PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2021 : from protest to progress?.

224 Pages·2021·5.531 MB·English

by  ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT: DEVELOPMENT CENTRE.

Perspectives on Global
Development 2021
FROM PROTEST TO PROGRESS?

Perspectives on Global
Development
2021
FROM PROTEST TO PROGRESS?
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Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2021), Perspectives on Global Development 2021: From Protest to Progress?, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/405e4c32-en.
ISBN 978-92-64-59954-3 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-80770-9 (pdf)
Perspectives on Global Development
ISSN 2222-4467 (print)
ISSN 2222-4475 (online)
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© OECD 2021
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Foreword
Since 2010, the OECD Development Centre’s Perspectives on Global Development (PGD) series has
investigated trends in developing countries and their place in the global economy. The series started by
examining the increasing weight of developing countries in the world economy, a phenomenon it referred
to as “shifting wealth”. In 2008, the share of non-OECD countries in world gross domestic product
surpassed that of OECD member countries and many developing countries were on course to converge
with advanced economies.
Each subsequent edition of the PGD examined the effect of this trend on development, focusing on
different policy concerns, from social cohesion (2012) and industrial policy (2013) to productivity and the
middle-income trap (2014) and international migration (2017). The 2019 edition examined the evolution of
development paradigms and investigated how developing countries can design development strategies
that respond to the challenges of the 21st century.
The 2021 edition examines the global surge in discontent in countries between the global financial crisis
and the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020. Although this phenomenon was evident in
countries at all income levels, the report focuses principally on developing countries to understand where
and why discontent has risen. It demonstrates that beneath the headlines of the Shifting Wealth story –
developing countries’ sustained economic growth, their success in reducing poverty and the emergence
of middle classes across the Global South – lurk frustrations, vulnerabilities and inequalities that have
taken a toll on people’s life satisfaction and weakened social cohesion. These are set to worsen in the
wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report comprises five chapters. The first discusses how near-unbroken economic growth in countries
at all income levels between 1990 and 2018 coincided with rising within-country inequalities and uneven
improvements in living standards. It explains how global economic activity was closely linked to
environmental devastation and imposed pressure on large portions of the labour force. The second chapter
examines the evidence of discontent in different regions with reference to high-level political indicators and
analyses citizens’ grievances about the state of the economy, the quality of public services and
opportunities to interact with the government. The third chapter argues that discontent emerges from the
interaction of these grievances with weakening social cohesion and adverse political trends.
The fourth and fifth chapters examine how to alleviate discontent. Chapter 4 identifies mechanisms by
which national governments can simultaneously strengthen social cohesion and promote development.
Chapter 5 explores the global dimensions of discontent and explains how the multilateral system needs to
evolve in response.

PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2021 © OECD 2021
4 
Acknowledgements
The 2021 edition of the OECD’s Perspectives on Global Development was prepared by the OECD
Development Centre under the guidance of its Director, Mario Pezzini. The report was co-ordinated and
written by Alexander Pick, in collaboration with Alexandre Kolev (Chapter 1) and Katharine Parry
(Chapters 2 and 3). Jingjing Xia and Quynh Hoang provided valuable statistical assistance.
The report was proofread by Jessica Hutchings and Elizabeth Holbourne. Elizabeth Nash and Delphine
Grandrieux from the Development Centre’s publications team turned the report into a publication. Layout
and infographics were provided by Aida Buendia and Irit Perry. Myriam Andrieux provided administrative
support.
The report benefited greatly from comments and substantive inputs from the following colleagues at the
OECD Development Centre: Jhalak Aggarwal, Federico Bonaglia, Adriana Caicedo, Rita Da Costa, Marin
Fouere, Jason Gagnon, Elizabeth Holbourne, Thang Nguyen, Hyeshin Park, Ruya Perincec, Annalisa
Primi, Jan Rielaender, Sofia Scialoja, Henri-Bernard Solignac Lecomte, Bakary Traoré, Juan Vázquez
Zamora, Jingjing Xia and Felix Zimmerman. Comments received during a meeting of the Governing Board
of the OECD Development Centre on 9 April 2021 were also highly valued.
Comments and suggestions were also gratefully received from colleagues in other OECD directorates:
Kate Conford (on behalf of the Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities), Joseph Stead
(Centre for Tax Policy and Administration), Sam Mealy (Development Co-operation Directorate), Guy
Halpern (Environment Directorate), the Global Relations Secretariat, William Hynes (New Approaches to
Economic Challenges Unit), David Winickoff (Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation) and
Duncan Cass-Beggs (Strategic Foresight Unit).
The report also greatly benefited from discussions with and comments from an experts group comprising
Yuen Yuen Ang (University of Michigan), Bertrand Badie (Sciences Po University), Debapriya
Bhattacharya (Centre for Policy Dialogue), Milindo Chakrabarti, (Research and Information Systems for
Developing Countries), Colin Crouch (University of Warwick), Martine Durand, Pierre-Noël Giraud (Mines
ParisTech), Richard Kozul-Wright (UNCTAD), Stefano Manservisi and Jacques Ould Aoudia (Royal
Institute of Strategic Studies, Morocco). This group met virtually on 30 June 2020 and 8 December 2020.
Gilles Gressani of Le Grand Continent provided valuable comments on the report. The authors would also
like to thank Lucy Bates (University of Sussex), Neil Brenner (University of Chicago), James Brazier and
Nick Morgan (Newcastle University) for their ideas during the preparation of the report, and to acknowledge
the contribution of Ron Gass.
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2021 © OECD 2021
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Table of contents
Foreword 3
Acknowledgements 4
Editorial 9
Executive summary 10
Overview 12
1 Discontent in an era of growth 25
Introduction 26
The world pre-COVID-19: The best of times? 26
Gains in income and wealth have not been equally shared 32
Not all well-being indicators have kept pace with income growth 39
The global labour force is increasingly atomised and polarised 43
Humanity has brought environmental catastrophe upon itself 50
Conclusion 54
Notes 55
References 55
2 The case for global discontent 65
Introduction 66
Making the case for discontent 66
Subjective indicators and contingent causes of discontent 77
Conclusion 85
References 85
3 The structural causes and politics of discontent 93
Introduction 94
The complexities of inequality and discontent 94
The sociological factors behind discontent 99
The politics of discontent 108
Digital technology and discontent 116
Conclusion 120
References 120
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2021 © OECD 2021
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4 From protest to participation 131
Introduction 132
The social drivers of development 132
Harnessing society’s power to escape the development traps 138
The political red line 152
A new logic for national strategies 157
What is stopping us? 160
Conclusion 165
References 166
5 Global governance in an era of discontent 179
Introduction 180
Discontent from abroad 180
The chequered history of multilateralism 186
Who runs the world? 197
New visions for multilateralism 203
Conclusion 208
References 209

