Population growth and its implications for ACP rural development

56 Pages·2012·9.99 MB·English

B r D B
russels ural evelopment riefings
a aCp-eu
series of meetings on

Development issues
Population growth and its
implications for ACP rural
development
Resources on Population growth
in ACP countries1
Compiled by Isolina Boto, Head of CTA Brussels Office
and Camilla La Peccerella, Young Researcher
at the CTA Brussels Office
Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
Briefing no. 16 Compiled by Isolina Boto, Head of
CTA Brussels Office and Camilla La
Peccerella, Young Researcher at the
Resources on CTA Brussels Office
Population
Revised version September 2012
growth in ACP
The information in this document
countries1 was compiled as background
reading material for the 16th
Brussels Development Briefing
on Population growth in ACP
countries1. The Reader and most of
Brussels, 27th January 2010
the resources are available at
http://brusselsbriefings.net
Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
Index
Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................................................4
1. P opulation growth: current state and future projections .........................................................................................................5
1.1. P opulation size and growth ..............................................................................................................................................................................5
1.2 P opulation age composition ............................................................................................................................................................................8
2. The drivers of population dynamics ..........................................................................................................................................10
2.1 Fertility .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................10
2.2 M ortality and pandemics..................................................................................................................................................................................11
2.3 M igration estimates and impacts ................................................................................................................................................................12
3. D emographic growth: the specificities of Sub-Saharan Africa ..............................................................................................15
4. Population growth: the most vulnerable ...................................................................................................................................18
4.1 Youth ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................18
4.2 Women ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................19
5. H ow does population growth challenge rural development?...............................................................................................26
5.1 Population growth, urbanization and rural development.................................................................................................................26
5.2 P opulation, the environment and climate change ..............................................................................................................................29
5.2.1 The impacts of population growth on natural resources .............................................................................................................29
5.2.2 Population growth and climate change linkages ...........................................................................................................................33
6. Some policy issues .......................................................................................................................................................................40
Resources available online (English and French) ........................................................................................................................43
Websites .............................................................................................................................................................................................46
Glossary ...............................................................................................................................................................................................48
Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................................................................52
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Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
Introduction
The 21st Century will feature a first- Some of that increase will be due A key difference between
time occurrence in world history: to growth in numbers and some will demographic trends in this new
virtually all population growth will result from rising living standards. century and the past century is
be in the developing countries of Indeed, there will likely be a tradeoff the growing divergence not only
Africa, Asia, and Latin America. between the two. Much of the between regions, but even within
Population growth will no longer be increase in resource demand will them. For example, although rural
a phenomenon shared by all regions. result from rising living standards, populations still grow in Africa,
Put quite simply, the Earth will be but that, in turn, will likely depend cities such as Lagos, Nigeria, which
very different demographically at upon slowing population growth. held but 288,000 residents in
the end of this century from what It is argued that rapid population 1950, is projected by the UN to be
it was at the beginning. Beyond the growth impedes development, about 13 million today. Monitoring
shift in the balance of numbers itself, particularly when it occurs in trends such as these will be key to
many of the implications of this countries with few cash resources to understanding population trends
new world are unknown. There will, cope with both population growth today and in the future2.
of course, be significant increases and the need to expand the delivery
in the demand for food, water, and of health, education, and social
energy in developing countries. services.
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Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
1. P opulation growth: current state and future
projections
1.1. Population size
about 2.3 per cent a year, a rate persons annually from 2009 to
and growth more than double that of Asia (1 2050), but the population of the less
per cent). Asia’s population, which developed regions is projected to
is currently 4.2 billion, is expected rise from 5.6 billion in 2009 to 7.9
In 2011, world population stood at 7 to peak around the middle of the billion in 2050 and will be distributed
billion. century (5.2 billion in 2052) and to among the population aged 15-59
start a slow decline thereafter. The (1.2 billion) and 60 or over (1.1 billion)
According to the 2010 Revision populations of all other major areas because the number of children
(published in May 2011) of the official combined (the Americas, Europe and under age 15 in developing countries
United Nations population estimates Oceania) amount to 1.7 billion in 2011 will decrease.
