Political Polling in the Digital Age: The Challenge of Measuring and Understanding Public Opinion (Media & Public Affairs)

157 Pages·2011·1.04 MB·English

by  Charlie Cook (Introduction)

Praise for
Political Polling in the Digital age
“I generally have harbored a jaundiced view that nine out of ten polls prove
what they set out to prove. This tome challenges these stereotypes. Charlie
Cook, in but one example, makes a compelling case that people like me need
to immerse ourselves more deeply into the process to separate the kernels of
wheat from survey chaff. Later, Mark Blumenthal points out that while it’s
a jungle out there in present-day Pollsterville, where traditional ‘safeguards’
are not always the norm, there remains accuracy amid the chaos. Most fas-
cinating is his proposed blueprint to standardize credibility. Political Polling
in the Digital Age is a long-needed guide in this Age of Polling.”
—james e. shelledy, former editor of The Salt Lake Tribune
The 2008 presidential election provided a “perfect storm” for pollsters. A
significant portion of the population had exchanged their landlines for cell-
phones, which made them harder to survey. Additionally, a potential Bradley
effect—in which white voters misrepresent their intentions of voting for or
against a black candidate—skewed predictions, and aggressive voter regis-
tration and mobilization campaigns by Barack Obama combined to chal-
lenge conventional understandings about how to measure and report public
preferences. In the wake of these significant changes, Political Polling in the
Digital Age, edited by Kirby Goidel, offers timely and insightful interpreta-
tions of the impact these trends will have on polling.
In this groundbreaking collection, contributors place recent developments
in public-opinion polling into a broader historical context, examine how to
construct accurate meanings from public-opinion surveys, and analyze the
future of public-opinion polling. Notable contributors include Mark Blu-
menthal, editor and publisher of Pollster.com; Anna Greenberg, a leading
Democratic pollster; and Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the
Pew Research Center.
In an era of increasingly personalized and interactive communications,
accurate political polling is more difficult and also more important. Political
Polling in the Digital Age presents fresh perspectives and relevant tactics that
demystify the variable world of opinion taking.
jim Kirby Goidel is director of Louisiana State Uni-
zie versity’s Manship School Research Facility, which
t
z
, l includes the Public Policy Research Lab and the
su
u Media Effects Lab. As senior public policy fellow
n
iv of the Reilly Center for Media & Public Affairs, he
e
r
sit directs the annual Louisiana Survey and provides
y
re analysis of the findings to government organiza-
l
a
tio tions and the media. The author of two books and
n
s numerous journal articles, he is a professor in the
Manship School of Mass Communication and the
Department of Political Science.
Charlie Cook is publisher of The Cook Political Report, a weekly columnist
for National Journal and CongressDailyAM, and a political analyst for NBC
News.
Political Polling in
the Digital age
Political Polling in
the Digital age
The Challenge of Measuring
Media & PubliC affairs
and understanding
Robert Mann, Series Editor
Public Opinion
Media & Public Affairs, a book series published by Louisiana State University
Press and the Reilly Center for Media & Public Affairs at the Manship School edited by Kirby GOidel
of Mass Communication, LSU, explores the complex relationship between
introduction by Charlie COOK
knowledge and power in our democracy. Books in this series examine what
citizens and public officials know, where they get their information, and how
they use that information to act. For more information, visit www.lsu.edu/
mpabookseries.
Political Polling in
the Digital age
The Challenge of Measuring
and understanding
Public Opinion
edited by Kirby GOidel
introduction by Charlie COOK
lOuisiana sTaTe universiTy Press
Baton Rouge
Publication of this book is supported by DeeDee and Kevin P. Reilly, Sr.
Published by Louisiana State University Press
Copyright © 2011 by Louisiana State University Press
All rights reserved
Manufactured in the United States of America
LSU Press Paperback Original
First printing
designer: Amanda McDonald Scallan
typefaces: text, Minion Pro; News Gothic MT, display
printer: McNaughton & Gunn, Inc.
binder: Dekker Bookbinding
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Political polling in the digital age : the challenge of measuring and understanding public opinion / edited by
Kirby Goidel; introduction by Charlie Cook.
p. cm. — (Media & public affairs)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8071-3829-8 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8071-3783-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Public opinion polls—United States. 2. Digital media—Political aspects—United States. 3. Mass media
and public opinion—United States. I. Goidel, Robert K., 1967–
HN90.P8P643 2011
303.3'80973—dc22
2010043002

The paper in this book meets the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Produc-
tion Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources. ∞
COnTenTs
Acknowledgments
vii
Introduction: The Meaning and Measure of Public Opinion
CHARLIE COOK
1
1.
Public Opinion Polling in a Digital Age: Meaning and Measurement
KIRBy GOIDEL
11
2.
Public Opinion Polling and Its Problems
SCOTT KEETER
28
3.
Can I Trust This Poll?
MARK BLUMENTHAL
54
4.
Poll-Centered News Coverage: Causes and Consequences
JOHANNA DUNAwAy
71
vi Contents
5.
(Un)Numbered Voices?
Reconsidering the Meaning of Public Opinion in a Digital Age
SUSAN HERBST
85
6.
Too Much Talk, Not Enough Action?
Political Expression in a Digital Age
KIRBy GOIDEL, ASHLEy KIRzINGER, AND MICHAEL XENOS
99
7.
Alternatives to Polling
ANNA GREENBERG
115
8.
Transitioning into a New Era of Public Opinion Research
KIRBy GOIDEL
124
Contributors
137
Index
141
aCKnOwledGMenTs
The essays in this volume were first presented at the Breaux Symposium
held on the LSU campus in October 2009. Each year, the Breaux Symposium
brings together leading scholars, journalists, and political professionals to
discuss an issue of national importance. I was given the opportunity to or-
ganize the 2009 symposium on the topic “The Meaning and Measurement
of Public Opinion.” Since I am heavily involved in the day-to-day work of
survey research, organizing the symposium afforded me the chance to con-
sider more deeply the work that we do in constructing questionnaires and
collecting and analyzing survey data.
My first debt of gratitude for this opportunity extends to John Maxwell
Hamilton, dean of LSU’s Manship School of Mass Communication, and
Adrienne Moore, the director of the Reilly Center for Media & Public Af-
fairs. without their commitment to the project, neither the book nor the
symposium would have been possible.
I owe a different debt to the late Tim Cook. Tim was an amazing scholar
and a wonderful colleague. His presence, intellectual leadership, rigorous
scholarship, and good humor have been deeply missed. The quality of his
work in organizing the 2003 Breaux Symposium (published as Freeing the
Presses: The First Amendment in Action by LSU Press in 2005) served as the
standard of excellence to which I aspired in putting this book together.
I also owe a debt to each of our participants—Charlie Cook, Susan
Herbst, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Keeter, Anna Greenberg, and Charles
Franklin—for taking time out of their busy schedules, traveling to Baton
Rouge, and spending an afternoon discussing the future of polling. Listening