Prediction Techniques for Renewable Energy Generation and Load Demand Forecasting

208 Pages·2023·5.833 MB·English

by  Anuradha Tomar, Prerna Gaur, Xiaolong Jin

Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering 956
Anuradha Tomar
Prerna Gaur
Xiaolong Jin   Editors
Prediction
Techniques
for Renewable
Energy Generation
and Load Demand
Forecasting
Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering
Volume 956
Series Editors
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Jiming Chen, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
Shanben Chen, Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
Tan Kay Chen, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore,
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Rüdiger Dillmann, Humanoids and Intelligent Systems Laboratory, Karlsruhe Institute for Technology,
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Haibin Duan, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing, China
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Limin Jia, State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China
Janusz Kacprzyk, Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
Alaa Khamis, German University in Egypt El Tagamoa El Khames, New Cairo City, Egypt
Torsten Kroeger, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Yong Li, Hunan University, Changsha, Hunan, China
Qilian Liang, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA
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Tan Cher Ming, College of Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
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· ·
Anuradha Tomar Prerna Gaur Xiaolong Jin
Editors
Prediction Techniques
for Renewable Energy
Generation and Load
Demand Forecasting
Editors
Anuradha Tomar Prerna Gaur
Department of Instrumentation and Control Director, West Campus
Engineering Netaji Subhas University of Technology
Netaji Subhas University of Technology New Delhi, India
New Delhi, Delhi, India
Xiaolong Jin
Department of Electrical Engineering
Technical University of Denmark
Lyngby, Denmark
ISSN 1876-1100 ISSN 1876-1119 (electronic)
Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering
ISBN 978-981-19-6489-3 ISBN 978-981-19-6490-9 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6490-9
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Preface
The intermittent nature of renewable energy generation acts as a barrier to renewable
energy implementation; therefore, renewable energy generation and load prediction
become a very interesting area of research. This book gathers a wide range of research
on techniques for renewable energy generation and load forecasting. This book not
only covers the generation forecasting techniques but also has a separate section
for load forecasting. It includes systematic elaboration of the concept of intelligent
techniques for renewable energy and load forecasting. The book reflects the state
of the art in prediction techniques along with the worldwide perspective and future
trends in forecasting. It covers theory, algorithms, simulations, error, and uncertainty
analysis. It offers a valuable resource for students and researchers working in the
fields of sustainable energy generation and electrical distribution network and predic-
tion techniques. The state-of-the-art techniques in the areas like hybrid techniques,
machine learning, artificial intelligence, etc., are included in an effort to present
recent innovations in the prediction techniques for renewable energy generation and
load forecasting. The research work shared helps the researchers working in the field
of renewable energy, load forecasting, generation forecasting, power engineering,
and prediction techniques and learns the technical analysis of the same.
The book covers two sections: renewable energy generation forecasting and
load forecasting. In the first chapter “Introduction to Renewable Energy Predic-
tion Methods” deals with the introduction to renewable energy generation predic-
tion. It discusses the renewable energy status across the world and possible ways to
achieve zero-carbon energy systems and intelligent techniques to achieve efficient
generation forecasting. In the second chapter “Solar Power Forecasting in Photo-
voltaic Modules Using Machine Learning” includes solar power forecasting using
ML techniques. It covers different models for the solar power forecasting. In the third
chapter “Hybrid Techniques for Renewable Energy Prediction” covers the hybrid
techniques for renewable energy prediction. It includes different hybrid methods for
hydropower prediction, wind power prediction, and solar power prediction. Deep
learning technique for renewable energy prediction is discussed in the fourth chapter
“A Deep Learning-Based Islanding Detection Approach by Considering the Load
Demand of DGs Under Different Grid Conditions”. It includes deep learning-based
v
vi Preface
islanding detection technique. A comparison of PV power estimation methods has
been discussed in the fifth chapter “Comparison of PV Power Production Estimation
Methods Under Non-homogeneous Temperature Distribution for CPVT Systems”.
In the sixth chapter “Renewable Energy Predictions: Worldwide Research Trends
and Future Perspective” includes worldwide research trends and future perspective
for renewable energy generation. In the seventh chapter “Models of Load Fore-
casting” provides an overview and elaborates on the concept of load forecasting and
