Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs: New Methods for a New

638 Pages·2009·3.44 MB·English

Policy Analysis
In National Security Affairs:
New Methods for a New Era
In today’s globalizing world of accelerating change and
mounting complexity, the United States is compelled to think and
react faster than ever before. As a result, the need for sophisticated
policy analysis in national security affairs is growing, yet awareness
of how to practice this demanding art and science at high levels of
government and for big-time policies is not widespread. This book
is written in the hope of helping improve upon today’s situation
and filling a cavernous gap in the professional literature. It provides
an appraisal of three categories of methods that can be employed to
analyze issues ranging from the lofty abstractions of national security
policy to the concrete specifics of plans, programs, and budgets.
–Richard L. Kugler, chapter 1
ndupress.ndu.edu
A Publication of the
Center for Technology and National Security Policy
National Defense University By Richard L. Kugler
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Policy Analysis in
National Security Affairs
Policy Analysis in National
Security Affairs
New Methods for a New Era

by Richard L. Kugler
Published for the
Center for teChnology and seCurity PoliCy
by national defense university Press
Washington, d.C.
2006
Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the author and
do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense or any other department or agency of the
Federal Government.
Portions of this may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line
is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. Cleared for public release;
distribution unlimited.
This is the official U.S. Government edition of this publication and is herein identified to certify its authenticity.
Use of ISBN 1-57906-070-6 is for U.S. Government Printing Office Official Editions only. The Superintendent
of Documents of the U.S. Government Printing Office requests that any reprinted edition clearly be labeled as
a copy of the authentic work with a new ISBN.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kugler, Richard L.
Policy analysis in national security affairs : new methods for a new era / by Richard L. Kugler.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1–57906–070–6
1. National security—Methodology. 2. National security—United States—Methodology.
I. Title.
UA10.5.K84 2006
355‘.03—dc22
2006044405
First Printing, June 2006
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free [phone]; Washington, DC area [phone]
Fax: [phone] Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001
Contents
Preface ........................................................ xv
Chapter 1
Why This Book is Necessary ........................................1
Chapter 2
Policy Analysis and Methodology: A Necessary Discipline for the Future ... 11
Part I—Strategic Evaluation
Chapter 3
Overview ......................................................29
Chapter 4
Analyzing Policy Options for Single Goals ...........................35
Chapter 5
Evaluating Strategies for Multiple Goals ............................. 61
Chapter 6
Forging National Security Strategy ..................................85
Chapter 7
Crafting Strategy for Alliance Leadership ........................... 115
Chapter 8
Pursuing Stability in a Dangerous World ........................... 151
Chapter 9
Promoting Economic Progress and Democracy ......................179
Part II—Systems Analysis
Chapter 10
Overview ..................................................... 211
Chapter 11
Methods of System Analysis ...................................... 215
Chapter 12
Sizing Conventional Forces ......................................255
Chapter 13
Pursuing Defense Transformation .................................287
Chapter 14
Mastering Joint Force Operations ................................. 319
Chapter 15
Modernizing Affordably .........................................349
Chapter 16
Forging Defense Budgets ........................................383
vii
viii
Part III—Operations Research
Chapter 17
Overview .....................................................423
Chapter 18
Methods of Operations Research ........................................429
Chapter 19
Designing Nuclear Forces and Missile Defenses ......................465
Chapter 20
Creating a New Overseas Military Presence ..........................497
Chapter 21
Analyzing Conventional Combat .................................525
Chapter 22
Carrying Out Expeditionary Wars .................................555
Chapter 23
Forging Investment Strategies ....................................583
Chapter 24
Conclusions ..................................................609
Postscript—Quadrennial Defense Review 2006 .....................613
Selected Bibliography .................................................619
Index ......................................................................627
About the Author ......................................................639
Illustrations
Tables
2–1. Key Questions in Policy Analysis ......................................13
4–1. Subject Areas for Analysis: A Preliminary List ............................43
5–1. Strategy Tradeoffs ...................................................74
5–2. Cost Tradeoffs .....................................................75
6–1. How Instruments and Functions Carry Out
National Security Strategy ............................................86
6–2. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ......................... 104
6–3. Composite U.S. National Security Strategies .............................111
7–1. NATO Forces of European Members ..................................138
9–1. The World Economy, 2004 ..........................................187
9–2. Exports as Share of GDP in Regional Economies, 2004 ...................188
9–3. Illustrative Global Economic Forecast (in 2004 Dollars) ..................190
9–4. Regional Growth Forecasts .......................................... 191
9–5. Composition of Economies .........................................196
9–6. Spread of Democratization
(Number of Countries, Percent of Total Countries in World) ..............200
11–1. Alternative Strategies and Force Postures ...............................223
11–2. Illustrative Buildup Rates for Ground Divisions (in Theater) ...............225
11–3. Illustrative Comparison of Forces:
Combat Units and Manpower .......................................226
11–4. Illustrative Comparison of Forces: Key Weapons ........................227
11–5. Illustrative Impact of Qualitative Factors on Force Capability ..............227
11–6. Illustrative Force Needs for a Spectrum of .............................233
Major Theater War Conflicts
11–7. Tactical Air Program ...............................................236
11–8. Comparison of Options Based on Numbers of
Aircraft and Sorties ................................................240
11–9. Comparison of Options Based on Performance
