Prosperity in The Age of Decline: How to Lead Your Business and Preserve Wealth Through the Coming Business Cycles

243 Pages·2014·1.6 MB·English

by  Brian Beaulieu

Beaulieu ftoc.tex V1-05/30/2014 9:22am Pageviii
Beaulieu ffirs.tex V2-05/28/2014 2:09pm Pagei
Beaulieu ffirs.tex V2-05/28/2014 2:09pm Pageii
Coverimageanddesign:Wiley
Copyright©2014byBeauBrosLLC.Allrightsreserved.
PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey.
PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada.
Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedin
anyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,or
otherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStates
CopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorization
throughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,
222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,[phone],fax[phone],oronthe
webatwww.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedto
thePermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ
07030,[phone],fax[phone],oronlineatwww.wiley.com/go/permissions.
LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheir
besteffortsinpreparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespectto
theaccuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimany
impliedwarrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybe
createdorextendedbysalesrepresentativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceand
strategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitableforyoursituation.Youshouldconsultwitha
professionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorshallbeliablefor
damagesarisingherefrom.
Forgeneralinformationaboutourotherproductsandservices,pleasecontactourCustomer
CareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762-2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat
[phone]orfax(317)572-4002.
Wileypublishesinavarietyofprintandelectronicformatsandbyprint-on-demand.Some
materialincludedwithstandardprintversionsofthisbookmaynotbeincludedine-booksor
inprint-on-demand.IfthisbookreferstomediasuchasaCDorDVDthatisnotincludedin
theversionyoupurchased,youmaydownloadthismaterialathttp://booksupport.wiley.com.
FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts,visitwww.wiley.com.
ISBN978-1-118-80989-1(cloth);ISBN978-1-118-93320-6(ebk);
ISBN978-1-118-93321-3(ebk)
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Beaulieu ftoc.tex V1-05/30/2014 9:22am Pageiii
CONTENTS
1
ResultsThatNoOneCanIgnore:YouCan
SuccessfullyPrepareforanUnknownFuture 1
WhereNottoLook 3
ConfidenceIndicators 3
Politics 8
FederalReserveBoard(TheU.S.Version
ofCentralBanksinOtherCountries) 9
NewspapersandMedia 15
ITREconomicsForecastAccuracy 16
2
TheStatusQuoNeverWas:SevenMajorTrends
andAssumptionsThatWon’tLast 21
UnstoppableTrendsThatSuddenlyStopped 22
Today’sTrendsThatWon’tLastForever 31
StimulusSpending IsNeededandHelpful 34
3
PreparingforProsperity—GoodNewsfor2015
and2016:DoYouHaveEnough? 37
WhatWill2015,2016,and2017LookLike? 39
iii
Beaulieu ftoc.tex V1-05/30/2014 9:22am Pageiv
iv CONTENTS
4
DepressionDriver:Demographics 45
MorePeople,MoreOlderPeople 47
ShowMetheMoney 53
MedicareandSocialSecurity 58
Managing toWin 61
ProbableWinners 65
(Potential)Losers 66
5
AWorldThatDoesn’tRememberInflation:
NewManagementandInvestmentThought
ProcessesRequired 69
Inflation’sImpacts 77
FiveSourcesofInflation 80
Managing toWin 95
WinnersandLosers 101
Appendix toChapter5 102
6
SovereignDebt—HarmlessorToxic?NotJust
anAmericanProblem 105
AGlobalPerspective 106
Summary 114
7
ACloserLookattheUnitedStates:TheU.S.
ProblemBecomestheWorld’sProblem 117
WhereAreWeNow? 117
WhereAreWeGoing? 122
StateandLocalGovernments 125
Beaulieu ftoc.tex V1-05/30/2014 9:22am Pagev
Contents v
SpreadingthePainaroundtheWorld 127
Summary 129
8
BusinessGrowthStrategiesandTactics
fromNowthrough2029 131
MonthlyMovingTotals(MMTs) 132
CalculatingRate-of-Change 132
UsetheMetrics 133
9
OffenseandDefense:StrategiesfortheUpside
oftheBusinessCycle 141
OffenseandDefense 141
ConflictingMessages 142
Don’tDelay 143
PhaseAManagement Objectives 144
LettheGoodTimesRoll 147
Summary 151
10
PlayingDefensetoWin:EnhancingProfitsEven
astheEconomyDeteriorates 153
ManagementObjectives 155
TheRulesAreChanging 167
Summary 168
11
GreatOpportunitieswithintheStockMarket:
WhatBusinessesandIndividualsNeedtoKnow 169
EnergyDistribution 170
PrintedElectronics 171
Beaulieu ftoc.tex V1-05/30/2014 9:22am Pagevi
vi CONTENTS
Mexico 172
WaterConservationandDistribution 173
HealthCare 174
VocationalEducation 176
3-DPrinting 176
Housing 177
Security 177
NaturalResources 178
Food 179
Entertainment 180
12
InvestingBasedonAgeandTrend 181
SomeCommonalities 181
DifferentMarkets—DifferentTimes 185
HowOldAreYou? 192
13
HowtoSpottheTop(BeforetheGreatDepression) 201
14
WhattheNextGenerationNeedstoKnow:
SixThingstheNextGenerationMustDo 209
WhatOwnersandManagersMustDo 209
SixThingsOurKids(andBusinesses)MustDo 211
Beaulieu ftoc.tex V1-05/30/2014 9:22am Pagevii
Contents vii
15
IsThereHope? 215
WhatCanStaveOfftheGreatDepression
of2030? 215
ADifferentViewofthe1930s 218
ADifferentFuture 218
Summary 219
Bibliography 221
Index 223
Beaulieu ftoc.tex V1-05/30/2014 9:22am Pageviii