Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration PDF
Preview Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration
Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration PATHWAYS TO EXPLORATION RATIONALES AND APPROACHES FOR A U.S. PROGRAM OF HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION Committee on Human Spaceflight Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report is based on work supported by Contract NNH10CC48B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-30507-5 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-30507-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2014950546 Cover: Design by Tim Warchocki. Copies of this report are available free of charge from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in sci- entific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad com- munity of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the govern- ment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.nationalacademies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD Autonomy Research for Civil Aviation: Toward a New Era of Flight (Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2014) Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society (Space Studies Board [SSB] with ASEB, 2013) Continuing Kepler’s Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command’s Astrodynamics Standards (ASEB, 2012) NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA’s Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space (ASEB, 2012) NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, 2012) Recapturing NASA’s Aeronautics Flight Research Capabilities (SSB and ASEB, 2012) Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment (ASEB, 2012) Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011) Preparing for the High Frontier—The Role and Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Space Shuttle Era (ASEB, 2011) Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (ASEB, 2011) Advancing Aeronautical Safety: A Review of NASA’s Aviation Safety-Related Research Programs (ASEB, 2010) Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board with SSB and ASEB, 2010) Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies (SSB with ASEB, 2010) Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years: An International Public Seminar Series Organized by the Space Studies Board: Selected Lectures (SSB with ASEB, 2010) Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era of Space Exploration: An Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010) America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009) An Assessment of NASA’s National Aviation Operations Monitoring Service (ASEB, 2009) Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2009 Engineering and Physical Science Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2009) Fostering Visions for the Future: A Review of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (ASEB, 2009) Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Limited copies of ASEB reports are available free of charge from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-2858/[email protected] www.nationalacademies.org/aseb iv Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration COMMITTEE ON HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT MITCHELL E. DANIELS, JR., Purdue University, Co-Chair JONATHAN LUNINE, Cornell University, Co-Chair BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (emeritus professor) MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates Inc. PASCALE EHRENFREUND, George Washington University JAMES S. JACKSON, University of Michigan FRANK G. KLOTZ,1 Council on Foreign Relations FRANKLIN D. MARTIN, Martin Consulting, Inc. DAVID C. MOWERY, University of California, Berkeley (emeritus professor) BRYAN D. O’CONNOR, Independent Aerospace Consultant STANLEY PRESSER, University of Maryland HELEN R. QUINN, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (emeritus professor) ASIF A. SIDDIQI, Fordham University JOHN C. SOMMERER, Johns Hopkins University (retired) ROGER TOURANGEAU, Westat, Inc. ARIEL WALDMAN, Spacehack.org CLIFF ZUKIN, Rutgers University, The State University of New Jersey Staff SANDRA GRAHAM, Senior Program Officer, Study Director MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board ABIGAIL SHEFFER, Associate Program Officer AMANDA R. THIBAULT, Research Associate DIONNA J. WILLIAMS, Program Coordinator F. HARRISON DREVES, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern, Summer 2013 JINNI MEEHAN, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern, Fall 2013 CHERYL MOY, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow, Fall 2012 SIERRA SMITH, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern, Fall 2013 PADAMASHRI SURESH, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow, Winter 2014 PUBLIC AND STAKEHOLDER OPINIONS PANEL ROGER TOURANGEAU, Westat, Inc., Chair MOLLY ANDOLINA, DePaul University JENNIFER L. HOCHSCHILD, Harvard University JAMES S. JACKSON, University of Michigan ROGER D. LAUNIUS, Smithsonian Institution JON D. MILLER, University of Michigan STANLEY PRESSER, University of Maryland CLIFF ZUKIN, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey Staff KRISZTINA MARTON, Senior Program Officer, Committee on National Statistics CONSTANCE CITRO, Director, Committee on National Statistics JACQUELINE R. SOVDE, Program Associate, Committee on National Statistics 1 General Klotz resigned from the committee on April 10, 2014, to take up an appointment as under secretary of energy for nuclear security and administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration. v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration TECHNICAL PANEL JOHN C. SOMMERER, Johns Hopkins University (retired), Chair DOUGLAS S. STETSON, Space Science and Exploration Consulting Group, Vice Chair ARNOLD D. ALDRICH, Aerospace Consultant DOUGLAS M. ALLEN, Independent Consultant RAYMOND E. ARVIDSON, Washington University in St. Louis RICHARD C. ATKINSON, University of California, San Diego (professor emeritus) ROBERT D. BRAUN, Georgia Institute of Technology ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory DAVID E. CROW, University of Connecticut (professor emeritus) RAVI B. DEO, EMBR ROBERT S. DICKMAN, RD Space, LLC DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN ROGACKI, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition (Ocala) GUILLERMO TROTTI, Trotti and Associates, Inc. LINDA A. WILLIAMS, Wyle Aerospace Group Staff ALAN C. ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board DIONNA J. WILLIAMS, Program Coordinator, Space Studies Board vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD LESTER LYLES, The Lyles Group, Chair PATRICIA GRACE SMITH, Patti Grace Smith Consulting, LLC, Vice Chair ARNOLD D. ALDRICH, Aerospace Consultant, Vienna, Virginia ELLA M. ATKINS, University of Michigan STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering BRIAN J. CANTWELL, Stanford University ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory EILEEN M. COLLINS, Space Presentations, LLC RAVI B. DEO, EMBR VIJAY DHIR, University of California, Los Angeles EARL H. DOWELL, Duke University ALAN H. EPSTEIN, Pratt & Whitney KAREN FEIGH, Georgia Institute of Technology PERETZ P. FRIEDMANN, University of Michigan MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute JOHN M. OLSON, Sierra Nevada Corporation HELEN L. REED, Texas A&M University AGAM N. SINHA, ANS Aviation International, LLC JOHN P. STENBIT, Consultant, Oakton, Virginia ALAN M. TITLE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center DAVID M. VAN WIE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration SPACE STUDIES BOARD DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University, Chair JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Space Systems Loral (retired), Vice Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University JAMES G. ANDERSON, Harvard University JAMES P. BAGIAN, University of Michigan JEFF M. BINGHAM, U.S. Senate Committee Staff (retired), Consultant, Round Hill, Virginia PENELOPE J. BOSTON, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation THOMAS R. GAVIN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory NEIL GEHRELS, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research RODERICK HEELIS, The University of Texas, Dallas WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, JR., Carnegie Institution of Washington ANTHONY C. JANETOS, Boston University DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SAUL PERLMUTTER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LOUISE M. PROCKTER, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona MARK THIEMENS, University of California, San Diego MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University CLIFFORD M. WILL, University of Florida THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant viii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS LAWRENCE D. BROWN, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Chair JOHN M. ABOWD, Cornell University MARY ELLEN BOCK, Purdue University DAVID CARD, University of California, Berkeley ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Iowa State University MICHAEL E. CHERNEW, Harvard Medical School CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Brown University JAMES S. HOUSE, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MICHAEL HOUT, University of California, Berkeley SALLIE KELLER, Virginia Polytechnic Institute LISA LYNCH, Brandeis University COLM O’MUIRCHEARTAIGH, University of Chicago RUTH PETERSON, Ohio State University EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Columbia University and Arizona State University HAL STERN, University of California, Irvine CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director JACQUELINE R. SOVDE, Program Associate ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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