Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence through Local Agents

353 Pages·2019·2.98 MB·English

by  Eli Berman

PROXY WARS
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PROXY WARS
Suppressing Violence through
Local Agents
Edited by Eli Berman
and David A. Lake
CORNELL UNIVERSITY PRESS ITHACA AND LONDON
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The authors are grateful for funding from the Office of Naval Research awards
#N00014-14-1-0843 and #N00014-16-1-2516. Any opinions, findings, and
conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research.
Copyright © 2019 by Cornell University
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof,
must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the pub-
lisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State
Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.
First published 2019 by Cornell University Press
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Berman, Eli, editor. | Lake, David A., 1956– editor. | Macdonald, Julia.
South Korea, 1950–1953.
Title: Proxy wars : suppressing violence through local agents / edited by Eli Berman
and David A. Lake.
Description: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2019. | Includes bibliographical
references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2018029903 (print) | LCCN 2018032286 (ebook) |
ISBN 9781501733093 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501733109 (epub/mobi) |
ISBN 9781501733055 | ISBN 9781501733055 (cloth ; alk. paper) | ISBN
9781501733062 (pbk. ; alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Proxy war—History—20th century—Case studies. | Proxy
war—History—21st century—Case studies. | United States—Foreign
relations—20th century—Case studies. | United States—Foreign relations—
21st century—Case studies.
Classification: LCC JZ6385 (ebook) | LCC JZ6385. P76 2019 (print) | DDC
355.02—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018029903
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Contents
List of Tables and Figures vii
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction: Principals, Agents, and Indirect Foreign Policies
Eli Berman, David A. Lake, Gerard Padró i Miquel,
and Pierre Yared 1
1. South Korea, 1950–53: Exogenous Realignment
of Preferences
Julia M. Macdonald 28
2. Denmark, 1940–45: Armed Resistance and Agency Slippage
in Germany’s Model Protectorate
Brandon Merrell 53
3. Colombia, 1990–2010: Cooperation in the War on Drugs
Abigail Vaughn 80
4. Lebanon and Gaza, 1975–2017: Israel’s Extremes of
Interest Alignment
Matthew J. Nanes 110
5. El Salvador, 1979–92: Revisiting Success
Ryan T. Baker 137
6. Pakistan, 2001–11: Washington’s Small Stick
Clara H. Suong 159
7. Not Dark Yet: The Israel-PA Principal-Agent Relationship,
1993–2017
Alexei S. Abrahams 185
8. Yemen, 2001–11: Building on Unstable Ground
Ben Brewer 210
9. Iraq, 2003–11: Principal Failure
David A. Lake 238
10. Policy Implications for the United States
Stephen Biddle 264
v
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vi CONTENTS
Conclusion
Eli Berman and David A. Lake 288
References 305
About the Contributors 327
Index 329
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Tables and Figures
Tables
0.1 Predictions of the theory 16
1.1 Timeline of key events 32
1.2 Theoretical expectations and summary results, South Korea 35
2.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Denmark 57
2.2 Danish sabotage attacks, 1940–43 68
2.3 Danish sabotage attacks, 1943 68
3.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Colombia 89
4.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Lebanon 112
5.1 T heoretical expectations and summary results,
El Salvador 144
5.2 Timeline of key events, El Salvador 145
6.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Pakistan 162
6.2 Number and location of terrorist attacks by major
extremist groups, 2001–11 173
7.1 T heoretical expectations and summary results,
Palestinian Authority 191
8.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Yemen 214
8.2 Yemen’s Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)
performance 222
9.1 Theoretical expectations and summary results, Iraq 244
C.1 Summary of cases and findings 290
Figures
0.1 Rewards and punishments as a function of disturbances 17
1.1 Gallup poll of Truman’s job approval ratings 41
vii
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viii TABLES AND FIGURES
3.1 Potential cocaine produced in Andean countries,
1990–2010 82
3.2 Threats to Colombian security, 1990–2010 84
3.3 Colombian coca eradication and cultivation, 1990–2010 85
3.4 Colombian cocaine production and seizure, 1990–2010 85
3.5 U.S. aid to Colombia, 1990–2010 87
3.6 Estimated coca leaf cultivation in Andean countries,
1990–2010 96
5.1 U.S. assistance to El Salvador, 1979–92 140
6.1 U.S. aid to Pakistan, 1980–2015 163
6.2 Popularity of the Pakistani military leadership, 2001–12 168
6.3 U.S. domestic pressure and disturbances to the United
States and Pakistan, 2001–12 171
6.4 Pakistani counterterrorism efforts and domestic
political pressure, 2001–12 174
6.5 U.S. assessment of Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts,
2001–11 175
7.1 Israeli fatalities in Israel and the West Bank, 1988–2017 188
7.2 U.S. aid obligations to the Palestinians, 1993–2016 198
8.1 U.S. military and security assistance to Yemen, 2001–12 227
8.2 Yemeni trainees (trained by U.S. government), 2001–12 228
8.3 U.S. arms shipments to Yemen, 2001–12 228
8.4 U.S. humanitarian and development aid to Yemen,
2001–12 228
8.5 Terrorist attacks in Yemen, 2001–12 231
8.6 U.S. drone strikes in Yemen, 2002–16 232
9.1 “Disturbances” in Iraq and coalition troop strength,
May 2003–May 2015 242
9.2 Total Iraqi security forces, July 2003–December 2008 251
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Acknowledgments
This volume is the product of a multiyear effort by a diverse group of scholars.
Our debts are wide and deep, as is our gratitude. One of our greatest debts is to
David Laitin, the intellectual godfather of this project, who challenged us to try
the method and helped devise the template we have used for the case studies. We
are also grateful to Gerard Padró i Miquel and Pierre Yared for their intellectual
leadership in developing the theory, and then tailoring it when we discovered the
need to account for capacity building as an alternative. They also advised us in
ways large and small on the case studies as those progressed.
We have benefited not only from the authors of the chapters included in this
volume but also from the contributions of other UC San Diego graduate stu-
dents who participated in our initial discussions and workshops, including Derek
Bonett, Garrett Bredell, Shannon Carcelli, and Liesel Spangler. John Powell con-
tributed to a miniconference at UC San Diego in June 2016. We are especially
grateful to our colleagues from the policy community who took time from their
busy schedules to “ground-truth” our studies in September 2016 at a conference
generously hosted at George Washington University. Conrad Crane, Luke Har-
tig, Ethan Hollander, Daniel Kurtzer, Daniel Markey, Natan Sachs, Abbey Steele,
David Ucko, and Kael Weston all provided detailed and extremely useful com-
mentary on the draft chapters. We appreciate the contributions of our academic
colleagues who attended that conference as well, including Charles Glaser, Marc
Grinberg, Yonatan Lupu, Rennah Miles, Harris Mylonas, and Elizabeth Saunders.
Finally, two anonymous reviewers for Cornell University Press provided excellent
comments on the penultimate version of the manuscript, seeing value in what we
had accomplished to that point but challenging us in ways that greatly improved
the final volume. Roger Haydon was, as always, the consummate editor. Lynne
Bush worked wonders in compiling, formatting, and editing the manuscript
under severe time constraints created only by our usual inefficiencies. Eric Levy
copyedited the volume and Ken Bolton prepared the index. None of the above
bears responsibility for our errors of commission or omission.
This book is part of a larger “Deterrence with Proxies” research project funded
by the Minerva Research Institute through the Office of Naval Research award
#N00014-16-1-2516. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommenda-
tions expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessar-
ily reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research. We have benefited from the
ix
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