Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates PDF
Preview Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates
Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates. Michael J. Conroy, John P. Carroll © 2009 Michael J. Conroy and John P. Carroll. ISBN: 978-1-405-19098-5 Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page i — #1 Anelectroniccompaniontothebookisavailableintwoformats:hypertextonCD,and awebpagemaintainedattheUniversityofGeorgia,accessiblethrough www.blackwellpublishing.com/conroy Seep.xforfurtherdetails. Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page ii — #2 Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates MichaelJ.ConroyandJohnP.Carroll University of Georgia Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page iii — #3 Thiseditionfirstpublished2009 ©2009byMichaelJ.ConroyandJohnP.Carroll BlackwellPublishingwasacquiredbyJohnWiley&SonsinFebruary2007.Blackwell’spublishingprogramhas beenmergedwithWiley’sglobalScientific,TechnicalandMedicalbusinesstoformWiley-Blackwell. Registeredoffice JohnWiley&SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK Editorialoffices 9600GarsingtonRoad,Oxford,OX42DQ,UK TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK 111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030-5774,USA Fordetailsofourglobaleditorialoffices,forcustomerservicesandforinformationabouthowtoapplyfor permissiontoreusethecopyrightmaterialinthisbookpleaseseeourwebsiteatwww.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell. Therightoftheauthortobeidentifiedastheauthorofthisworkhasbeenassertedinaccordancewiththe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,in anyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,exceptaspermittedby theUKCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,withoutthepriorpermissionofthepublisher. Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmaynotbe availableinelectronicbooks. Designationsusedbycompaniestodistinguishtheirproductsareoftenclaimedastrademarks.Allbrandnames andproductnamesusedinthisbookaretradenames,servicemarks,trademarksorregisteredtrademarksof theirrespectiveowners.Thepublisherisnotassociatedwithanyproductorvendormentionedinthisbook.This publicationisdesignedtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardtothesubjectmattercovered. Itissoldontheunderstandingthatthepublisherisnotengagedinrenderingprofessionalservices.Ifprofessional adviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservicesofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought. LibraryofCongressCataloguing-in-PublicationData Conroy,MichaelJ.(MichaelJames),1952- Quantitativeconservationofvertebrates/MichaelJ.ConroyandJohnP.Carroll. p.cm. Includesbibliographicalreferences. ISBN:978-1-4051-9098-5(hardback:alk.paper) ISBN:978-1-4051-8228-7(paperback:alk.paper) 1.Vertebratepopulations–Mathematicalmodels.2.Conservationbiology–Mathematicalmodels.I.Carroll, JohnP.II.Title. QL607.6.C662009 (cid:1) 639.9015118–dc22 2008029041 AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. Setin10.5/13ptMinionbyNewgenImagingSystems(P)Ltd,Chennai,India PrintedinMalaysiabyVivarPrintingSdnBhd 1 2009 Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page iv — #4 Contents Preface vii Acknowledgements ix CompanionwebsiteandCD-ROM x 1 Introduction:theroleofscienceinconservation 1 Part I Basicconceptsinscientificinvestigationsforconservation 7 2 Usingmodelsinconservationbiology 9 3 Modelsofpopulationdynamics 15 4 Applyingpopulationmodelstoconservation 32 5 Basicsofstudydesignandanalysis 47 Part II Conservationstudiesandmonitoringprograms 71 6 Generalprinciplesofestimation 73 7 Occupancy(presence–absence)analysis 81 8 Samplecountsforabundanceestimation 101 9 Distancesamplingforestimatingdensityandabundance 115 10 Capture–mark–recapturestudiesforestimatingabundanceanddensity 135 11 Estimationofsurvivalfromradiotelemetry,nestingsuccessstudies,and agedistributions 160 12 Mark–recaptureforestimatingsurvival,recruitment,abundance,and movementrates 189 13 Analysisofhabitat 219 14 Estimationofspeciesrichnessandothercommunityparameters 230 Part III Integratingmodelingandmonitoringforconservation 251 15 Elementsofconservationdecisionmaking 253 16 Accountingforuncertaintyinconservationdecisions 265 17 Learningandadaptivemanagement 274 18 Casestudy:decisionmodelingandadaptivemanagementfordeclining grasslandbirdsinthesoutheasternUSA 289 19 Summaryandrecommendations 303 Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page v — #5 vi Contents Literaturecited 307 Glossary 314 AppendixA:Statisticalandmodelingprogramsavailableontheworldwideweb 324 AppendixB:Otherinternetresources 326 AppendixC:Modelingandstatisticalnotation 328 AppendixD:Keytoabundanceandparameterestimation 331 Index 337 Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page vi — #6 Preface This book is intended for use by field biologists and others, including future field biologists who might be in a university course, engaged in the day-to-day study and conservation of vertebrate animals. Our goal is that conservation biologists use this bookasa(withapologiestoourcolleagueEvanCooch)“gentleintroduction”tothefield ofquantitativeecology.Wehopetoconvincereadersthatthemethodsandapproaches withinarenot thedomainofmathematicians,statisticians,andcomputerprogramers, butinfactareessentialtoolstodoingthejobofconservationinthetwenty-firstcentury. We intend this book