnings of space age the problem of the community at the beginning of this century was to
Earth's external gravity field received his attention. determine the Earth's shape, not only by arc measurements,
His work connected with geodynamics, and in particular but also by means of the gravity field. Measuring the
with mountain building, epeirogeny, and graben tectonics, gravity field in the Netherlands would be decisive for
did not receive much of the interest it certainly deserves. Vening Meinesz' future career.
The present paper deals in particular with the geodynamic Like for the other famous Dutch geodesist, Snellius,
concepts which were developed by Vening Meinesz as a some centuries before, the peculiar geography of the low
consequence of his observational work, already from an countries would prove to be the incentive for some of their
early time onward. The evolution of these concepts, from most important contributions to science. The flat landscape,
the possibility of a contracting Earth to the hypothesis of together with the many church steeples to act as reference
convection currents in the Earth as underlying causes of points, induced Snellius to become the founder of geodetic
mountain building and other geodynamic processes, are triangulation. Vening Meinesz designed his famous
presented in retrospect. Special attention is devoted to the pendulum apparatus in order to eliminate the noise of the
connection between Vening Meinesz' ideas and their unstable and shaky soil. The principle of the apparatus
relevance for the plate tectonic hypothesis. was based on using two pendulums swinging in a common
Vening Meinesz stood at the threshold of modern Earth plane with equal amplitudes and opposite phases. Thus
science. Many of his ideas have not yet lost their validity. their relative motion eliminates the motion of their common
Many problems he addressed still await their solution. The support. Later, he perfected his instrument by adding a
social and scientific environment in which he worked third pendulum.
enabled individuals like him to pioneer pathways into the The theory of his apparatus was subject of the thesis,
future. which, in 1915, earned him the doctors degree, cum laude.
Up to 1921 gravity in the Netherlands was measured at
Measuring Gravity at Sea fifty localities. The precision of the measurements was
shown to be considerably increased relative to single
Felix Andries Vening Meinesz was born on July 30, pendulum ohservations and this success induced Vening
1887, as the youngest of the four children of S.A. Vening Meinesz to investigate the feasibility to use the instrument
at sea. Gravity at sea, which covered the larger part of
Geophysical Monograph 60 the Earth's surface, was not yet possible with the same
IUGG Volume 10 precision as on land. Earlier measurements at sea by
©American Geophysical Union Hecker of the Berlin observatory, who used an instrument
xi