Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2

342 Pages·2010·32.209 MB·English

by  Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
Persistent Forecasting oF
DisruPtive technologies – rePort 2
Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
COMMITTEE ON FORECASTINg FuTuRE DISRuPTIvE TECHNOLOgIES
GILMAN G. LOUIE, Chair, Alsop Louie Partners, San Francisco
PRITHWISH BASU, BBN Technologies, Cambridge, Massachusetts
HARRY BLOUNT, DISCERN, Hillsborough, California
RUTH A. DAVID, Analytic Services, Inc (ANSER), Arlington, Virginia
STEPHEN DREW, Drew Solutions, Inc., Summit, New Jersey
MICHELE GELFAND, University of Maryland, College Park
DANNY GRAY, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
JENNIE S. HWANG, H-Technologies Group, Cleveland, Ohio
ANTHONY K. HYDER, Univerity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana
FRED LYBRAND, Elmarco, Inc., Chapel Hill, North Carolina
PAUL SAFFO, Saffo.com, Burlingame, California
PETER SCHWARTZ, Global Business Network, San Francisco
NATHAN SIEGEL, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico
ALFONSO VELOSA III, Gartner, Inc., Tucson, Arizona
NORMAN D. WINARSKY, SRI International, Menlo Park, California
Staff
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director
KAMARA BROWN, Research Associate
SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate
SHANNON THOMAS, Program Associate

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
Preface
Monitoring and harnessing the power of global technological innovation are necessary tasks for any nation that
seeks to promote the well-being and safety of its citizens. Globally interconnected business, financial, social, and
political networks connect more people than ever before to the positive and negative disruptive impacts of novel
uses of technology. The increased spread of knowledge and opportunity throughout the world has been accompanied
by an increase in technological innovation, particularly from smaller organizations and nontraditional sectors. The
purpose of a forecasting system for disruptive technologies is to minimize surprise related to disruptive innovation
and to prepare decision makers for the future. To assess current forecasting methods and aid in the development
of a next-generation forecasting system, the Defense Warning Office of the Defense Intelligence Agency and the
Director of Defense Research and Engineering requested that the National Research Council (NRC) establish the
Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies.
This is the second of the two reports requested by the sponsoring organizations. In its first report ((NNaattiioonnaall
Research Council, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptie Technologies, The National Academies Press, Washington,
D.C., 2010),, tthhee ccoommmmiitttteeee ddeeffiinneess ��ddiissrruuppttiivvee tteecchhnnoollooggyy,,���� aannaallyyzzeess eexxiissttiinngg ffoorreeccaassttiinngg ssttrraatteeggiieess aanndd mmeetthhooddss,,
and discusses in detail the characteristics of a long-term persistent forecasting system. In this report, the committee
attempts to create a model for a buildable forecasting system incorporating many of the methods and characteristics
outlined in the first report.
As chair, I wish to express appreciation to the members of this committee for their earnest contributions to
the generation of this report. The members are grateful for the interest and assistance of many members of the
technology and forecasting community, as well as to the sponsors for their support. The committee would also
like to express sincere appreciation for the support and assistance of NRC staff members Michael Clarke, Daniel
Talmage, Kamara Brown, Sarah Capote, and Shannon Thomas; Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy
Fellow Sarah Lovell; and technical writer Linda Voss.
Gilman G. Louie, Chair
Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies
ii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical
expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review
Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the
institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional stan-
dards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript
remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals
for their review of this report:
Andrew Brown, Jr., NAE, Delphi Corporation,
Natalie W. Crawford, NAE, The RAND Corporation,
Alexander H. Flax, NAE, Potomac, Maryland,
Brig Gen Allison Hickey, USAF (Ret.), Accenture National Security Services,
Thom J. Hodgson, NAE, North Carolina State University,
Darrell Long, University of California, Santa Cruz,
Christopher L. Magee, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Raghunath A. Mashelkar, NAS/NAE, National Chemical Laboratory, and
Ray Strong, IBM Almaden Research Center.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were
not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by Maxine Savitz (NAE), Honeywell (Ret.), and Michael Zyda,
University of Southern California. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an inde-
pendent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review
comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the
authoring committee and the institution.
iii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION 11
Study Overview, 11
Report Structure, 12
Defining �Disruptive Technologies,�� 13
Pitfalls in Forecasting, 13
A Need for Enhanced Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, 13
Importance of Forecasting to the Department of Defense, 13
Technology and Disruption in the 21st Century, 14
Key Requirements for System Models, 16
Persistence, 17
Openness and Crowdsourcing, 17
Creativity and Tolerance for Failure, 19
Predictions Versus Roadmaps, 19
Framework for Model Building, 20
Insights from the Workshop, 22
Flexibility and Leadership, 22
Narrative Focus, 23
Funding, 23
Risk Management, 23
References, 24
Published, 24
Unpublished, 24
2 MODEL DESIGN OPTIONS FOR FORECASTING SYSTEMS 25
First Forecasting System: Intelligence Cycle Option, 26
The Input of a Question, 26
Processes, 26
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