Quantitative Methods for the Social Sciences: A Practical Introduction with Examples in SPSS and Stata

193 Pages·2018·7.79 MB·english

by  Daniel Stockemer

Daniel Stockemer
Quantitative
Methods for the
Social Sciences
A Practical Introduction with Examples
in SPSS and Stata
Quantitative Methods for the Social Sciences
Daniel Stockemer
Quantitative Methods
for the Social Sciences
A Practical Introduction with Examples
in SPSS and Stata
DanielStockemer
UniversityofOttawa
SchoolofPoliticalStudies
Ottawa,Ontario,Canada
ISBN978-3-319-99117-7 ISBN978-3-319-99118-4 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99118-4
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Contents
1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 TheNutsandBoltsofEmpiricalSocialScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.1 WhatIsEmpiricalResearchintheSocialSciences?. . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 QualitativeandQuantitativeResearch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.3 Theories,Concepts,Variables,andHypothesis. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3.1 Theories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3.2 Concepts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.3.3 Variables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.3.4 Hypotheses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.4 TheQuantitativeResearchProcess. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3 AShortIntroductiontoSurveyResearch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.1 WhatIsSurveyResearch?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.2 AShortHistoryofSurveyResearch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.3 TheImportanceofSurveyResearchintheSocialSciences
andBeyond. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.4 OverviewofSomeoftheMostWidelyUsedSurveys
intheSocialSciences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.4.1 TheComparativeStudyofElectoralSystems(CSES). . . 28
3.4.2 TheWorldValuesSurvey(WVS). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.4.3 TheEuropeanSocialSurvey(ESS). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.5 DifferentTypesofSurveys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.5.1 Cross-sectionalSurvey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.5.2 LongitudinalSurvey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4 ConstructingaSurvey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.1 QuestionDesign. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.2 OrderingofQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.3 NumberofQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.4 GettingtheQuestionsRight. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.4.1 VagueQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.4.2 BiasedorValue-LadenQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
v
vi Contents
4.4.3 ThreateningQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.4.4 ComplexQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
4.4.5 NegativeQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
4.4.6 PointlessQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
4.5 SocialDesirability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 41
4.6 Open-EndedandClosed-EndedQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.7 TypesofClosed-EndedSurveyQuestions. . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . 44
4.7.1 Scales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
4.7.2 DichotomousSurveyQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.7.3 Multiple-ChoiceQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.7.4 NumericalContinuousQuestions. . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. 48
4.7.5 CategoricalSurveyQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.7.6 Rank-OrderQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.7.7 MatrixTableQuestions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.8 DifferentVariables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.9 CodingofDifferentVariablesinaDataset. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4.9.1 CodingofNominalVariables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4.10 DraftingaQuestionnaire:GeneralInformation. . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.10.1 DraftingaQuestionnaire:AStep-by-StepApproach. . . 53
4.11 BackgroundInformationAbouttheQuestionnaire. . . . . . . . . . . 54
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5 ConductingaSurvey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5.1 PopulationandSample. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5.2 Representative,Random,andBiasedSamples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.3 SamplingError. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
5.4 Non-randomSamplingTechniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
5.5 DifferentTypesofSurveys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5.6 WhichTypeofSurveyShouldResearchersUse?. . . . . . . . . . . 67
5.7 Pre-tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
5.7.1 WhatIsaPre-test?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
5.7.2 HowtoConductaPre-test?.. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. 69
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
6 UnivariateStatistics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.1 SPSSandStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.2 PuttingDataintoanSPSSSpreadsheet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.3 PuttingDataintoaStataSpreadsheet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
6.4 FrequencyTables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
6.4.1 ConstructingaFrequencyTableinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . 77
6.4.2 ConstructingaFrequencyTableinStata. . . . . . . . . . . 78
6.5 TheMeasuresofCentralTendency:Mean,Median,Mode,
andRange. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
6.6 DisplayingDataGraphically:PieCharts,Boxplots,and
Histograms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Contents vii
6.6.1 PieCharts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
6.6.2 DoingaPieChartinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
6.6.3 DoingaPieChartinStata. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 83
6.7 Boxplots. . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . 84
6.7.1 DoingaBoxplotinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
6.7.2 DoingaBoxplotinStata. .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. 86
6.8 Histograms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
6.8.1 DoingaHistograminSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
6.8.2 DoingaHistograminStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
6.9 Deviation,Variance,StandardDeviation,StandardError,
SamplingError,andConfidenceInterval. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
6.9.1 CalculatingtheConfidenceIntervalinSPSS. . . . . . . . 95
6.9.2 CalculatingtheConfidenceIntervalinStata. . . . . . . . . 96
FurtherReading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
7 BivariateStatisticswithCategoricalVariables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
7.1 IndependentSamplet-Test. .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . 101
7.1.1 DoinganIndependentSamplest-TestinSPSS. . . . . . . 104
7.1.2 InterpretinganIndependentSamplest-Test
SPSSOutput. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
7.1.3 ReadinganSPSSIndependentSamplest-TestOutput
ColumnbyColumn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
7.1.4 DoinganIndependentSamplest-TestinStata. . . . . . . 108
7.1.5 InterpretinganIndependentSamplest-TestStata
Output. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
7.1.6 ReportingtheResultsofanIndependent
Samplest-Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
7.2 F-TestorOne-WayANOVA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
7.2.1 Doinganf-TestinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
7.2.2 InterpretinganSPSSANOVAOutput. . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
7.2.3 DoingaPosthocorMultipleComparisonTest
inSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
7.2.4 Doinganf-TestinStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
7.2.5 Interpretinganf-TestinStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
7.2.6 DoingaPosthocorMultipleComparisonTest
withUnequalVarianceinStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
7.2.7 ReportingtheResultsofanf-Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
7.3 Cross-tabulationTableandChi-SquareTest. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.3.1 Cross-tabulationTable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.3.2 Chi-SquareTest. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
7.3.3 DoingaChi-SquareTestinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
7.3.4 InterpretinganSPSSChi-SquareTest. . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
7.3.5 DoingaChi-SquareTestinStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 130
7.3.6 ReportingaChi-SquareTestResult. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Reference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
viii Contents
8 BivariateRelationshipsFeaturingTwoContinuousVariables. . . . . 133
8.1 WhatIsaBivariateRelationshipBetweenTwoContinuous
Variables?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
8.1.1 PositiveandNegativeRelationships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
8.2 Scatterplots. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 134
8.2.1 PositiveRelationshipsDisplayedinaScatterplot. . . . . 134
8.2.2 NegativeRelationshipsDisplayedinaScatterplot. . . . . 134
8.2.3 NoRelationshipDisplayedinaScatterplot. . . . . . .. . . 135
8.3 DrawingtheLineinaScatterplot. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
8.4 DoingScatterplotsinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
8.5 DoingScatterplotsinStata. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . 139
8.6 CorrelationAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
8.6.1 DoingaCorrelationAnalysisinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
8.6.2 InterpretinganSPSSCorrelationOutput. . . . . . . . . . . 145
8.6.3 DoingaCorrelationAnalysisinStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
8.7 BivariateRegressionAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
8.7.1 GaugingtheSteepnessofaRegressionLine. . . . . . . . 148
8.7.2 GaugingtheErrorTerm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
8.8 DoingaBivariateRegressionAnalysisinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . 152
8.9 InterpretinganSPSS(Bivariate)RegressionOutput. . . . . . . .. . 153
8.9.1 TheModelSummaryTable. . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . 153
8.9.2 TheRegressionANOVATable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
8.9.3 TheRegressionCoefficientTable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
8.10 Doinga(Bivariate)RegressionAnalysisinStata. . . . . . . . . . . . 156
8.10.1 InterpretingaStata(Bivariate)RegressionOutput. . . . 157
8.10.2 ReportingandInterpretingtheResultsofaBivariate
RegressionModel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
FurtherReading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
9 MultivariateRegressionAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
9.1 TheLogicBehindMultivariateRegressionAnalysis. . . . . . . . . 163
9.2 TheFunctionalFormsofIndependentVariablestoInclude
inaMultivariateRegressionModel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
9.3 InterpretationHelpforaMultivariateRegressionModel. . . . . . 166
9.4 DoingaMultipleRegressionModelinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
9.5 InterpretingaMultipleRegressionModelinSPSS. . . . . . . . . . 166
9.6 DoingaMultipleRegressionModelinStata. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
9.7 InterpretingaMultipleRegressionModelinStata. . . . . . . . . . . 168
9.8 ReportingtheResultsofaMultipleRegressionAnalysis. . . . . . 170
9.9 FindingtheBestModel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
9.10 AssumptionsoftheClassicalLinearRegressionModelor
OrdinaryLeastSquareRegressionModel(OLS). . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Reference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
Contents ix
Appendix1:TheDataoftheSampleQuestionnaire. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
Appendix2:PossibleGroupAssignmentsThatGowithThisCourse. . . 177
Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
1
Introduction
Under what conditions do countries go to war? What is the influence of the
2008–2009economiccrisisonthevoteshareofradicalright-wingpartiesinWestern
Europe? What type of people are the most likely to protest and partake in
demonstrations? How has the urban squatters’ movement developed in
South Africa after apartheid? There is hardly any field in the social sciences that
asksasmanyresearchquestionsaspoliticalscience.Questionsscholarsareinterested
in can be specific and reduced to one event (e.g., the development of the urban
squatter’smovementinSouthAfricapost-apartheid)orgeneralandsystemicsuchas
the occurrence of war and peace. Whether general or specific, what all empirical
researchquestionshaveincommonisthenecessitytouseadequateresearchmethods
toanswerthem.Forexample,toeffectivelyevaluatetheinfluenceoftheeconomic
downturnin2008–2009ontheradicalright-wingsuccessintheelectionspreceding
the crisis, we need data on the radical right-wing vote before and after the crisis, a
clearlydefinedoperationalizationofthecrisisanddataonconfoundingfactorssuch
as immigration, crime, and corruption. Through appropriate modeling techniques
(i.e., multiple regression analysis on macro-level data), we can then assess the
absoluteandrelativeinfluenceoftheeconomiccrisisontheradicalright-wingvote
share.
Researchmethodsarethe“breadandbutter”ofempiricalpoliticalscience.They
are the tools that allow researchers to conduct research and detect empirical
regularities, causal chains, and explanations of political and social phenomena. To
use a practical analogy, a political scientist needs to have a toolkit of research
methodsathisorherdisposaltobuildgoodempiricalresearch inthesamewayas
amasonmusthavecertaintoolstobuildahouse.Itisindispensableforamasonto
not only have some rather simple tools (e.g., a hammer) but also some more
sophisticatedtoolssuchasamixerorcrane.Thesameappliesforapoliticalscientist.
Ideally,heorsheshouldhavesomeeasytools(suchasdescriptivestatisticsormeans
testing)athisorherdisposalbutalsosomemorecomplextoolssuchaspooledtime
series analysis or maximum likelihood estimation. Having these tools allows
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