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Contributions to International Relations Wei Song Positional Realism A Theory of Foreign Policy Contributions to International Relations This book series offers an outlet for cutting-edge research on all areas of international relations. Contributions to International Relations (CIR) welcomes theoreti- cally sound and empirically robust monographs, edited volumes and handbooks from various disciplines and approaches on topics such as IR-theory, international security studies, foreign policy, peace and conflict studies, international organization, global governance, international political economy, the history of international relations and related fields. Wei Song Positional Realism A Theory of Foreign Policy Wei Song School of International Studies Renmin University of China Beijing, China Translated by Shuangshuang Ma Renmin University of China Beijing, China This work was supported by the Beijing Municipal Education Commission. ISSN 2731-5061 ISSN 2731-507X (electronic) Contributions to International Relations ISBN 978-981-19-6828-0 ISBN 978-981-19-6829-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6829-7 Jointly published with Shanghai People’s Publishing House The print edition is not for sale in China (Mainland). Customers from China (Mainland) please order the print book from: Shanghai People’s Publishing House. Translation from the Chinese language edition: “位置现实主义:一种外交政策理论” by Wei Song, © Shanghai People’s Publishing House 2021. Published by Shanghai People’s Publishing House. All Rights Reserved. © Shanghai People’s Publishing House 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publishers, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publishers nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publishers remain neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore Foreword I When I was in college, my English teacher asked us to write an essay on Shakespeare’s tragedy Hamlet and asked us to include something new. We asked the teacher that since this topic has been written countless times by countless people, and everything that can be thought of has been written, how can we write new ideas? The teacher said that if there are 10,000 articles on this topic, the 10,001th article will have new ideas. There might be only one topic, but human thoughts are endless, so is knowledge innovation. Shakespeare said, “What a piece of work is a man…the beauty of the world! The paragon of animals,” because human beings have thoughts, and thoughts can be extended infinitely. Realism is the oldest theory in international relations theory, and is also one of the most studied and used theories. In the eyes of many people, the theory of realism is quite mature, and it is difficult to make new researches on realism. Looking through the international relations literature, there are many famous realists, with overwhelming researches and discussions, and astonishingly high citation rate. This is especially true in the field of international strategy and foreign policy. The theories and practices of Kissinger’s balance-of-power strategy, Brzezinski’s geostrategic Grand Chessboard, and Mearsheimer’s Tragedy of Great Power Politics, all permeate the ideas of realism. It can be said that realism is still the basic theoretical support for strategies and policy researches. In this regard, the innovation of realist theory is indeed not an easy task. Professor Song Wei’s new book “Positional Realism: A Foreign Policy Theory” is about to be published. I was asked to write a preface to this book. I gladly agreed, because when I saw the manuscript of Prof. Song Wei’s book, I recalled what my English teacher said back in university. “Knowledge innovation is endless.” The foreign policy theory of Positional Realism is a theoretical innovation, and the result of an international relations scholar’s bold hypotheses, careful conception, and rigorous argumentation in the field of knowledge. Between the lines of this v vi Foreword manuscript, there is always a sense of innovation, which once again shows the possi- bility and feasibility of knowledge production and reproduction. Even in realism, a classic international relations theory with a long history, there is still infinite potential and infinite space for further innovation. II Theories are always developing in constant innovations. The reason why realism can become a major theory of international relations is also related to its innovation. Generations of knowledge producers have made continuous efforts, inherited the core ideas of the theory, combined with the changes and development of the world, constantly enriched the connotation of the theory, and constantly shaped new knowledge growth points, which all help to shape the realism theory today. Every major innovation in realist international relations theory pushes the theory to a new peak. Edward Carr was the founder. When the idealism trend prevailed after World War I, he weighed the situation and put forward a realist thought centered on the two elements of power and interests. Although he did not construct a highly rigorous theoretical system, his thoughts provided a solid theoretical core for the evolution of post-realism. No matter what the development orientation of realism is, power and interests always run through the theoretical meridians. Morgenthau is the mastermind. He outlined the theoretical framework of realism, put forward the basic principles of realism, explained the basic concepts of power, interests, morality, etc., and constructed a realist theoretical edifice with national interests as the core. Waltz is a trailblazer. He shaped the system theory of structural realism in the way closest to natural science, and delineated the basic framework of structural realism in the most parsimonious manner. Structural theory with institutional order stability and institutional c great power behavior as the dependent variable is still very influen- tial today. Not only that, but his institutional research method has also become an important reference for Keohane’s neoliberal institutionalism and Winter’s structural constructivism. These important milestones of realism are all products of knowledge reproduction and the crystallization of innovation on the basis of realism. In the meantime, there are many novel developments in the theory of realism. For example, the theory of power transfer has achieved a breakthrough in the important variable of the international institutional structure, taking the rise and fall of power as an important factor in the international institutional structure, making Waltz’s static structural realism a dynamically changing theory. For another example, neoclassical realism after structural realism returns to the national level, and considers the reality of international politics and the orientation of national policies from the perspective of domestic factors rather than international institutional factors, and the research results also showed many new ideas. Theoretical innovations shall adhere to the mandate of renovation. Foreword vii III Professor Song Wei’s Book “Positional Realism: A Foreign Policy Theory” is a theoretical research work that discusses the great power diplomacy and has distinctive innovative points. To sum up, I think it has the following outstanding features. The first feature is position, which defines interests. It is a widely accepted hypoth- esis in international relations theory that national interests drive national behavior, but there are different opinions on the important issue of how national interests are defined. Realism generally regards survival and security as fundamental to national interests and believes that these interests are immutable. In his Book, position defines national interests, that is, positional interests, which takes the relative position of great powers in the international power structure and the position of great power in the international order position as