to be used. Read it, mark it up, and take it into the field. Consult it before collecting field data, to motivate and design your monitoring and researchprograms(PartI),andafterwardstoproperlyanalyzeandinterpretthedata that (hopefully) have now been properly gathered (Part II). Especially in Part II we hopethatthisintroductiongivesfieldbiologiststhebasictoolsandconfidencetotackle thespecializedbookscoveringmanyofthefieldtechniquesthatweciteinthisbook. We draw particular attention to Part III of the book, which deals with structured decision making and adaptive management. We would actually encourage readers to skipaheadtothissectionandgettogripswiththeessentialideasofapplyingmodels toconservationdecisions.ThenreturntoPartsIandIIforthedetailsofhowtobuild modelsandcollectandanalyzefielddata.Thiswillhelpkeepthefocuswherewewant it–onthepracticalapplicationofthesemethodstosolvingrealconservationproblems. Asnotedonpageii,wehaveprovidedawebsiteforthebookandanaccompanying CD. The website will be updated (and corrected) periodically as new developments occurandas(inevitably)mistakesarefound.TheCDcontainsallthematerialonthe websitebutcannot,ofcourse,bekeptuptodateaseasilyasthewebsite.Bothprovide readyaccesstoalltheworkedexamplesintheboxesinthebook,withmuchmoredetail thanallowedforintheprintedbook.Tothatend,wehaveprovidedlinkstosoftware andotherresources,mostofitfreelyavailableontheinternet.ThewebsiteandCDare essentialresourcesforthebook,sowestronglyencouragereaderstousethemtorepeat forthemselvestheanalysesperformedinthebook,andasatemplateforperforming analysesoftheirowndata. Finally, this book is not intended as a substitute for other, more comprehensive books, notably Williams et al. (2002). To keep this book to a reasonable length, and inordertoremainaccessibletoalessmathematicallyorientedaudience,wechosenot tocoverallthemethodsavailable,andhavenotprovidedthesortofdepththatmore advancedreferencessuchasWilliamsetal.(2002)provide.So,forexample,wehaveonly brieflydescribedsuchimportantapproachesasthePradeltemporalsymmetrymodel, Barker/Burnhamjointrecapture–recovermodels,andmulti-statemodels(Chapter12), Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page vii — #7 viii Preface buthaveinsteadprovidedacontextinwhichreadersmightassesswhetherthesemodels could be useful in their applications, and have pointed the reader to the appropriate in-depthbackgroundandrelevantsoftware.Likewise,wehavegivenonlya“barebones” treatmentoftheRobustDesign(Chapter12),butwehaveprovidedanexamplethat should give readers a good idea of just how powerful an approach this is. We have, rather,emphasizedpracticalapplicationsandexamples–whichiswhyweagainexhort readerstousetheCDandwebsitetofulladvantage. Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page viii — #8 Acknowledgements Thisbookwasmadepossiblebythesupportandhelpofmanypeople.M.J.C.thanksLiz, Mary,andLauraforputtingupwithanotherbookproject;hiscurrentandpastgraduate studentsforkeepinghimrelativelyhonest;andcolleaguesandoccasionalpartnersin crime including Richard Barker, Bob Cooper, Chris Fonnesbeck, Clint Moore, Jim Nichols,BillPalmer,JimPeterson,JonRunge,JuanCarlosSenar,JeffThompson,Ken Williams,andofcoursehiscoauthorJohnCarroll,tonameafew.J.P.C.thanksEileen, Caitlin, and Sean for their patience and understanding especially during periods of frustrationandchaos.Also,tohispartnerinthisventure,MikeConroy,whoprovided lots of interesting times during our tenure teaching Applied Population Dynamics together and then the Galliformes Shortcourse. J.P.C. particularly thanks the ‘UGA GamebirdPosse,’especiallyBrantFaircloth,TheronTerhune,andJeffThompson.We allupgradedourquantitativeskillstogether,althoughJ.P.C.nowlagswellbehindthe rest.Itwas5or6yearsofAPDstudentswhoputtheauthorsonthecourseforwriting thisbookandtheydeserveourthanks.Asastudentoncewroteinacourseevaluation, ‘Dr.ConroyneedstolearnhowtodumbdownandDr.CarrollneedstogetonRitalin.’ Thisprettymuchsumsupourworkingrelationship.Cheers! Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page ix — #9 Companion website and CD-ROM We have provided an electronic companion to the book in two formats: hyper- text on CD, and a webpage maintained at the University of Georgia available via www.blackwellpublishing.com/conroy The companion contains the details of all the Box examples in the book, includ- ingdatainputandprogramoutputwherespecialtyprograms(suchasMARKor DISTANCE) are used, or in many simpler cases, spreadsheets in Microsoft Excel format. Allsoftware(exceptMicrosoftandotherstandardproprietaryproducts)referenced hereincanbeobtained,usuallyfreeofcharge,viatheinternet. Wehaveprovidedlinkstotheseprograms,aswellastoothermodelingandstatis- ticalsoftwarethat,whilenotdirectlyreferenced,maybeusefultoreaders.Readers shouldalwaysobtainthemostup-to-dateversionsoftheseprograms. Finally, we have provided links to advanced undergraduate and graduate courses thatweandcolleagueshavetaughtattheUniversityofGeorgia,aswellastoshort coursesandworkshopsontopicscoveredinthebook. Weencouragereaderstoperiodicallyconsultthewebpageandcheckforupdatesto thismaterial,aswellastoreporttousanyerrorsthattheymayfind. Wetrustthatreaderswillfindthismaterialuseful,andsuggestthatitismainlyby applyingtheconceptsinthebooktorealexamplesthatreaderswillmostbenefit fromthismaterial. Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page x — #10
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