different models and state-of-the-art techniques for load forecasting. It also discusses
identified benefits and challenges/barriers to their further development. It includes
the operational issues and key challenges related to load forecasting integrated with
local grid. In the eighth chapter “Load Forecasting Using Different Techniques”, the
future load is predicted with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, namely
fuzzy logic, ANN, and ANFIS. All three methods are used for the data set consid-
ered, and the results are analyzed. In the ninth chapter “Time Load Forecasting:
A Smarter Expertise Through Modern Methods” discusses time load forecasting. It
provides an extensive review on the classical methods as well as modern techniques
for load forecasting. In the tenth chapter “Deep Learning Techniques for Load Fore-
casting” explains the deep learning techniques for load forecasting from a range of
perspectives. This chapter includes the load forecasting solutions that can address
the key challenges. This work shared helps the readers in improving their knowl-
edge in the field of power engineering and state-of-the-art forecasting techniques and
learns their technical analysis. Each chapter provides a comprehensive review and
concludes with a case study for better understanding of the reader. By following the
methods and applications laid out in this book, one can develop the necessary skills
and expertise to help have a rewarding career as a researcher.
New Delhi, India Anuradha Tomar
New Delhi, India Prerna Gaur
Lyngby, Denmark Xiaolong Jin
Contents
Introduction to Renewable Energy Prediction Methods ............... 1
Saqib Yousuf, Junaid Hussain Lanker, Insha, Zarka Mirza,
Neeraj Gupta, Ravi Bhushan, and Anuradha Tomar
Solar Power Forecasting in Photovoltaic Modules Using Machine
Learning ......................................................... 19
Bhavya Dhingra, Anuradha Tomar, and Neeraj Gupta
Hybrid Techniques for Renewable Energy Prediction ................. 29
Guilherme Santos Martins and Mateus Giesbrecht
A Deep Learning-Based Islanding Detection Approach
by Considering the Load Demand of DGs Under Different Grid
Conditions ........................................................ 61
Gökay Bayrak and Alper Yılmaz
Comparison of PV Power Production Estimation Methods Under
Non-homogeneous Temperature Distribution for CPVT Systems ....... 77
Cihan Demircan, Maria Vicidomini, Francesco Calise,
Hilmi Cenk Bayrakçı, and Ali Keçebas¸
Renewable Energy Predictions: Worldwide Research Trends
and Future Perspective ............................................. 93
Esther Salmerón-Manzano, Alfredo Alcayde,
and Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro
Models of Load Forecasting ........................................ 111
Sunil Yadav, Bhavesh Tondwal, and Anuradha Tomar
Load Forecasting Using Different Techniques ........................ 131
Arshi Khan and M. Rizwan
vii
viii Contents
Time Load Forecasting: A Smarter Expertise Through Modern
Methods .......................................................... 153
Trina Som
Deep Learning Techniques for Load Forecasting ..................... 177
Neeraj, Pankaj Gupta, and Anuradha Tomar
Editors and Contributors
About the Editors
Dr.AnuradhaTomar has 12 years plus experience in research and academics. She is
currently working as Assistant Professor in Instrumentation and Control Engineering
Department of Netaji Subhas University of Technology, Delhi, India. Dr. Tomar
has completed her postdoctoral research in Electrical Energy Systems Group, from
Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e), the Netherlands, and has successfully
completed European Commission’s Horizon 2020, UNITED GRID and UNICORN
TKI Urban Research projects as a member. She has received her B.E. Degree in Elec-
tronics Instrumentation and Control with Honours in the year 2007 from University
of Rajasthan, India. In the year 2009, she has completed her M.Tech. Degree with
Honours in Power System from National Institute of Technology Hamirpur. She has
received her Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from Indian Institute of Technology
Delhi (IITD). Dr. Anuradha Tomar has committed her research work efforts towards
the development of sustainable, energy-efficient solutions for the empowerment of
society, humankind. Her areas of research interest are operation and control of micro-
grids, photovoltaic systems, renewable energy-based rural electrification, congestion
management in LV distribution systems, artificial intelligent and machine learning
applications in power system, energy conservation and automation. She has authored
or co-authored 69 research/review papers in various reputed international, national
journals and conferences. She is Editor for books with international publications like
Springer and Elsevier. Her research interests include photovoltaic systems, micro-
grids, energy conservation and automation. She has also filed seven Indian patents
on her name. Dr. Tomar is Senior Member of IEEE and Life Member of ISTE, IETE,
IEI and IAENG.
Prof. Prerna Gaur has completed her B.Tech. in Electrical Engineering (1988),
M.Tech (1996) and Ph.D. (2009), Presently, Director, NSUT, West Campus.
Professor & founder Head in Instrumentation and Control and Electrical Engineering
Department in NSUT. Six years of Industry experience and 28 years of Teaching.
ix