a basic explanatory variable. If power structure is an important variable of structural realism, the order position is undoubtedly a development of realism, indicating the degree of satisfaction of a great power with the international order. When constructing a theory, positional realism divides great powers into four types according to these two criteria: hegemons, contenders, potential contenders, and non-contenders. According to this, not only can interests be determined, but can also distinguish between friends and rivals. For example, the national interest of a hegemon is to defend its hegemonic position and hegemonic order. The main rival of a hegemon is contenders; those who challenge the existing order are the rivals of the hegemon, and those who support the existing order are the friends of the hegemon. The second feature is the overall interests of a state, which determine the foreign policy of a state. Realism has always attached great importance to national interests, and there are roughly three explanations for national interests: one is the immutable fundamental interests, that is, the security and survival mentioned above; two is the domestic political process, which classical realism and neoclassical realism attach importance to. It is believed that the definition of national interest is determined by the game of domestic interest groups, so it changes with the fluctuation of the political process; three, it is determined that the state has overall interests, and the overall interests are relatively stable, but also variable. While each of these explanations makes sense, fundamental interests such as survival and security are too abstract and immutable to explain state behavior and its changes. The domestic political process is constantly changing, and the game results are capricious, making it difficult to form operational explanatory variables. The theory of overall national interest helps to identify a clear dominant variable, and also has a relatively clear guiding significance for foreign policy. So, do states, especially great powers in the international system, have a real overall national interest? Positional realism theory proposes that great powers in the international system have overall national interests. For example, the overall national interest of a hegemon is to maintain its hegemonic position, while that of contenders is to fight for the hegemonic position. Putting forward the overall interests of states around the leadership of the international system and the satisfaction of the international order is a distinct innovation of positional realism, which gives viii Foreword a clear direction to the great power foreign policy and a clear context for foreign policy research. The third feature is the combination of what is and what should be. Realism always emphasizes on what is, intervenes in what should be, and relies on what is to support what should be, and use what should be to respond to what is, which is a promi- nent feature of positional realism. Positional realism not only pays attention to the reality of material power and international relations, but also puts forward reasonable arguments in normative research, pointing out what kind of foreign strategy a state should adopt. Perhaps this is an important reason why the Author calls it foreign policy theory. Since position defines national interests, a state needs to determine its international strategy and foreign policy according to its position. The Author hypothesizes that when the power gap between the hegemon and the contender is very small, that is, within 20%, leading to tense power relationship, and contenders are challenging the international order dominated by the hegemon, creating tense order relationship, the two sides have tense strategic interest relationship, and the contender is the main rival of the hegemon; potential contenders and non-contenders whose comprehensive national power does not reach 80% of the hegemon’s national power and support the existing international order are the priority objects of alliance for the hegemon. In addition, there are also some clear hypotheses for other types of states such as the hegemon, such as judging the situation and rationally advancing and retreating. These hypotheses take into account the interstate relationship and the design of national strategies from the perspective of national power position and order satisfaction, and frame the proper scope of foreign policy, which is highly reasonable. It also has profound inspirational and practical significance. IV I have known Prof. Song Wei for nearly 20 years. The deepest impression he has left on me is that he is a scholar who is diligent in thinking, dares to question, and strives for innovation. I recalled a conversation we had in the past, when he raised a question about my Book “Hegemonic System and International Conflict,” he argued that maintaining hegemonic power position and suppressing those states with similar national power may not be the only major consideration for the hegemon. A hegemon is more concerned with whether these great powers are consistent with themselves in the global order and the regional order. Later, in his Book “Defending Hegemonic Interests” written on the basis of his doctoral dissertation, he put forward the view of hegemonic institutional position, which not only considered the issue of power position, but also explained more about institutional position, which leads to innovation in order relationship. In subsequent exchanges, this impression deepened day by day. He does not just listen to the higher-up, not just follow what is said in books, but pays attention to reality. And his reflective questions can be heard in many academic conferences. Foreword ix Professor Song Wei is also a very serious and persistent scholar, persistent and meticulous in his research. For the past twenty years, the Author has been thinking about the breakthrough and development of realism. I have once persuaded him to “forget about realism for a while.” Years of persistence and hard work finally pay off. The theory-building part of this Book shows that the Author has an accurate grasp and precise criticism of international relations theory, with only one purpose, that is, to seek reasonable innovation. The Author’s serious attitude is evident from the case studies in this Book. For the verification of positional realism, the Author uses the nineteenth-century cases, including the foreign policies of the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, the United States, France, and Austria-Hungary. A large number of historical materials consolidate the Author’s self-confidence: “When the foreign policy meets the expectations of positional realism, it will be successful; when it deviates from the expectations of positional realism, it will easily encounter setbacks.” A few days ago, I talked to a fellow scholar of my age about the development of the discipline, we both hope that a group of young and middle-aged scholars, who are focused, persistent in knowledge seeking, good at thinking, and brave in innovation, will emerge in China’s international relations academia. In Professor Song Wei’s research, I can see that he is focused and persistent, and that he commits himself in diligent thinking and innovation. Anyone who is a scholar knows that the construction of any theory is difficult, and there will be countless time of struggles; any innovation is not easy, and it must be the result of searching for thousands of times. No matter which theory, it cannot be perfect, and the process of pursuing knowledge is never-ending. However, the perseverance of scholars will always be the inexhaustible driving force for academic development, and the innovative consciousness of scholars will always be the immortal soul of knowledge production. Life has a limit, but knowledge has no limit. Pursuing the limit with the limitless knowledge, and there will be endless joys. Changwa, Beijing Yaqing Qin March 2020