Productivity measurement and resource allocation

177 Pages·2016·2.63 MB·English

Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and
Retrospective Theses and Dissertations
Dissertations
1981
Productivity measurement and resource allocation
in the operation of an electric utility
David Wing-Hung Mo
Iowa State University
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Recommended Citation
Mo, David Wing-Hung, "Productivity measurement and resource allocation in the operation of an electric utility " (1981).
Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 6932.
https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/6932
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Universi
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Mo, DAVID WING-HUNG
PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN THE
OPERATION OF AN ELECTRIC UTILITY
Iowa State University PH.D. 1981
University
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Productivity measurement anci resource allocation
in the operation of an electric utility
by
David Wing-Hung Mo
A Dissertation Submitted to the
Graduate Faculty in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
Department: Industrial Engineering
Major: Engineering Valuation
Approved :
Signature was redacted for privacy.
or Work
Signature was redacted for privacy.
Signature was redacted for privacy.
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa
1981
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. LITERATURE REVIEW 7
A. Productivity Indexes and Methodological Development 8
B. Productivity Measurement of Electric Utilities 15
C. Productivity and the Industrial Engineer 17
III. OBJECTIVES 20
IV. PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT OF AN ELECTRIC UTILITY COMPANY 22
A. Production Function Theory 23
1. The efficiency of the technology 24
2. The degree of economies of scale 26
3. The degree of capital intensity of a technology 26
4. The ease with which capital is substituted for
labor 27
B. Technological Change and Production Function 29
C. Partial-Factor Productivity and Multi-Factor
Productivity 31
D. Methodology in Derivation of Productivity Indexes 34
E. A Case Study: Productivity Measurement 39
1. Data base of output 40
2. Data base of inputs 40
3. Results and discussion 50
V. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF INPUT RESOURCES ALLOCATION UNDER
THE CONSIDERATION OF A PRODUCTIVITY CONSTRAINT 64
A. Applicability of Operations Research 65
B. Some Mathematical Models Related to Electric Utilities 67
C. Formulation of Mathematical Model for a Electric
Utility Company 70
ill
Page
1. The goal programming approach 72
2. Mathematical model of Input resources allocation 75
VI. DEMAND FORECASTING FOR AN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY 95
A. Features of Load Forecasting 96
B. Investigation of Some Forecasting Techniques 98
1. Census II decomposition method 98
2. Multiple regression analysis 101
C. A Case Study: Electricity Sales Forecasting 102
1. Forecasting using Census II decomposition method 103
2. Forecasting using multiple regression model 106
3. Discussion 110
VII. A CASE STUDY OF THE GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL 114
A. Input Data 114
B. Priority Ranking of Objectives 116a
C. Discussion of the Results 118
VIII. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 126
A. Summary 126
B. Conclusions 127
C. Recommendations 128
IX. REFERENCES 130
X. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 139
XI. APPENDIX A: TABLES OF OUTPUT AND INPUT STATISTICS 140
XII. APPENDIX B: A PART OF COMPUTER PRINTOUTS FOR THE
CENSUS II DECOMPOSITION METHOD 149
XIII. APPENDIX C: THE INPUT DATA AND THE OUTPUT VALUES
OF THE ACTUAL AND PREDICTED FOR THE
MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 153
iv
Page
XIV. APPENDIX D: SUMMARIES OF CAPITAL INVESTMENTS FOR
VARIOUS PLANTS AND ESTIMATION OF
MISCELLANEOUS MATERIALS USING REGRESSION
ANALYSIS 158
XV. APPENDIX E: THE INPUT DATA FOR THE GOAL PROGRAMMING
MODEL (CASE I) 164
1
I. INTRODUCTION
During the past decade, there has been a great deal of concern about
the performance of the American economy, particularly about productivity.
There is no doubt that the problems of productivity are of the greatest
importance, for John W. Kendrick (1961, p. 3), one of the pioneers in
productivity research, has aptly put it;
The story of productivity, the ratio of output to
input, is at heart the record of man's efforts to
raise himself from poverty.
The Joint Economic Committee of Congress (Boulden, 1979) could not
agree with him more, as the Committee warned recently that the average
American was likely to see his standard of living drastically reduced in
the 1980s, unless productivity growth is accelerated. The impacts of
productivity slowdown have been unfavorable. At the economy level it
has aggravated inflationary tendencies, contributed to balance of trade
and payments problems, and retarded the rate of increase in real individ­
ual wages and incomes. In the regulated industries, such as electric
utilities, slower productivity growth coupled with accelerated inflation
has resulted in profit squeeze, more frequent rate cases and rate in­
creases and more widespread, vocal public resistance to such increases.
Understandably, this concern for the level of productivity is
shared by government and industry. Individuals representing many disci­
plines, including management, engineering and economics, have begun
to study this problem as part of large effort to attack our economic
2
stagnation. The National Center for Productivity and Quality of Working
Life was established in 1974 by the government to help increase the
productivity of the American economy and improve the morale and quality
of work of American workers. Another independent organization, the
American Productivity Center (APC), was founded in early 1977 to assist
companies with productivity improvement programs. The APC is a non­
profit, privately funded and operated center created to accomplish
these objectives (Hamlin, 1978):
1. To improve productivity,
2. To improve the quality of working life, and
3. To preserve and strengthen the private enterprise system.
These strong efforts in productivity Improvement and the growing
interest in measuring the productivity of resource utilization can be
felt in every sector of economy. Such measurement, if applied and
interpreted correctly, becomes a useful indicator of economic activity
and a company's well-being.
The electric power industry has grown from an insignificant sector
in the late nineteenth century to one of the largest and most important
industries in the United States today. Until recently, the electric
utility industry could be regarded as a model of progress. Over the
period 1948-1966, total factor productivity in electric and gas utilities
increased at an average rate of nearly 5 percent a year. Kendrick (1975)
noted that this was well above the 2.5 percent rate of the private
domestic business economy as a whole.