Figures
Figure 1. Global economic growth rates, 1990-2018 13
Figure 2. Number of protests in selected regions, 1991-2019 14
Figure 3. Those who profess to have confidence in their national government 15
Figure 4. Those who are living comfortably or getting by on their current household income, 2007 and
2018 16
Figure 5. Social capital flows in a stylised representation of society 19
Figure 6. Stylised model of a divided economy 20
Figure 1.1. Global economic growth rates, 1990-2018 28
Figure 1.2. Global trends in wealth creation, 2000-19 28
Figure 1.3. Wealth share by region in 2000 and 2019 29
Figure 1.4. Global trends in poverty reduction, 1990-2015 30
Figure 1.5. Share of total population and the poorest quintile with access to social protection 31
Figure 1.6. Income inequality in 2000 and 2015 32
Figure 1.7. Relative income inequality (Gini index) by region 33
Figure 1.8. Life satisfaction and inequality 34
Figure 1.9. Global trends in wealth per adult by region, 2000-19 36
Figure 1.10. Evolution of GRP per capita in China (five-year average), 1993-97, 2003-07 and 2015-19 37
Figure 1.11. Ranking of GRP per capita for China’s rust-belt provinces, 1993-2019 38
Figure 1.12. General-purpose transfer payments per capita from central to local governments in China, 2015
and 2018 39
Figure 1.13. Global trends in life satisfaction and negative feelings, 2006-19 40
Figure 1.14. Global trends in key well-being indicators, 1990-2017 40
Figure 1.15. Relative life expectancy at birth by region, 2018 41
Figure 1.16. Stunting rate comparison between the bottom and top income quintiles 42
Figure 1.17. Labour productivity growth by income group and region, 2000-17 45
Figure 1.18. Trends in labour productivity and wages, 1999-2017 46
Figure 1.19. Social insurance coverage comparison between the bottom and top income quintiles 50
Figure 1.20. Global trends in CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita, 1990-2014 52
Figure 1.21. Forest land area coverage by income group, 1990-2016 53
Figure 1.22. Global trends in PM2.5 concentration and GDP per capita, 1990-2017 54
Figure 2.1. Number of protests in selected regions, 1991-2019 67
Figure 2.2. Violent and non-violent protests in Africa and Asia-Pacific, 1991-2019 68
Figure 2.3. Number of protests in autocracies in selected regions, 2003-18 69
Figure 2.4. Voter turnout in parliamentary elections, 1958-2018 72
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2021 © OECD 2021
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Figure 2.5. Those who believe that democracy is preferable to any other sort of government 73
Figure 2.6. Evolution of democracy in developing countries by region, 2006-20 74
Figure 2.7. Those who profess to have confidence in national government 75
Figure 2.8. Confidence in national government by income quintile, 2018 76
Figure 2.9. Confidence in national government in selected LAC countries, 2018 76
Figure 2.10. Attitudes towards national and local officials vary 77
Figure 2.11. Those who are living comfortably or getting by on their current household income, 2007 and 2018 79
Figure 2.12. Expected versus actual change in life ranking between 2014 and 2019 81
Figure 2.13. Individuals who voiced their opinion to an official in the past month, by income, 2018 85
Figure 3.1. Those who have friends or relatives to count on in times of trouble, by income, 2018 100
Figure 3.2. Trust in leaders 102
Figure 3.3. Those who think that other people can generally be trusted, selected economies 103
Figure 3.4. Those who experienced stress yesterday 104
Figure 3.5. Attitudes towards migration and the environment, by income 107
Figure 3.6. Individuals who trust scientists in their country, 2018 108
Figure 4.1. Social capital flows in a stylised representation of society 135
Figure 4.2. A stylised model of a full employment economy 137
Figure 4.3. Stylised model of a divided economy 139
Figure 4.4. Average tax-to-GDP ratios for Africa, LAC and the OECD, 2000-18 143
Figure 4.5. Representation of political insiders/outsiders 154
Figure 4.6. Tax structure for Africa, LAC and OECD averages as a percentage of total tax revenues and of
GDP, 2018 162
Figure 5.1. Share of UN member states that are members of the IOM, 1954-2019 191

Boxes
Box 1.1. The COVID-19 pandemic will have long-term effects on developing countries 27
Box 1.2. Regional inequality and government responses in China 36
Box 1.3. Wages have not kept pace with productivity gains 45
Box 1.4. The rise of the precariat 48
Box 2.1. The evolution of labour unrest in China 71
Box 2.2. Unrest in Chile: From metro fares to a new constitution 79
Box 3.1. Gender-based discontent 98
Box 3.2. The political polarisation of language and fragmentation of reality 111
Box 3.3. The mixed evidence of populism in developing countries 115
Box 4.1 Expanding perspectives on the social contract 136
Box 4.2. The knowledge and know-how behind firm expansion 141
Box 4.3 Participatory processes and the power to transform 146
Box 4.4. Subsidy reform in a divided economy: The contentious case of fuel subsidies 151
Box 4.5. Rethinking decentralisation for experimentation 155
Box 4.6. Placing the environment front and centre 159
Box 5.1. Locusts, conflict and climate change 183
Box 5.2. The gaps and limitations of migration governance 190
Box 5.3. The energy transformation: A paradigmatic development challenge 195
Box 5.4. Rethinking space and states 199
Box 5.5. Can the subaltern speak? 207

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