Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives

325 Pages·2015·2.26 MB·English

by  Peter Olofsson

Probabilities

Probabilities
The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives
Second Edition
Peter Olofsson
DepartmentofMathematics
TrinityUniversity
SanAntonio,TX
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData:
Olofsson,Peter,1963-
Probabilities:thelittlenumbersthatruleourlives/PeterOlofsson,Mathematics
Department,TrinityUniversity,SanAntonio,TX.–Secondedition.
pagescm
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-1-118-89890-1(cloth)
1.Probabilities–Popularworks.2.Mathematics–Miscellanea.I.Title.
QA273.O462015
519.2–dc23
2014020559
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
10987654321
Contents
PrefacetotheSecondEdition ix
PrefacetotheFirstEdition xi
1 ComputingProbabilities:RightWaysandWrongWays 1
TheProbabilist 1
TheProbabilist’sToysandLanguage 4
TheProbabilist’sRuleBook 10
Independence,Airplanes,andRussianPeasants 15
ConditionalProbability,SwedishTV,andBritishCourts 20
Liar,Liar 25
CarDealersandColorBlindness 29
ShuttlecocksandSpaghettiWesterns 34
Combinatorics,Pastrami,andPoetry 40
TheVonTrappsandTheBinomialDistribution 45
FinalWord 51
2 SurprisingProbabilities:WhenIntuitionStruggles 53
Boys,Girls,Aces,andColoredCards 53
vi
CONTENTS
GoatsandGloats 58
HappyBirthday 61
TypicalAtypicalities 66
TheBritishSnobandI 72
Strategery 75
FinalWord 78
3 TinyProbabilities:WhyAreTheySoHardtoEscape? 79
ProbableImprobabilities 79
SaddamandI 83
TakingTinyRisks 89
AMillion-to-OneShot,Doc,MilliontoOne! 91
MonsieurPoissonandtheMysteriousNumber37 93
ClumpsinSpace 98
FinalWord 100
4 BackwardProbabilities:TheReverendBayestoOurRescue 101
DrivingMissDaisy 101
Bayes,Balls,andBoys(andGirls) 104
BayesandMyGreenCard 107
ObjectionYourHonor 112
Ornithology 122
FinalWord 125
5 BeyondProbabilities:WhattoExpect 127
GreatExpectations 127
ThePriceisRight(Maybe) 134
Blood,Sweat,andTheory 137
GoodThingsCometoThoseWhoWait 140
ExpecttheUnexpected 145
ExponentialGrowthtowardExtinction 149
SizeMatters(andLength,andAge) 159
Mean,Median,Mode 165
vii
CONTENTS
DeviantBehavior 171
FinalWord 176
6 InevitableProbabilities:TwoFascinatingMathematicalResults 177
AleaIactaEst,OverandOver 177
Even-Steven?TheLawMisunderstood 181
CoinTossesandFreewayCongestion 188
Let’sGetSerious 195
BellsandBread 200
HowaTorontoQuincunxChangedMyLife 204
FinalWord 206
7 GamblingProbabilities:WhyDonaldTrumpIsRicherthanYou 209
FrenchLetters 209
Roulette:AClassyWaytoWasteYourMoney 214
Craps:NotsoDiceyafterAll 219
Blackjack:MoneyforMnemonics 222
MathforLosers 227
WinMoneyandLoseFriends 234
FinalWord 245
8 GuessingProbabilities:EntertheStatisticians 247
Lies,DamnedLies,andBeautifulLies? 247
4Outof10LikethePresident19TimesOutof20 251
PollsGoneWild 257
TheSilverLining 262
TheLawsuitandtheLurker 265
FootballPlayersandGeyserEruptions 271
SnoopingintheAbbot’sGarden 278
FinalWord 284
9 FakingProbabilities:ComputerSimulation 285
MahoganyDiceandModularArithmetic 285
RandomandNot-So-RandomDigits 293
viii
CONTENTS
NumberOneisNumberOne 294
IsRandomReallyRandom? 297
FinalWord 302
Index 305