Characteristics for One-Month War ................................... 241
11–10. Comparison of Three Options (Assuming 30-Day War). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
11–11. Composition of Optimal Investment Strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .248
11–12. Utility Points for Time-Phased Procurement
of Multiple Weapons ...............................................250
12–1. Status of NATO’s Defenses in Central Europe, Late 1980s .................260
12–2. Illustrative U.S. Force Allocations for Global War, 1980s ..................262
12–3. Alternative U.S. Conventional Defense Postures .........................272
ix
x POLICY ANALYSIS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
12–4. Composition of U.S. Military Forces, 2004 .............................275
12–5. U.S. Army Active Force Structure, 2004 ................................277
12–6. U.S. Air Force Aircraft, 2004 .........................................278
14–1. U.S. Military Forces and Firepower for Land Warfare .....................326
14–2. Estimated Size and Weight of an Army Heavy Corps .....................333
14–3. Proposed Expeditionary Strike Army ..................................339
14–4. Composition of Notional Army Stabilization
and Reconstruction Division ........................................343
15–1. Major Weapons Systems in Current Inventory ..........................359
15–2. Age Profiles for Military Aircraft ......................................360
15–3. Distribution of DOD Procurement Funds, 2005 (Budget Authority) ........ 361
15–4. Distribution of Service Procurement Funds
Among Different Accounts, 2005 (Budget Authority, in $Billions) ..........362
15–5. Major Aircraft Modernization Programs (Budget Authority) ...............364
15–6. Air Force/Navy Fighter Inventory, 2004 ................................366
15–7. Navy Force Levels and Construction Plans .............................374
15–8. Navy Shipbuilding Program, 2005 ...................................375
15–9. Composition of Surface Combatant Force, 2005 ........................377
15–10. Proposed New Surface Combatants ...................................377
16–1. DOD Impact on the Domestic Economy ...............................387
16–2. Trends in Defense Budgets (Budget Authority) ..........................390
16–3. Trends in DOD Budget and Manpower ...............................392
16–4. Future Defense Top-Lines (Budget Authority) ...........................393
16–5. Distribution of Service Shares of Total DOD Budget (Budget Authority) .....397
16–6. Service Acquisition Funds (Budget Authority) ...........................398
16–7. Distribution of Program Spending (TOA) ..............................399
16–8. Allocation of Funds Between Combat and Support Programs ..............402
16–9. Spending Patterns for Functional Activities (Budget Authority) .............404
16–10. Trends in O&M Budgets (including Health Care) ........................406
16–11. O&M Budget for Fiscal Year 2005 (Budget Authority, Current $Billions) .....408
16–12. Distribution of RDT&E Budget, 2005 .................................409
16–13. Sampling of Major Items in RDT&E Effort. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410
16–14. Alternative Distributions of 2009 Defense Budget (Current $Billions) ....... 412
16–15. Future Procurement Budgets for New Weapons versus
Requirements for 2005–2020 (Current $Billions) ....................... 414
16–16. Toward a Proposed New Set of Defense Programs ....................... 416
16–17. Toward New Functional Categories for the Defense Budget ................ 417
18–1. Illustrative Kill Probability as Function of U.S. Tanks Used ................436
18–2. Binomial Distribution of Successes ...................................437
18–3. Illustrative Impact of Force Levels on Battlefield Prospects ................438
18–4. Illustrative Impact of Improvement Programs on Battlefield Prospects .......439
TABLES AND FIGURES xi
18–5. Symmetrical Stalemate Battle ........................................442
18–6. Illustrative Multi-attribute Utility Analysis of U.S.
Armored Division (circa 1980s) ......................................446
18–7. U.S. Strategic Goals in Endangered Region .............................448
18–8. Payoff Categories .................................................. 451
18–9. Alternative Strategies ...............................................452
18–10. Impact of Remedies ................................................453
18–11. Payoff Table for Game Theory (Utility Points for Blue) ...................454
18–12. Payoff Table for Game of Mixed Strategies ..............................456
18–13. Illustrative Fighter Capabilities and Performance Goals ...................460
18–14. Constraint Equations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
19–1. Game Theory Matrix of Nuclear Strategies ..............................467
19–2. Impact of Qualitative Improvements on Missile Performance .............. 471
19–3. Assured Destruction Calculus ........................................473
19–4. U.S. Nuclear Forces Surviving a First Strike .............................477
19–5. Estimated Performance of an ABM System, Late 1960s ................... 481
19–6. Cost-Exchange Ratios for ABM Defense ................................482
19–7. Illustrative Capacity of Mid-Course Intercept System to
Defeat Limited Attack of 20 Non-MIRVed ICBMs ........................489
19–8. Illustrative Capacity of Mid-Course Intercept System to
Defeat MIRVed ICBM Attack of 20 Missiles with 60 Warheads .............490
19–9. Performance of a Combined BPI/MCI System for NMD .................. 491
20–1. Expected Strategic Performance of Current
Overseas Presence (Verbal Model) .................................... 515
20–2. Expected Strategic Performance of Current
Overseas Presence (Utility Scores) .................................... 516
20–3. Performance of Overseas Presence Options
(Strategic Utility Points) ............................................ 519
20–4. Illustrative Future U.S. Overseas Presence (Manpower) ...................523
21–1. A Dreadnought Battle: How the Strongest Side Wins ......................532
21–2. Interaction of Force Ratio and Exchange Ratio:
Simple Model of Kill Probabilities ....................................534
21–3. Illustrative Combat Performance of Fighter Wing
(Performance Metrics) ..............................................549
22–1. Impact of Branches and Sequels ......................................579
23–1. Illustrative Comparison of Life-Cycle Costs for New
Fighter Aircraft ($, Constant) ........................................586
23–2. Comparing Cost Streams and Benefit Streams ..........................589
23–3. Impact of Joint Operations on Performance by Current U.S. Forces ......... 591
23–4. Impact of Alternative Investment Strategies .............................593
23–5. Aircraft Capabilities and Performance Requirements .....................596
23–6. Constraint Equations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .596