Quantitative Business Analysis (QBA)

195 Pages·2011·13.37 MB·English

Quantitative Business Analysis
(QBA)
I. Lindner and J.R. van den Brink
QQuanttiittattiive BBusiiness AAnallysiis
DDaatteess lleeccttuurreess::
October 31, November 7, 14, 21, 28,
DDeecceemmbbeerr 55
TTiime: 1111:0000-1122:4455,
Location: WN-KC 137
Quantitative Methods (QBA) 2
QQuanttiittattiive BBusiiness AAnallysiis
•• TTuttoorriiaallss:: TTueessddaayss aanndd WWeeddnneessddaayss
• Prepare exercises beforehand!
• Program for the first two weeks:
Exercises from chapter “Topic E1 –
Exercises Decision Analysis”:
week 1: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.5, 1.8
week 2: 1.4, 1.6, 1.7, 1.9
Quantitative Methods (QBA) 3
QQuuaannttiittaattiivvee BBuussiinneessss AAnnaallyyssiiss
Contents of the Course
Week 1-2 (Ines Lindner)
11. DDeecciissiioonn AAnnaallyyssiiss uussiinngg DDeecciissiioonn TTrreeeess
WWeekk 33-66 ((RRenéé van dden BBriinkk))
2. Strategic Thinking - Noncooperative Games
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Quantitative Business Analysis
• Book “Quantitative Business Analyses”
by C. van Montfort and J.R. van den Brink:
cchhaapptteerr TT11, TT22, EE11 aanndd EE22;;
• Book is available at Aureus
•• SShheeeettss ooff lleeccttuurreess ((oonn BBllaacckkbbooaarrdd))
• Relevant sections for decision theory:
8.1-8.3,, 8.5 ((exceppt “Usingg Excel...”)),, 8.6,, 8.8-
8.10
• We don’t discuss software applications in this
course!
Quantitative Methods (QBA) 5
Quantitative Business Analysis
Two efficient strategies to pass
tthhee eexxaamm!!
Quantitative Methods (QBA) 6
Quantitative Business Analysis
Facts:
• YYoouu hhaavvee ttoo rreeaadd tthhee tteexxtt mmaatteerriiaall iinn
order to pass the exam.
•• RRuullee ooff tthhuummbb:: AA lleeccttuurree iiss oonnllyy ffuunn iiff
you already know 50 percent.
Conclusion: Read text material before
lleeccttuurree aanndd ttaakkee lleeccttuurree aass rreevviissiioonn.
Quantitative Methods (QBA) 7
Quantitative Business Analysis
FFaaccttss::
• It is very tempting to just sit passively in
tthhe ttuttoriialls andd wattchh ddiiscussiion off
exercises.
• Problem: Passive understanding is not
enough for exam.
Conclusion: Try to do the exercises yourself
aanndd ttaakkee ttuuttoorriiaall aass aa ffeeeeddbbaacckk oonn yyoouurr
performance.
8
Quantitative Business Analysis
→ Answers to exercises decision theory will
bbee aavvaaiillaabbllee aatt tthhee eenndd ooff wweeeekk 22.
9
Decision Theory
Central question: What is the best decision to take?
Assumptions:
• We have some information.
• We are able to compute with perfect accuracy.
• We are fully rational.
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