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Productivity measurement and resource allocation PDF

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Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Retrospective Theses and Dissertations Dissertations 1981 Productivity measurement and resource allocation in the operation of an electric utility David Wing-Hung Mo Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at:https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd Part of theIndustrial Engineering Commons, and theOil, Gas, and Energy Commons Recommended Citation Mo, David Wing-Hung, "Productivity measurement and resource allocation in the operation of an electric utility " (1981). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 6932. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/6932 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Retrospective Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This was produced from a copy of a document sent to us for microfilming. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or notations which may appear on this reproduction. 1.The sign or "target" for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting through an image and duplicating adjacent pages to assure you of complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a round black mark it is an indication that the film inspector noticed either blurred copy because of movement during exposure, or duplicate copy. Unless we meant to delete copyrighted materials that should not have been filmed, you will find a good image of the page in the adjacent frame. If copyrighted materials were deleted you will find a target note listing the pages in the adjacent frame. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., is part of the material being photo­ graphed the photographer has followed a definite method in "sectioning" the material. It is customary to begin filming at the upper left hand corner of a large sheet and to continue from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. If necessary, sectioning is continued again—beginning below the first row and continuing on until complete. 4. For any illustrations that cannot be reproduced satisfactorily by xerography, photographic prints can be purchased at additional cost and tipped into your xerographic copy. Requests can be made to our Dissertations Customer Services Department. 5. Some pages in any document may have indistinct print. In all cases we have filmed the best available copy. Universi International 300 N. ZEEB RD., ANN ARBOR, Ml 48106 8128843 Mo, DAVID WING-HUNG PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN THE OPERATION OF AN ELECTRIC UTILITY Iowa State University PH.D. 1981 University Microfilms In t © r na t1 0n 31 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106 PLEASE NOTE; In all cases this material has been filmed in the best possible way from the available copy. Problems encountered with this document have been identified here with a check mark V . 1. Glossy photographs or pages 2. Colored illustrations, paper or print 3. Photographs with dark background 4. Illustrations are poor copy 5. Pages with black marks, not original copy 6. Print shows through as there is text on both sides of page 7. Indistinct, broken or small print on several pages 8. Print exceeds margin requirements 9. Tightly bound copy with print lost in spine 10. Computer printout pages with indistinct print 11. Page(s) lacking when material received, and not available from school or author. 12. Page(s) seem to be missing in numbering only as text follows. 13. Two pages numbered . Text follows. 14. Curling and wrinkled pages 15. Other : University Microfilms International Productivity measurement anci resource allocation in the operation of an electric utility by David Wing-Hung Mo A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department: Industrial Engineering Major: Engineering Valuation Approved : Signature was redacted for privacy. or Work Signature was redacted for privacy. Signature was redacted for privacy. Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 1981 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW 7 A. Productivity Indexes and Methodological Development 8 B. Productivity Measurement of Electric Utilities 15 C. Productivity and the Industrial Engineer 17 III. OBJECTIVES 20 IV. PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT OF AN ELECTRIC UTILITY COMPANY 22 A. Production Function Theory 23 1. The efficiency of the technology 24 2. The degree of economies of scale 26 3. The degree of capital intensity of a technology 26 4. The ease with which capital is substituted for labor 27 B. Technological Change and Production Function 29 C. Partial-Factor Productivity and Multi-Factor Productivity 31 D. Methodology in Derivation of Productivity Indexes 34 E. A Case Study: Productivity Measurement 39 1. Data base of output 40 2. Data base of inputs 40 3. Results and discussion 50 V. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF INPUT RESOURCES ALLOCATION UNDER THE CONSIDERATION OF A PRODUCTIVITY CONSTRAINT 64 A. Applicability of Operations Research 65 B. Some Mathematical Models Related to Electric Utilities 67 C. Formulation of Mathematical Model for a Electric Utility Company 70 ill Page 1. The goal programming approach 72 2. Mathematical model of Input resources allocation 75 VI. DEMAND FORECASTING FOR AN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY 95 A. Features of Load Forecasting 96 B. Investigation of Some Forecasting Techniques 98 1. Census II decomposition method 98 2. Multiple regression analysis 101 C. A Case Study: Electricity Sales Forecasting 102 1. Forecasting using Census II decomposition method 103 2. Forecasting using multiple regression model 106 3. Discussion 110 VII. A CASE STUDY OF THE GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL 114 A. Input Data 114 B. Priority Ranking of Objectives 116a C. Discussion of the Results 118 VIII. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 126 A. Summary 126 B. Conclusions 127 C. Recommendations 128 IX. REFERENCES 130 X. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 139 XI. APPENDIX A: TABLES OF OUTPUT AND INPUT STATISTICS 140 XII. APPENDIX B: A PART OF COMPUTER PRINTOUTS FOR THE CENSUS II DECOMPOSITION METHOD 149 XIII. APPENDIX C: THE INPUT DATA AND THE OUTPUT VALUES OF THE ACTUAL AND PREDICTED FOR THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 153 iv Page XIV. APPENDIX D: SUMMARIES OF CAPITAL INVESTMENTS FOR VARIOUS PLANTS AND ESTIMATION OF MISCELLANEOUS MATERIALS USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS 158 XV. APPENDIX E: THE INPUT DATA FOR THE GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL (CASE I) 164 1 I. INTRODUCTION During the past decade, there has been a great deal of concern about the performance of the American economy, particularly about productivity. There is no doubt that the problems of productivity are of the greatest importance, for John W. Kendrick (1961, p. 3), one of the pioneers in productivity research, has aptly put it; The story of productivity, the ratio of output to input, is at heart the record of man's efforts to raise himself from poverty. The Joint Economic Committee of Congress (Boulden, 1979) could not agree with him more, as the Committee warned recently that the average American was likely to see his standard of living drastically reduced in the 1980s, unless productivity growth is accelerated. The impacts of productivity slowdown have been unfavorable. At the economy level it has aggravated inflationary tendencies, contributed to balance of trade and payments problems, and retarded the rate of increase in real individ­ ual wages and incomes. In the regulated industries, such as electric utilities, slower productivity growth coupled with accelerated inflation has resulted in profit squeeze, more frequent rate cases and rate in­ creases and more widespread, vocal public resistance to such increases. Understandably, this concern for the level of productivity is shared by government and industry. Individuals representing many disci­ plines, including management, engineering and economics, have begun to study this problem as part of large effort to attack our economic 2 stagnation. The National Center for Productivity and Quality of Working Life was established in 1974 by the government to help increase the productivity of the American economy and improve the morale and quality of work of American workers. Another independent organization, the American Productivity Center (APC), was founded in early 1977 to assist companies with productivity improvement programs. The APC is a non­ profit, privately funded and operated center created to accomplish these objectives (Hamlin, 1978): 1. To improve productivity, 2. To improve the quality of working life, and 3. To preserve and strengthen the private enterprise system. These strong efforts in productivity Improvement and the growing interest in measuring the productivity of resource utilization can be felt in every sector of economy. Such measurement, if applied and interpreted correctly, becomes a useful indicator of economic activity and a company's well-being. The electric power industry has grown from an insignificant sector in the late nineteenth century to one of the largest and most important industries in the United States today. Until recently, the electric utility industry could be regarded as a model of progress. Over the period 1948-1966, total factor productivity in electric and gas utilities increased at an average rate of nearly 5 percent a year. Kendrick (1975) noted that this was well above the 2.5 percent rate of the private domestic business economy as a whole.

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PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT OF AN ELECTRIC UTILITY COMPANY. 22 .. has been done by private investigators in universities and research employees by the 1976 average wage and benefit payment, which was about.
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