and projections, the world population and are projected to rise to nearly 2
is projected to reach 9.3 billion billion by 2060 and then decline very At the same time, the population
in 2050. Much of this increase is slowly, remaining still near 2 billion of the least developed countries
expected to come from high fertility by the turn of the century. Among is projected more than to double,
countries, which comprise 39 in the regions, the population of Europe from 835 million inhabitants in 2009
Africa, nine in Asia, six in Oceania is projected to peak around 2025 at to 1.7 billion in 2050. Consequently,
and four in Latin America. 0.74 billion and decline thereafter. by 2050, 86 per cent of the world
population is expected to live in the
Asia will remain the most populous Between 2009 and 2050, the less developed regions, including
major area in the world in the 21st population of the more developed 18 per cent in the least developed
century, but Africa will gain ground regions will remain largely countries, whereas only 14 per cent
as its population more than triples, unchanged at 1.2 billion inhabitants will live in the more developed
increasing from 1 billion in 2011 to and would have declined to 1.15 regions3.
3.6 billion in 2100. In 2011, 60 per billion were it not for the projected
cent of the world population lives net migration from developing
in Asia and 15 per cent in Africa. to developed countries (which is
But Africa’s population is growing projected to average 2.4 million
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Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
Table: Global population growth is almost entirely concentrated in the world’s poorer countries4
Years when world population reached increments of 1 billion.
Source: UNFPA, State of the world population 2011. People and possibilities in a world of 7 billion.
http://foweb.unfpa.org/SWP2011/reports/EN-SWOP2011-FINAL.pdf
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Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
Source: UNFPA, State of the world population 2011. People and possibilities in a world of 7 billion.
http://foweb.unfpa.org/SWP2011/reports/EN-SWOP2011-FINAL.pdf
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Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
1.2 Population age
and young persons aged 15 to 24 education or employment to large
composition
accounting for a further 19 per cent. cohorts of children and youth even
In fact, the numbers of children and as the current economic and financial
Population in developing countries young people in the less developed crisis unfolds. The situation in the
still young regions are at an all time high (1.6 least developed countries is even
Currently the population of the less billion children and 1.0 billion young more pressing because children
developed regions is still young, with people), posing a major challenge under 15 constitute 40 per cent of
children under age 15 accounting for their countries, which are faced their population and young people
with 30 per cent of the population with the necessity of providing account for a further 20 per cent.
Source: Population Reference Bureau. http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011-world-population-data-sheet-presentation.pdf
In the more developed regions, reaching 528 millions in 2050, in age with a right to expect gainful
children and youth account for just the less developed regions it will employment, adequate health care,
17 per cent and 13 per cent of the continue rising, reaching 3.6 billion in and the ability to raise a family with
population, respectively, and whereas 2050 and increasing by nearly half a an appropriate living standard if they
the number of children is expected to billion over the next decade. These so choose. Before those things can
change little in the future, remaining population trends justify the urgency come about, they must have had
close to 200 million, the number of supporting employment creation access to sufficient education and
of young people is projected to in developing countries as part of training so that they can take part in
decrease from 163 million currently any strategy to address the global building their country’s society and
to 134 million in 2050. In both the economic crisis that the world is economy. Most likely, tomorrow’s
more and the less developed regions, experiencing5. youth will have moved to cities in
the number of people in the main larger numbers as opportunities
working ages, 25 to 59, is at an By 2050, the number of youth will in the rural areas diminish. But will
all time high: 603 million and 2.4 have risen from just under a half the economic conditions of their
billion, respectively. Yet, whereas billion in 1950 to 1.2 billion. At that country be able to meet their rising
in the more developed regions that point, about nine in 10 youths will be expectations? This will be one of the
number is expected to peak over the in developing countries. This very major social questions of the next
next decade and decline thereafter large group will arrive at working few decades6.
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Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
Globally, population aged 60 or over per cent per year and its numbers meet the goal of reducing under- five
is the fastest growing are expected to rise from 473 mortality by two-thirds between
Furthermore, the implications million in 2009 to 1.6 billion in 2050. 1990 and 2015, as called for in the
of population ageing cannot be Increasing longevity also contributes Millennium Development Goals.
dismissed. In the more developed to population ageing. According to the UN 2008 Revision,
regions, the population aged 60 133 of the 151 developing countries
or over is increasing at the fastest Globally, life expectancy at birth is with more than 100,000 inhabitants
pace ever (growing at 2.0 per cent projected to rise from 68 years in in 2009 will not reach that goal.
annually) and is expected to increase 2005-2010 to 76 years in 2045-2050. Furthermore, 60 developing
by more than 50 per cent over In the more developed regions, the countries, located mainly in sub-
the next four decades, rising from projected increase is from 77 years in Saharan Africa or belonging to the
264 million in 2009 to 416 million 2005-2010 to 83 years in 2045-2050, group of least developed countries,
in 2050. Compared with the more while in the less developed regions are projected to have in 2015 an
developed world, the population of the increase is expected to be from under-five mortality higher than 45
the less developed regions is ageing 66 years currently to 74 years by deaths per 1000, the less demanding
rapidly. Over the next two decades, mid-century. target set by the Programme
the population aged 60 or over in of Action of the International
the developing world is projected A major concern is that most Conference on Population and
to increase at rates far surpassing 3 developing countries are unlikely to Development7.
