Policy Making in an Era of Global Environmental Change PDF
Preview Policy Making in an Era of Global Environmental Change
Policy Making in an Era of Global Environmental Change Environment & Policy Volume 6 Policy Making in an Era of Global Environmental Change Edited by R. E. MUNN, J. W. M. la RIVIERE and N. VAN LOOKEREN CAMPAGNE ~. " KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS DORDRECHT/BOSTON/LONDON DiKlaimu: 'The views of individual coillribolors (chaper aUlhon and interviewtts) as expressed in their contributions are not necessarily shared by the editors and OIhercontributors. Library of Congrm Calaloging-ln-Publicallon Data Policy making in an era of global environmental change 1 edited by R. E. Munn and J. W. M.la Rivihe Ind N. vln Lookercn Campagne. p. em. - (Environment & policy; v. 6) Includes index. ISBN·13: 978-94-{)lo.n 19-9 e-ISBN·13: 978-94009-1612-8 001: 10.10071978-94-009-1612-8 I. Global environmental change - Govemment policy. I. Munn, R. E. II. La Rivi~rc, J. W. M. 111. Lookeren Campagne. N. van. IV. Series. GEI49.P6S 1996 363.700S6-dc20 96-17818 Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers. P. O. Box 17.3300 AA Dordrecht. The Netherlands. Kluwer Academic Publishers incorporatcs the publishing programmes of D. Reidel. Maninus Nijllofr. Dr W. Junk and MTP Press. Sold and diSlributcd in the U.S.A. and Canada by Kluwcr Academic Publishers. 101 Philip Drive. Norwell. MA02()61. U.S.A. In all other countries. sold and distributed by Kluwcr Academic Publishers Group. P. O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrccht. The Netherlands. Prinud (In add-fru JIllMr All Rights Reserved C 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers No part of the material protccted by this copyright notice may be reproducfil or utilized in any form or by any means. electronic or mechanical. including photocopying. recording or by any information stO<1lge and retrieval system. without written permission from the copyright owner. Contents Preface by the sponsors ix Executive summary xiii Foreword XVll 1. Global Change: Both a Scientific and a Political Issue R. E. Munn Introduction: what is global change? Examples of some recent 'global' trends 2 Global change in the 21st century 10 What are the consequent critical issues for science and for society? 13 2. The Main International Environmental Research Programmes 17 f. W. M. la Riviere Introduction 17 IGBP and WCRP 18 Other relevant research programmes 19 3. Understanding the Earth System 23 P. Williamson and P. S. Liss Introduction: cycles and systems 23 'Nothing is permanent except change', Heraclitus, c. 500 Be 29 Trapped in the ice 32 The carbon connection 34 Hydrological drivers 40 Up in the air 46 Bringing it all together 50 Epilogue 55 v VI CONTENTS 4. Understanding the Climate System 57 G.A. McBean Introduction - the climate system 58 The natural greenhouse effect 61 Temporal and spatial scales of variability 62 History of earth's climate - natural variability and its impacts 64 Human intervention - the enhanced greenhouse effect 71 Climate research - international coordination - national efforts 75 Prospects for climate prediction 76 The IPCC scenarios for future climate 81 Potential impacts of global warming 91 Climate change research in service to society 93 Summary 94 5. Policy Responses to Global Environmental Issues: an Introductory Overview 97 J. C. 1. Dooge New approaches: new partnerships 97 Sustainable development 100 The Brundtland report 100 Responses of government bodies to the Brundtland report 101 Responses of the business community to the Brundtland report 102 Responses of the scientific community to the Brundtland report 103 Economic considerations 104 Long-term environmental management 106 Involving the public 109 6. Intergovernmental Policy Responses to Global Environmental Issues 113 P. Timmerman and R. E. Munn The changing role of science in global policy 113 The need for international assessments of global environmental issues 114 An example: the climate change issue 115 Using scientific information to establish global environmental policy 118 Strategies for dealing with global environmental change 119 Range of strategies available 119 Understanding, forecasting and detecting global change 121 Actions to follow a scientific assessment 123 Future prospects 125 CONTENTS vii 7. Examples of Governmental Responses 127 P. Timmerman and R. E. Munn Range of strategies available to national governments to deal with global change 127 Knowledge-building strategies 128 Relations between national and international global change research programmes 128 Examples of some national and regional global change research programmes 129 Capacity-building strategies 133 Adaptive strategies 133 Restoration strategies 135 Concluding remarks 136 8. Examples of Responses by Business and Industry 139 N. van Lookeren Campagne; interviews by Joost van Kasteren Introductory remarks 139 The business ecosystem 139 Business spokespersons 140 The greening of business 140 Earth System research: opportunities for business 141 The sciencelbusiness interface 143 The interface 143 Science-based consultancies 143 The ICSU connection 144 Interviews with six senior members of the business and government communities in the Netherlands 144 Interview with Mr E. Van Lennep 145 Interview with if. N. G. Ketting 148 Interview with if. O. H. A. Van Royen 151 Interview with if. J. M. H. Van Engelshoven 154 Interview with Prof. Dr ir. H. H. Van den Kroonenberg 156 Interview with Dr P. Winsemius 159 9. Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations (ENGOs) 165 J. W M. La Riviere, R. E. Munn and P. Timmerman Introduction 165 Legitimacy of ENGOs; their place in society 166 Environmental advocacy 167 Relationships between business and ENGOs 167 Vlll CONTENTS Appendices 169 AI. Contact Addresses and Further Information on Authors, Supporting and Sponsoring Organizations 169 Addresses of contributors to this monograph 169 Addresses ofthe main bodies active in the field of global environmental change 170 Addresses of an international fund for global change research 172 Addresses and information on 14 Dutch businesses that assisted financially in the 1992 symposium and the preparation of this book 173 A2. List of Acronyms 179 A3. Methods for Assessing Effects of Global Change on the Biosphere and Society 181 R. E. Munn Methods available 181 Sectoral impacts of global change 182 Integrated assessments 184 The use of historical analogues 184 The Mackenzie River basin study: an integrated assessment based on scenarios 185 Socio-economic impact of sea level rise in the Netherlands 186 Applying some modem ideas on ecosystem integrity to global change assessments 186 Concluding remarks 187 A4. Instruments for Facilitating the Application of Global Change Research Results to Policy-making 189 R. E. Munn Consensus-building 189 Environmental impact assessment (EIA) and cumulative environmental assessment (CEA) 190 Establishing long-term environmental priorities 192 AS. Inventory of Adaptation Strategies Relating to Climate Change: A Canadian Example 197 Index 219 Preface by the Sponsors The preparation of this book was initiated by a Steering Committee of Chief Executive Officers of major Dutch industries and some scientists. It was set up in 1991 and was joined by six Dutch institutions interested in the science/society interface. Sixteen industries provided funding and many individuals assisted the venture by support in kind. Purpose, contents and target group Major international, interdisciplinary research programmes are underway to increase our understanding of how the Earth System operates and how it is changing. This research involves the complex physical, chemical and biological interactions between atmosphere, oceans and continents which regulate the unique environment that the Earth System pro vides for life. It involves the changes - natural and man-made - in the system and the manner in which these will affect society. The international research effort is unprecedented in scale and in the cooperation between scientists and (inter)governmental bodies. Although the understanding of the Earth System, and the prediction of its carrying capacity, are still limited, scientists already agree that significant changes in global and regional environments can be expected in the next 50 years and that these will affect the possibilities of the Earth to sustain life. Insight into the relations between the pressures on the Earth System and its carrying capacity are a prerequisite for planning a more sustainable future. Stakeholders in the global change issue and the ongoing associated research are: (l) governance at national, regional and international levels; (2) business/industry and the consumers of their products, and (3) other non-governmental interest groups. In the development of societal responses to environmental changes, it is vital that policy makers and scientists understand one another so as to make effective cooperation possible. This book aims to provide a contribution to it. The first part of the book gives a description of what is understood by global change and presents an overview of the ongoing relevant research, focusing on two major research programmes described by its scientific leaders in an easily understandable and entertaining way. In the second part an analytical overview is given of the response process exemplified by responses at the intergovernmental and governmental level, and by business and public interest groups. Thus for the first time one book describes both ongoing research work in global change and the response processes that the research results evoke. It is of interest to the IX x PREFACE BY THE SPONSORS decision makers of these stakeholders. They are the target group for which the book has been written. It is hoped that the book will assist in the process of increasing cooperation between policy makers and the scientific community. Some of the elements in this interaction brought out in this book are: The international research framework described in the first part of this book helps national research programmes to find their place, so as to avoid duplication, to save funds and manpower and to promote synergy. In this planning and coordination and also in the implementation of the programmes and the synthesizing of results, the independent, non-governmental International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) plays an important role. It also helps to ensure scientific quality of the research and especially scientific objectivity. It painstakingly adheres to non-biased fact-finding and abstains from speculative interpretation of results. It also helps to safeguard the programmes from outside pressures, while maintaining an open ear to priority needs voiced by policy makers. The Steering Committee for this monograph has been for tunate to receive the full cooperation of ICSU and of the leaders of the programmes it is involved in. The overviews of ongoing research provided in the book should fa cilitate access by the reader to the primary sources of Earth System research and thus help in separating facts from fiction and placing these facts in a wider context. - In planning the construction of major installations with a lifetime of some 40 years or longer (e.g. refineries, electricity supply, mines, dams) relevant global change issues should be taken into account. Keeping track of the research issues as they are produced can help priority setting in planning and running the installations and can provide an early warning of enhanced risks, locally and regionally. The book describes the emerging methodologies to do this. - Global change issues will affect the market place in many ways, involving e.g. agriculture, forestry, insurance and the development of energy sources. Besides new risks, new business opportunities also arise in sectors as diverse as water resource technology, air conditioning, biotechnology and dredging harbours or building coastal works. It is therefore useful to follow research results closely as well as the responses that are taking shape in international conventions and assessment structures, to which the book provides an introduction. - The new and complex aggregate of response mechanisms to expected global changes is still developing and it is for obvious reasons desirable that major stake holders participate in this process. This book attempts to assist especially the decision makers in business and industry to join on a pro-active basis those in (inter)governmental and science organizations. It is realized that this book appears early in the day, as we stand at the beginning of a development in which insight into global change processes is just beginning to be incorporated into the long-term thinking of many decision makers in society.
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