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Population growth and its implications for
ACP rural development
2. The drivers of population dynamics
2.1 Fertility
years, factors that militate against childbearing age in the 1960s to 62
the provision of basic services for the percent in 2009. Again, regional
According to the UN data, total population10. variations provide stark contrasts.
fertility—that is, the average number In Africa, 28 percent of married
of children a woman would bear if Fertility rates have fallen in every women use contraception; in Latin
fertility rates remained unchanged major world region, but in some America, the share is 71 percent;
during her lifetime—is 2.56 children regions the rate remains quite high. North America, 73 percent; Europe,
per woman in 2005-2010 at the Globally, the average number of 68 percent; and Asia, 67 percent10.
world level. This average masks children per woman fell from 5.0
the heterogeneity of fertility levels around 1950 to 2.6 in 2009. Sub- These projections recognize that
among countries. In 2005-2010, Saharan Africa has the highest currently fertility in Africa is quite
76 countries or areas (45 of them average at 5.3, falling from 6.7 high and contraceptive use rather
located in the more developed around 1950. Worldwide, the use of low. In only a few countries have
regions) have fertility levels below contraception rose from less than African women adopted family
2.1 children per woman, that is, 10 percent for married women of planning in a significant way.
below replacement level8, whereas childbearing age in the 1960s to 62
120 countries or areas (all of which percent in 2009. Again, regional Kenya, one of the few countries to
are located in the less developed variations provide stark contrasts. achieve some substantial fertility
regions) have total fertility levels at In Africa, 28 percent of married decline, still has a TFR of nearly
or above 2.1 children per woman. women use contraception; in Latin five children despite formulating a
America, the share is 71 percent; national population policy to slow
Although most developing countries North America, 73 percent; Europe, growth as early as 1963. The country
are already far advanced in the 68 percent; and Asia, 67 percent11. was watched by demographers
transition from high to low fertility, anticipating fertility decline, but that
seven countries still have fertility These seven countries are least did not begin until almost thirty years
levels of 6 children per woman or developed countries—Afghanistan, later. Uganda, whose TFR declined
higher in 2005-2010 and in Niger Chad, the Democratic Republic of from about 7.4 in 1988 to 6.9 in 1995,
total fertility is greater than 7 children the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Timor- would take over one hundred years
per woman. Although the fertility of Leste and Uganda—and several are to reach the “two-child” family.
those seven countries is projected highly affected by the HIV/AIDS
to decline after 2010 at a pace of epidemic. Moreover, a number of It does appear that Africa has, in fact,
about one child per decade, none is them have been experiencing civil begun the transition to lower fertility,
expected to reach 2.1 children per strife and political instability in recent although the number of countries is
woman by 2045-2050 in the medium years, factors that militate against limited. What factors favor fertility
variant. As a result, their population the provision of basic services for the decline and which might block it?
is expected nearly to triple, passing population9. In many African cultures, a large
from 159 million in 2008 to 425 number of children is highly prized
million in 2050. Fertility rates have fallen in every as it ensures the lineage of the
major world region, but in some family and provides considerable
These seven countries are least regions the rate remains quite high. prestige. Avoiding a birth may be
developed countries—Afghanistan, Globally, the average number of seen as denying an ancestor a path
Chad, the Democratic Republic of children per woman fell from 5.0 to return. Extended kinship in these
the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Timor- around 1950 to 2.6 in 2009. Sub- very rural societies means that the
Leste and Uganda—and several are Saharan Africa has the highest economic cost of a child to a couple
highly affected by the HIV/AIDS average at 5.3, falling from 6.7 is often not a consideration. Finally,
epidemic. Moreover, a number of around 1950. Worldwide, the use of decisions are rarely made as a couple
them have been experiencing civil contraception rose from less than in societies that are often male-
strife and political instability in recent 10 percent for married women of dominated (and where women in
10